Hero been at table for about 2 orbits, reg, won two pots without showdown and viewed and competent. $220 stack

Villain is a semi-reg, has played with Hero before, but doesnt have any solid history. Been pretty tight since Hero has sat down. $350~behind.

Hero is dealt QQ in MP in a straddled pot. 2 limpers to Hero who makes it $16 to go. Folds to V in SB who calls the 16, straddler calls the 16, 3 to the flop and rest fold.

Flop ($54): 943
Checks to hero who cbets for $25, V in the SB calls, straddler folds.

Turn ($114):
6
V checks, Hero bets $45, V gives Hero the staredown, then jams.

Hero???

It sucks that we have put half our stack in and now we have to fold … but we still have to fold. Were drawing to 2 outs vs their set.

Grunch

Despite what others say I think the staredown typically means a lot of strength (and there is the fact villain shoved after you raised PF and bet both the flop and turn). My guess is you're up against a set. The only other hands I can see are overpairs he doesn't want to get drawn out on, and maybe AA or KK that he slowplayed. Would he really shove with a nine? Seems unlikely IMO.

I think a clear leak in your game is your bet sizing is too small on every betting round. Against a straddle and 2 callers I'm making it more than $16.

I'd have to see the staredown for myself.

Another thing is villain checkraised the turn. That shows a lot of strength. Despite the low SPR on the flop I guess I lean towards folding.

The only hand(s) in our opponents range I can really see him having here that we beat are A9s or perhaps even K9s that would check the flop and jam the turn and called PF. The board heavily hits all set-mining hands (33/44/66) and I can see the villain calling the flop with 66 and c/r'ing the turn, but it makes no difference if he got there or he already has it. 1010/JJ (not even considering KK/AA, but it comes up every once in awhile) are extremely unlikely with the limp pre flop and I'd even say 99 is unlikely too given the pre flop play. Set *seems* to be the most obvious answer though. Definitely agree with Steve about the bet-sizing; I would make it at least $25 in your position PF (if not $30).

You've committed $86 of your $220 to the pot here and that leaves you with $134 left behind; Pot is $338 at this point with the shove putting you all in and that makes it 2.5/1, but I don't think you can call here given how the hand has drawn out and how well this board hits many of his potential hands he could have given his range and betting.

Vs at 1/2 do alot of stupid stuff...
Do u think this could ever be 9x or 10/10, JJ getting "scared" bc the turn has made the board wetter or else some turned pair plus combo draw?

Good point. We all have seen a lot of weird stuff at 1/2.

Call.

So far, so good. I'd like a bit heavier on the c-bet: 35 --- 40 would be better as you have a strong hand and a low dry board. If he's pulling to a gutterball, make him pay dearly to see another card. If he has pocket tens or jacks, you get more value.

This is hideous. The board texture didn't change a bit here. ( 7,5 ) got there, but that's it. $45 into a $114 pot just screams weakness. I would be tempted to stuff it on nothing, just based on how this makes you look like a nut scared little rabbit. Given that, and the Hollywooding from the vill, this is a definite call. There are a lot of hands he could have here that want to end this right now. That would include TPTK/GK, over pair jacks or tens, or strong underpairs like sevens or eights that don't want to see an A, K, or possibly Q to hit your likely Big and Little Slicks. Let's also not forget he could have a hand like two overs, and is trying to run off a pair of nines. Hands like ( A, K -- T ) and other suited Broadways are good semi-bluffing hands here, especially after that weenie bet tells him he's probably got ESSSS-loads of fold equity.. If he flopped a set or tripped his pocket sixes, oh well. Time to reload.

Bet sizing is what it's all about. Either bet ~75+ on the turn, or click it back. A weak lead like that is just asking to get robbed.

Bet size bigger and this hand plays itself out. All streets o'clock pre is to small imo.

if you put a bigger bet on the turn lets say to like 75 and you get raised i think you can get away from your hand. Still I don't think your any good here when he jams and your read on him is that hes tight. Most tight players arnt jamming there without a big hand .

Raise pre flop to say 20 because of straddle. Pot now 66. Bet 45 on flop, 1 caller. Pot 156. You got 155 left which is psb left. Shove. Hand plays itself out.

Fully agree on a bigger flop bet sizing for value. But OTT is a fold to me as we dont beat much. This one screams a set. People in 1/2 dont bluff or semibluff that much. Calling here I think is a leak.

Grunch

Straddle pot and limpers meand raise bigger than 16. I'd consider coming in for 20-25 here.
OTF, you bet less than half pot. This looks like a tiny c bet.
OTT, you again bet less than half pot. Also looks weak.
I think that given how you've played this, V could be getting frisky with a hand like A9 or even with a pair and a straight draw type hand.
As played, you've got 160 or so behind and could consider making a hero fold which, without reads, is probably the better play but I think you're ahead a lot here.

as played, there's about 60 in the pot pre flop. 110 post flop, then 360 and you have to call 160.
If you make it 25 preflop, there's about 85 pre flop. Bet 65 flop, one caller, that creates 210 pot, and you have 130 behind. Shove turn.
You can play with the numbers a bit but I think that given that this is a straddled pot, which reduces your stack to about 55bb, you have to play this bigger.

If you ran into a set that's a bummer. As played, maybe you can fold his turn check raise, even getting two to one, but I would have played this bigger. If you do go bigger pre flop and flop and he check raises flop, you can fold there pretty easily.

he could have tens or jacks i think A9 just calls most villians at 1/2 are not trying to push you out due to your weak sizing youd need evidence of such behavior until then this is standard llsnl balooga theorem and hes got every set, some two pairs, and likely its possible KK/AA too in his range so i dont think 1010/JJ being in there too is enough to call.

i think you accidentally saved some money with the weak sizing

Maybe. Not realizing the equity of a big overpair is also a leak. Do you always drop big pairs when you run into a bit of resistance? Why not just fold pocket queens then and not take any chances with them? Why not just slam it in pre for the blinds? Every flop can make sets, and you can't be running scared of the nuts all the time. You're gonna get stacked somethimes: that's the nature of the game, and the only way to avoid getting stacked is to not play.

I already said what I'd do if I saw that kind of action on the flop and turn. If I had any sort of semi-bluff hand, I'd jam it every day and twice on Sundays. There's too much fold equity here to not try to take advantage of it. Even if you get called, you can still bink another spade on the river.

The only thing that would make me rethink that turn jam would be a known sticky, stationy player or an absolute yutz who had no idea about bet sizing and would bet like that even if he had the Brazils.

When I see your extremely small bets I assume you're thinking that the Villain is not willing to put much money into the pot with a worse hand. If so, fold.

ugh ... kind of spewy thinking, i think you need a known aggro, ambitious player or an absolute maniac to MAKE the call, its far from being scared of the nuts lol, its llsnl turn chk shove... its the definition of balooga theorem imho, bottom of his range becomes KK and this is how you recipricate your play by easily dodging bullets your opponents would never dodge....

There are enough pps smaller than QQ in villains range its a call. And we have already put 2/5 of our stack. KK, AA would have raised and 33, 44 would have folded pre. Only hand we r scared are 99 and 66. Feels like tt, jj, 99 or 66. There are more combos of tt, jj than 99 or 33. So its a call.
I would have bet flop little bit more though. 35-40.

I dont think you can assume 44.33 folds preflop, he might even show up with 69suited.64suited and i think its more likely villain raises 1010.JJ on flop and are heavily discounted, llsnl villians are too scared of getting turned with such holdings after flopping gin (overpair to the board) and we bet so small on flop I cant see him flatting those hands, which weighs this more heavily toward sets

add to that the fact this llsnl villian just check raised shoved on your face on the turn, and its basically always 2p at the bottom of his range (or a degenerately played KK) without hard evidence of aggro spewiness from V

Bet bigger Pre
Bet bigger on the flop...maybe 25 Pre and 60 on the flop
As played, call

My reasoning is based on
Villain voluntarily put 15 more pre
We only have ~130 left after putting in ~85

This comes down to will villian check shove A9 on the turn, answer is virtually always no without evidence, always assume straightforwardness until proven guilty or you will hang yourself and you wont dodge easy bullets like neo, fold

Not really since I play against a line-up of regs and have their play pegged. "Beluga Theorem" is a good default against unknowns, but that doesn't apply when you have a line on their play, and they haven't adjusted, and so far, they haven't (discounting the more astute fish who decide that 3/6 limit game with a larcenous rake is a better deal when they see Kyuubimon on the waiting list. I don't play it since the rake makes it unplayable.).

It would be spewy at a different venue with a different line-up where you have to play it more carefully while getting a line on their play.

Tight villain? Check raising all in? Fold.

There will be easier spots than this to make money and live i'm happy to give up marginal EV for the massively +EV spots which crop up.

Hand could play differently had you bet sized properly though.

Betting more pre is super important in order to deny V (or other potential callers who cover you) the correct price for setmining here. V has to call 15 , you play 220, there is another caller. He has to play OOP the whole hand but still he might have talked himself into calling with his low pp.

Since the flop is so dry, I would not bet more - it's a way ahead or way behind situation. Anyone checking the flop?

Stare down shove on turn does not make much sense though, if he hit his set, why would he want you to be scared? If he just called turn, you would probably check call a reasonable river bet, right?

Without more info on V, I would still fold to the turn shove but I am a nit.

... is this serious? what are you talking about bro, what does your line up and your venue have to do with this hand? that baffles me

read the OP , no history with villian
so you admit its spewy as per your last sentence lol, alright cool