Table Dynamics

1/2 NL in a NH card room. Table is full of mainly tight, passive players. Rarely any pre flop raises, let alone 3Bs. H has been at the table for about 2 hours. Has about 550 with 400 of it being his initial BI with an extra 100 added on after the first hour or so. H is the only one opening pre, sometimes with marginal hands, but haven't gotten out of line post flop, and have been able to win a ton of small to small/medium pots.

V is one of the room 'regs'. White older dude, prob late 50s early 60s. Drinks sometimes, always comments on the 'hot' waitresses, girls who may walk in. This dude is here every time I am here, and prob puts in 50+ hours a week, and can sometimes be seen playing at 1/3 which a lot of 1/2 regs in my room stay away from. I have played with him a few times, he isn't super aggressive, or an OMC, just someone who plays a tight range, and will not go broke unless its a cooler situation. He button straddles, and will open raise or 3 bet with a solid range. I usually avoid him, because there are much easier looser players in my pool.

V2 - tight, fit-or-fold, older white guy. Not too relevant in the hand

Hands of note in the past two hours with V

#1 He 3B an open of 6 lol to 18 and won a smallish pot with pocket 10s. Line might have went c-bet, x, x. Or delayed c-bet, x on the river.
#2 He 3B an open of 10 to 25 and x it down with AKo and complained that he never wins with the most overrated hand in poker
#3 He called a 15 dollar open by me when he was defending his button straddle (all folds till it got to me, he was the only left to act) with 73dd and open folded when I c-bet. Said he was doing it for the high hand promo (not a total nit, willing to give a little action)

I know no one was 3b in the table dynamics description, and my HH's go against that. But it literally was the only 2 times there was a 3b, and the sizes were on the smaller side.

OTTH -

H has about 550
V1 has about 350
V2 has about 300

H in MP opens to 10 with Q10dd, V1 3b in LP to 25, V2 cold calls in the BB

Flop (75ish)

QcQs10h

H flops the nuts. V2 x, H x, V1 cbets to 25, V2 folds, and H elects to make the call. If V2 would have called, I did plan on xr. Thoughts?

Turn (125ish)
QcQs10hAh

H x, thinking this must have been a good card for V and he would prob continue betting, but V just x.

River (125ish)
QcQs10hAh5c

H bets 75, and V thinks for like 5 seconds and jams it all in my mouth....

1. Is this a good example of just folding pre, possibly 2x?
2. H beats 1010, KJ, and QJ, KQ but loses to AQ, and AA. Too many combos that I beat that makes this a bad fold?
3. We all know that rivers are rarely bluffed at these stakes, especially in the form of a river raise, so again fold?
4. Is anyone really that good at 1/2 to fold the 3rd nuts? If this was like a 3rd flush I could get away from it.

Not folding a FH as played. If he has AA, "nice hand, sir."

I wouldn’t fold pre in either spot. You played the hand very slowly and beat TT and maybe KJ on river … only lose to 6 combos and AA not likely to raise so small as a 3bet preflop IMO. Straight is not so consistent with turn check but whatever… still not folding river when V has such a narrow value range and we beat at least 1 combo of value (TT).

Preflop is fine

Flop I probably pull the trigger early with the check-raise. Sure the AK type hands will just fold but you're not targetting them.

Turn I am very tempted by a lead here. Purists would hate it and it's unbalanced,.I just see Ax checking back here a lot and you'll leave quite a bit of work to do on the river.

As played, river lead is fine but I wonder about the relative merits of a check-raise here. Calling off for sure, loads of hands can bluff this plus you might well see someone thinking that KJ is strong enough to jam here, let alone TT.

There's 3 combos of AA. 3 combos of AQ. I dont see him taking this line with KJ very often and if he did he'd bet the turn. What bluff or value hands can you count other than a single combo of TT that we beat? I can't find many. Have to discount even KQ on this board texture (a competent player is not going broke here with KQ) and not sure he's 3-betting KJ frequently and if he is he's certainly not checking back the turn when his hand hits.

The low sized 3-bet (especially if he usually sizes properly) is not inconsistent with AA. He has position. He does not have to worry about an overcard plus the high hand promo check back on the turn all point towards AA.

I think b/f this river to a shove is fine.

Is there rake in this game?

Either way, that is gross. Does villain really value own himself with KJs here? Does he even 3bet that? Does he value own himself with KQ? Does he even have KQo?

Have you ever seen him bluff? How much time have you played with this guy? Not only do I doubt he is bluffing here, I doubt he even finds the bluffs here. A lot of them will not be in his range. ATs is supposed to be turned into a bluff, so is QJs, some KQs, and a small percentage of the time even KK.

Based on your description I kind of think folding is the answer. It is 225 to call and pot will be 725 after you call, so you need 31% equity. You're probably never supposed to fold from an MDF perspective.

Every once in a while I see an old man bluff A high boards with KK. But it is just rare and you say the guy is an OMC. So I think it is ok to make an exploitatable fold here.

I figure the most realistic hands in his range are AA, AQ, TT. I think we can include AQ since I think 3 betting TT which he has done before, makes it likely have AQ in their 3 bet range. The other stuff feels very unlikely.

If you give those all equal weights you have just about enough to call, but rewheighting then could push it negative ev, but add in some 1/2 spaz factor, you have enough to call.

Hero has a T and there is a T out there. So there is only 1 combo of TT left. 3 combos of AA, 3 combos of AQ. Beating 1/7 combos is not enough. And I think it is ambitious to assume villain if value owning himself with TT. As he said in his original post, villain is an OMC. Do people as described find bluffs like KK, AT, JQ? Occasionally, but far more often the answer is no.

Thanks. I missed on the combo of tens.

Preflop is fine.

No need to raise flop. You have the deck crippled.


River is just a trivial call off. Sometimes we run into a cooler here....but it's just not enough times to exert much brain power unless we are playing and uber OMC that always has AA or AQ here.

I misread first post, thought it said he was an OMC. Still I think thos is totally dependent on whether or not you have seen him do big river bluffs.

damn do damn don't spot for sure ..

c/r on Flop is super strong, especially against the crew you describe .. but how strong does a flat look like against a 'history' Player?

I'm leading this Turn for 50-60, maybe 45. IMO pretty much all Ax are calling and KK- are folding, so why offer a free card? Granted you want all lower pp to improve, but I just wonder where our value comes from OOP. We also want to get closer SPR for River when our V is on the strong side. You get zero value on River if V misses or doesn't feel stubborn with pp, so get it now on the Turn or just take it down. If we were IP I'd feel a bit different since V can bluff River OOP and not just take a Showdown if you offer bluff opportunity on River.

Where are you more likely to fold, if ever? Restated .. where do you feel he's stronger? Getting shoved into after a Turn Donk bet or River lead AP? When we are this strong it probably doesn't matter, but I think a 'history' V will check back AA here IP to allow for a River bluff by H or to let H 'catch up'. Is V really checking Turn and yet still shoving River with TT? IMO doubtful unless they feel H will bet the Ax hands on River.

A lot of back and forth here, but at Showdown the chips are in the middle without a much stronger OMC/Nit tag. The only debate IMO is whether we make more chips in the long run by betting Turn, betting River or checking River .. and in this game checking the River would be a distant 3rd since these 'value' hands just aren't coming around often enough and V will take the Showdown if offered. I guess I'll put in a 4th option of betting Turn small and checking River (and that might be my best option in my games).

Unfortunately this is AQ/AA much more often than TT or even a sprinkled KK desperation bluff.

225 to win 500 .. 2.22 to 1 on a call


.. Last night we saw Dwan tank with the 3rd nuts getting 1.6 to 1 on the River. He says it was call or shove, but I really think he was considering how often KK/66 were realistic holdings for Polk. He turned beet red after the fact when talking about his process and IMO that's because fold was in the equation. GL

Well, at the table and viscerally I don't think I'm ever actually folding this, but it's worth thinking through this more carefully.

The general approach to big river bets (without a good read to the contrary obv) is to assume they're drastically underbluffed and fold bluff catchers, but consider calling if we have more than a bluff catcher. So which is it?

If we actually think the only value hands he can have here are AA and AQ, we should fold. But given the propensity of 1-2 players to do all sorts of goofy slowplays he can at least have TT here. As you said KJs is possible and I've seen almost this exact flop get slowplayed with QJs. (Another QTs is impossible and it doesn't seem he's 3! you as wide as QTo.) It's a fairly unlikely parlay that he both 3-bets 55 preflop and stabs on a paired board, but it could happen. Likewise it doesn't seem he's 3! Q5hh.

Some of these are quite plausible (TT -- oops, only one card combo though); others are longshots. But adding them together, you get enough value that now the 3% or 5% random bluffing also counts. So call.

But we probably all have a tendency to think "I waited all week to flop a full house and I'm never folding it," and that can get you into trouble in other spots.

When your first thought in considering a huge 1-2 river call is "loads of hands can bluff this," you might be trying to think too many levels ahead of 1-2 opponents. I agree with the rest of the post (there is value that you beat) and agree with the call, but it's important to catch yourself giving opps too much credit for bluffing frequency.


Sorry I know my reaction comes off as nitpicky. You can do the same with errors in reasoning in my posts. I actually appreciate getting nitpicked when the explanation is clear enough to help me correct leaks. I'm bad at message board etiquette though.

I agree with your reasoning. Honestly this is pretty marginal and may well tip to a fold for reasons you lay out well.

Calling or folding in this particular spot isn't a big leak; the EVs are close. My persistent leak here would be reasoning out that a fold is somewhat reasonable, maybe even deciding it's correct, but struggling to put the cards in the muck because "OMG how can you fold the third nut FH on this board?" Folding big hands is tough.

Where does it say in the OP that V is an OMC? I see the opposite actually it says he is not an OMC.

Just some quick clarifications regarding V.

This guy is not an OMC. OMC's do not button straddle, OMC's do not defend a BS with 73suited.

This gentleman would also limp from time to time, and would even limp in UTG, and call a raise after limping UTG.

This gentleman I would describe as someone who is snug, tight, a decent hand/card reader, someone who is not a drooler. This is also someone who would not get OLL, and prob would not 'bluff' besides a typical C-bet in position.

If you’re 100% sure the guy never spazzes or bluffs then fold.

If you think there’s a 5-10% chance the guy does something unpredictable like bluffing or spazzing with a medium strength hand, then call.

Personally I’m always calling and it’s not close for me because see enough weird stuff in my games.

If you’re fortunate enough to play in a game where you can perfectly predict your opponents hole cards in tight range spots like this with high accuracy then fold I guess.

I don’t have much else to say so I’ll wait for results now.

Results:

I obviously called and as I did I said 'I doubt I'm good but I can't fold this'. He of course showed the bad news and turned over AA.


About 30 minutes later we chatted about the hand and he said he would have most likely have folded on the flop if I had xr. He said he knew I had to have had a Q when I x/c his bet on the flop.


About an hour after the hand he did end up donating about 200 of it back to V2 from the hh when the runout brought 4 spades, and the action went V2 x, V1 bets 50 into like 40, and V2 xr ai for 200, and V1 called down with king of spades and lost to V2's very very obvious As. In my head after seeing how that hand played out, I realized that this dude has some 'spazz' in him and that my call was not terrible and just a standard cooler.

Well, yes, but there's a big difference between aggression for an overbet of 50 followed by an optimistic call; and a shove raise for 250 more. Many players are LAGgy on the smaller bets earlier in the hand but few are LAGgy on the big river bluffs.

Tough beat but you played it reasonably on all streets. XR the flop specifically to protect against a two outer isn't sensible, of course, and if he would fold AA here then you probably played the flop correctly. Bummer.

Agree with you here. I may call this in the moment, but if you look back on every street, his hand plays exactly like AA.

Not at all, it's a good point and well made