Villain (BB, covers): Regular at this casino. He plays fairly straight forward (tight passivish pre, FoF post) but is unable to make folds when he is beat sometimes, values the absolute strength of hands over the relative strength of hands and doesnt have great tilt control. He is probally a small loser longterm

Hero (CO, $600): Villain probally views me as fairly tight but villain has seen me make many moves when I sense weakness.

Wild table with deep stacks and money flying.

Hero is dealt AJ
3 limps, Hero raises to $17, BU calls, SB calls, BB calls, all limpers call

Flop is T72 (pot=$122)
checks, Villain leads for $45, folds to Hero, Hero calls, 2 folds
I think Villain often just has a T here. He occasionally has a set/T7 here but i think he usually check/raises these hands.
Turn is a 2 ($212)
Villain bets $80, Hero ???

Raise to $160.

They'll be $530 in the pot on the river and you can then bet $200-$250/fold if he shoves with a full house.

The bet sizing makes no sense - only approx. 1/3rd pot on the flop and turn? - but villain donk leading into the entire table does seem fairly strong, so we have to assume he has a hand.

The turn is such a massive scare card - board pairs and the flush comes in - which makes me think that if villain actually had a set and had now boated up I don't think he'd lead out again.

Unless you think villain would normally fast-play sets & boats, this is a raise to $180 or so. If you're lucky villain has a hand like 89s or 9Js of spades, cause he's probably never folding.

Raise to $240, this board isn't super coordinated and with the villain you described he isn't flatting 102 or 72 in the BB, it's obviously possible that he can have 77 or 1010 here and have you crushed but it's also possible that he can have A2, various smaller flushes or simply still going insane with top two or something, the bet screams please don't call imo.

(I didn't grunch this one for some reason) but methinks so far the responses are out-to-lunch. Straight forward fit/fold Villain led flop into a world of 6 (that's SIX) opponents and we're expecting him to show up with a mediocre hand here? Also don't understand any response that thinks we're not committed if we raise here (we're thinking of bet/folding the river with about 2/3 of a PSB left???).

Maybe I'm just too MUBSy, but I kinda hate life here. I passively call and then hope villain underbets pot again on the river so I can simply showdown.

GcluelessNLnoobG

(haven't read the other responses yet)

Haha, fun hand. This is a really tough spot. Stacks are really deep so this is a dangerous one. Your raise preflop was a bit too big with AJs for my taste, but to each his own. :-)

I think he could have one of these hands on the flop:

Flush draw - $45 as somewhat of a blocking bet since the pot is so big
Overpair
[AKQJ] - 10
TT, 77, 22

Is this guy really going to limp/call 17 with KT-JT, or even AT? Just curious. I could see people doing it with AT but not much worse. Maybe if suited I guess.

On the turn his bet is pretty small for the size of the pot. However, often times at 1/2 I see people think that bets are "big" once they are greater than like $50, so maybe he thinks he is putting a big bet out there? Depends on the player.

You could raise/fold the turn, but I think that chases away a lot of hands that beat you. And if someone has you beat they might just call.

Tough decision. I think I personally would call the turn and see what happens on the river. If he bets again I will probably just call. If he checks I will bet big (maybe 80% pot size) hoping that if he has a smaller flush or overpair he can't fold. And if I get raised there, fold.

I'm not exactly sure what to make of preflop. On the one hand, it didn't thin the field at all, so the raise was actually too small. On the other hand, we probably don't mind playing a little bit of a bloated pot with this type of hand in a multiway field. I'd either (a) raise larger to actually limit the field or (b) perhaps put in a small juicer so long as people aren't aware enough to put me on a weakish hand or perhaps even (c) just overlimp. My guess (although I'm often outvoted on this one) is that our raise size ended up getting the worst possible result (didn't thin the field, and too big to just juice the pot a little and give us lottsa postflop play room).

Preflop sizing looks perfect to me, its either overlimp or make it what you did I think, the smaller raise size doesn't really accomplish anything and is basically limping for a higher amount because people don't fold to small raises, at least you will thin the field making it $17-20 and take the lead in position, in this case everyone called but sometimes that happens.

The annoying but profitable thing about 1/2 especially deep is when 2 people call a raise, everyone else calls for "pot odds" so pots can get very bloated and mw very quickly. As for the sizing preflop, $17 usually gets it 3-4 ways, ofc that wasnt the case here.

GG: I was also quite MUBsy here and elected to just call and reevaluate OTR.

River is a 3(Pot=$372)
Villain checks, Hero ???

Would villain ever check a boat OTR there? So easy to get paid from a spade.

I think it's an easy bet for thin value vs. another spade given description of V as unable to fold when behind.

This is why I like the raising a decent chunk (to 200+) on the turn. You just lost all value from a guy who was pretty confident about his hand on the turn. If he had a lower flush or an overpair he's now very scared of the board.

If villain has TT or 77 or some wierd 2 full house, I am ok with stacking off against him in 1/2. More often than not at these stakes you will be ahead here and better off trying to stack him with your nut flush.

I made a mistake

River is a 3 ($372)

I would raise his weak lead otf to 130, he almost never has a monster. A monster would normally check/raise, or stupidly slowplay and just check/call. Villain almost always has something like JJ, Tx. I'd guess he folds most of the time w/a flop raise.

ott I think we can add some flushes to his range or maybe he picked up a draw to go w/his tp. I'd raise him to 200 hoping he calls then we can bomb otr and expect to get his flushes to call. I like this line over calling and letting him make these small donk bets in case he has a flush and if he picked up a fd ott he will call that turn raise which builds the pot in case he hits and/or we get more value when he'd fold otr w/just Tx anyway.

otr I'd bet 250. I think he's pretty much squarely on Tx and since u played it so passively I think u get looked up alot.

OTF, 45 is a very small bet, i put villain on an A10 type of hand, i doubt he would donk bet into you if he has a flopped a set, his bet on the turn was to try to scare you. I believe villian is folding to a raise OTF. With that turn card, you cannot be comfortable with him betting into you, so i would just flat.

As played on the river with a 372$ pot, since getting checked to you must be confident you have the best hand, so i would value bet around 1/2 the pot. Fold to a shove.

HOC actually typically considers us committed with 2 * PSB left when we make a reasonable bet. On the other hand, a lot on this forum seem to think we're not even committed with less than a PSB and a reasonable bet. I fall in between, and think that with $458 left in a $372 that we can get away with a bet/fold as a check/raise is pretty damn strong here on this board. I probably bet/fold about 1/2 PSB (say $175ish).