hero - my description is relatively irrelevant as villain is a very low level thinker and incapable of adjusting her play to me

villain - 50's black female, calling station both pre and post flop, plays very loose and has not gotten to aggressive post flop, she has a pretty bad tell that she almost never bluffs and when she has a good hand she just grabs chips from her stack and doesn't count it out. has a poor concept of pot size. poor concept of even basic parts of the game, sometimes not even realizing why she is beat(2pair vs better 2 pair or thinking she won AJvsAT on a AA225 board)

Table - table has been playing loose, $15 raises get little respect and a lot of the players are very deep

$550 eff.

delt to hero 77

limp, utg+1 raises to $15 (1500 stack), hero calls $15, 2 callers, villain in SB calls, limper re-raises all in $63, utg+1 folds, LP limper folds out of turn, hero calls, fold, villain calls

I made this call because after LP folds out of turn and the other LP has essentially already folded and these limp jam's are generally small PP from my experience, also I would like to get into a big pot vs Villain in position

Pot $230
flop 6 7 8
villain checks, hero bets $115, villain calls

I realize this bet should be bigger but I forgot to add in the people who c/f the $15

pot $460
turn: 6 7 8 T
villain bets $90 (without counting it out or announcing), hero calls

I dont think I need to explain this call but I a large part of her range here on a 9 however I'm getting implied odds to make my FH

pot $640
river: 6 7 8 T A
villain bets $110, Hero?

so to call here I basically have to have the best had once every 8 times, I don't know if villain is ever making these as blocker bets with 2p or a smaller set, very much doubt she would do this with a FD.

as always thanks for your input

Arrgh! Just typed a long response that I accidentally deleted

I would call. I think the 9 paired her kicker and she just can't release her hand. Maybe she doesn't even recognize the straight possibility. Also, you don't want other players to think you'll fold to small river bets in large pots. Not exactly getting proper odds but I would call.
If she has a 5 or 10, so be it

Sorry OP had a typo turn was posted 9 should be T

as is ill FYP as i dont think it changes ur opinion

^^^^ ooops!! my bad!!

Would villain call the flop with AT? Is the villain bad enough to show up with JT here? Or JJ/QQ hands? Could they have T8 or 86? Villain isn't making a blocking bet, but could be betting two pair for value. Would they bet one pair for value here? Is there any real chance villain is bluffing here?

If the answer is no to those questions, I think I might be able to force myself to fold despite the pot odds. Your set blocks most of the two pair combinations they might have, and if they have a set also it is probably bigger then yours. Still, those pot odds are very tempting. Villain obviously has a 9 most of the time, and your loosing more then winning, but you might be beating a two pair or a bluff hand enough to make it worth while.

Can you get any read on the guy who moved all in pre? Sometimes you can easily read if they think they have any chance of winning the hand or not. If they still think they have a chance of winning, you need to reduce your calling chance since you might be playing for just the side pot.

I think the difference between a 9 and T here is big. If a 9 hits it is much easier for villain to have a two pair hand, making the call pretty easy against a villain this bad. A T makes the straight more likely, which is bad for you.

yea it is hard to say, this is an earlier hand to the best of my recollection

aggro MP raises to 15 in CO 1 caller villain calls from BB, flop A65 check, call, call, turn J bringing in spade draw, villain grabs and a handful and bets it, call fold, river K bringing in spades, Villain bets another slightly larger handful, call villain has 66

yuck... this is just a horrible and really untypical spot.

I wouldn't fault either folding or calling. I'm sorry, I couldn't be more helpful but I genuinely think this is a close call either way.

No.

And no.

50s black woman having set over set and preflop jammer having a 9 are so rare and unlikely that OP would be unwise to invest much effort into considering these two improbable scenarios.

Does soul Mumma have a '9' more often than 7 out of 8.5 times? Thats all you need to focus on.

I suspect its a crying call and expect to be wrong most of the time - but prehaps we'll have the best hand just often enough for a call to be profitable in the long run.

I think this is probably true, there really isn't too much use analyzing this river because it is just so uncommon and if we make the wrong decision here it really isnt wrong by much. with that being said I think this should be a call on this close of a hand we have to remember the benefit that if we call and we are right our implied odds for the hands later in the session gets better, and when it is this close I think that makes the difference.

are there any comments on the play earlier in the hand?

Pre is fine.

Flop bet IMO should be bigger as you pointed out already. 150 for me.

I'd also be interested to see if anyone would shove here. We flopped exactly what we have been playing for. We have a draw heavy board and as much as we want to extract from Villain, there is a lot of money in that pot and we are ahead right now almost always so why not charge maximum value on the flop to the station if she calls, and worst case we still pick up a real nice pot. I don't know if this is optimal but would see an argument for it.

Anyway as played that turn card sucks and when she bets in line with your read and how she bet her chips you have to think she has it now. Plus why is she now donking all of a sudden. They tell you when they have it. If you stay with that read on the river you would have to fold. So essentially, don't call the turn then call the river when you don't fill up. Go with your read. Understand the math reasons for calling but to me it's lighting 110 on fire. Either way I don't blame you for doing either as someone else mentioned

Really hard to say without having my own read on villian. Does she vary her bets depending on hand strength? Alot of times when horrible villians bet small into big pots I feel like they are just begging us to call. Without any really specific stone cold read I am calling bc we are getting 7 to 1 and she could be overvaluing two pair etc.

I have seen her very her bets but it seems to be more relying on her perception of the pot size not her hand strength, in her mind she is just going to value town and probably doesn't really realize how big the pot is. One other thing I noticed that I dont know how to perceive is when she was betting the handfuls of chips when she had bottom set she really slammed her chips on the table, however when she bet the 90 and 110 she put the chips down much softer.

I dont mind the idea of shoving vs a calling station with a poor idea of the pot size, although this is a person who does not usually play 1/2 and a $490 bet in 1/2 is bound to set off some alarm bells there are definitely a lot of turns we don't want to see but a bet of $150 perfectly sets up a jam of $340 into $530

I probably bet 170 into 230 on the flop. I want all the money to go in on the flop.