Quote:
Originally Posted by Badslinkie
Yes he is the button.
My general thinking is that he isn't great at bet sizing like a lot of the Recish players at 1/2. 40$ was the biggest he bet in 3 hours of sitting at the table with him. I honestly think that he believed he was bombing the turn and I thought so in the moment too. That being said I didn't think think he would bet the turn with a queen just because of how much is out there.
Ok then it becomes a math problem, breaking down his range and your impression of this villain. He needs to fold 33% of the time to a half pot bet, 43% to a 3/4 pot bet and 50% to a pot bet for your river bet to be profitable.
Some villains at 1/2 just don't like to fold boats, even underfills. Last night on an AAAJ7 board i saw 99 call flop, turn and then a $50 2/3 pot river bet and V had A8, his hand on the river is a bluff catcher but he pretty quickly called the river bet. The V with 99 was not a spewey player and the V with quads had literally sat down 2 hands earlier so wasn't some crazy lag. Not exactly the same hand/situation but not far off either.
Surely it's possible it can be a good bluff spot but i find at 1/2, as you noted, trying to bluff people off strong absolute/relative hands isn't something i'm trying to do.