This is a typical loose game for late saturday night with lots of bloated multiway pots and little folding. Villian is a mid 50's woman who has been playing assertively, not bluffing but overplaying some made hands like betting TP weak kicker 3 streets or leading with second pair multiway. She is playing a very wide range when limping including any two suited cards and random hands like K6o. She had a big stack but has given away about $300 or so in the last 30 minutes chasing draws and on one semicooler.

4 limpers
Villian $250 in co calls
Hero covers calls J8s on button
blinds call 8 way to the flop
pot $16
flop KT4
All check to hero who bets $12, 2 callers
pot $48
turn Q I now have 2nd nuts.
check villian leads $32 seeming very confident in her hand
hero decides to call $32, other player folds. Villian has shown willingness to fold to raises in this situation so I think she may fold many hands I have beat except smaller flushes. I decide to let her hang herself.
pot $112
river Q
Villian instaships whole stack $200 for me to call. I think my plan worked too well. This is the first time villian has shoved in 3hours. I'm now wishing I raised turn since I'm left guessing. Is this a call or a fold? I believe villian thinks her hand is good but don't think she really understands hand values.

Snap call.

Plus you said it yourself, she has just lost $300 to chasing draws and semi-coolers, and she could very well be on tilt.

Yes, she could back into a hand like QT, and the line makes sense, but considering the tilt factor, I think it's a clear call here.

OTT-I like the call since you said she likes to overplay her hands.

OTR-call. Villain could have called the flop with something like QJ or AQ and backed into trips. She could have called with a GS and turned a straight. She could also have a smaller flush since you said she plays all of her suited cards.

On the turn you made the plan to call to let her hang herself. Why would you change this plan on the river? If you make a plan, make sure it is right when formulating it and stick to it especially once they do what you are hoping for (granted the Q can boat her up sometimes).

I guess I questioned myself when I got new information which was the bet of $200 into a $112 pot. Against alot of regs I play this would only be the nuts or near nuts. Sometimes the next street gives you new information which causes you to change your plan. I would have snap called any pot sized or smaller bet and value bet solidly if checked to maybe raising a small river bet. The instaship made me reconsider that she filled up on the river or had an Ahi flush. I guess i need to be ahead of her range more than 39% to make this a call. I think her range I beat is QJo, QJs (she raises AQ preflop) and T hi or smaller flushes all of which I think are in her preflop range but I'm not sure she ships on the river. I lose to KQo, KQs, (think she may raise these preflop or bet flop) QTs, QTo, Q4s and Ahi FD's. Seems like about 50% in each category.

hmmm seems I should have called like you all are suggesting.

Overbet + quick ship = bluff or premeditated action before the street.

So we're pretty much looking at a-high flush as only hand that you're behind.

If you don't want to lose to a-high flush, then don't play non-nut flush.

I think you're dead here a silly high percentage of the time, and the turn card is SUCH a great card to raise. Straights, low flushes, two pairs all got there or made better hands and we can raise here and get called so wide. No 50yo woman is donk/folding KQ here.

I don't get not raising this specific turn card against this villain.

I wasn't necessarily saying that the plan was good, but clearly you formed it on the turn and then questioned sticking o it. After the way this hand played out, would you change how you play similar hands on the turn in the future?

Thinking through the hand I think I prefer a turn raise since I believe I am getting called by alot of villians range as suggested by abgtr and the only hand i'm behind is the nut flush. I read her as strong and shouldn't have thought she would fold as in other similar situations. It was at the end of a fourteen hour day at the table and I think I was having trouble processing hand ranges and leveled myself into thinking "zomg older lady overbet shoved on me she has to have the nuts".

After running ranges I count 8 flushes I'm behind and 22 im ahead assuming she fods like 72s and a few of the weakest non connected. This leaves me way ahead on the turn of hands that are calling me or shipping on me. Once I add in QTo, QTs, and Q4s on river I'm still at about 53% equity and have to call.

Board: Kh Qh 4h Tc Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.125% 53.13% 00.00% 17 0.00 { Jh8h }
Hand 1: 46.875% 46.88% 00.00% 15 0.00 { AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah3h, Ah2h, QTs, Q4s, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, Th6h, Th5h, Th3h, Th2h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 9h5h, 9h3h, 9h2h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 7h6h, 7h5h, 6h5h, 6h3h, 5h3h, 3h2h, QTo }


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No freaking way this woman has and/or shoves all those flushes. That's a silly range.

Umm...no one insta-ship a boat on the river that's also almost double the size of the pot.

Quit leveling yourself.

yes they do? how can you say never?

I think she can have all of these flushes based on how she has been playing preflop and the fact it was a limped pot. Now whether she shoves them all that is another story and I'm not sure how to decide because I'm not sure she would have had a good understanding that any flush here isnt the nuts.

lets pretend we agree she can really have all of these hands. How do we decide how much of this range an amateur, probably on tilt and without strong understanding of hand values shoves with. which part of this range would you remove?

Come on. Play much live?

yea i feel like i play enough, how can we say she just never has a big hand here?

i've seen old people snap ship nuts even when it was over pot.

i dunno i'm hesitant to say it's never.

I agree with this. I do see this kind of instaship by amateurs. They tend to bet size poorly, either way underbetting the nuts or way overbetting the nuts.

I am exaggerating the "never" part, but it's safe to say that mass majority of times an insta shove is a premeditated move before the street.

Most players just don't have the time to insta-process a card that turns your hand from vulnerable to near-nuts or perceived nuts as it is the case in this hand.

If she plays every street at almost instant speed and it's a norm for her, then perhaps I can reason that she is capable of processing information at such quick speed, but I doubt that to be the case here.

As for you guys' examples that people insta-ship with nuts. I am willing to bet that those cases were nuts before action, not insta-ship upon seeing the nuts, or maybe an instant to you is slightly longer than what I consider to be an instant.

But what the hey, we're arguing reads here, so it's not like there's right or wrong answer.