1/2 Home Game

It's my first time playing at this home game, I've never met or played with anyone there.

The Villain in question is one of the people running the home game. Early 30s white guy, seems competent, haven't seen him get out of line in my first hour of play. Playing ABC, doing some straddles, but not being overly aggressive.

Hero's image should be winning TAG. I've been opening most of the hands I have entered, but I haven't entered many. Also been c-betting when heads up in most hands. I bought in for $140 and am up to $300.

HJ Hero ($300)
Button Villain ($150)

Villain straddles to $4 on the button.

Hero is dealt 88

Folds to Hero who raises to $15, Villain calls, blinds fold

Flop ($30) 5 2 2
Hero bets $25, Villain raises to $65, Hero ???

My initial reaction to this raise was I shouldn't be giving Villain credit for having a better overpair because he was a Button straddle and is going to be calling my preflop raise wide.

The game has been fairly crazy, players raising with draws and pairs a fair amount, although I haven't seen this particular player do that or showdown any light raises, which made me weary.

The other big factor was that if I chose to just call this raise, the pot will be significantly bigger than his stack on the turn. So call just seems really bad in this situation as I shouldn't be planning on folding the turn anyway.

Fold seems so weak, but shoving feels like I'm overplaying my hand..

One factor to consider is that we have now put in 1/3 of our stack.

You really can't call the raise oop - you would get to the turn with a pot of 160 and now > 50% of your stack in the middle. So there's really no purpose in calling.

Your options are to shove or fold.

I don't love it, but I'd shove.

I'm inclined to shove as villain can have 66, 77, clubs. 43 is also possible. Doesn't sound like spaz like 64, 63, A3, A4, 5x are likely, but some is always possible. 2x and 55 are certainly possible, as well, but those hands are harder to have.

Giving a villain a range of 34, any 2, any clubs, and any pair 55s or higher, we have 30% equity.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

210,870 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 225

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
8h8d	30.00%	62,793	949
34, 55+, cc, 2x	70.00%	147,128	949

There is $120 in the pot when hero is making his decision on the turn. Villain has $70 behind. Assuming Villain's range is correct and he is always calling our shove, we are risking $110 to win $190 with 30% equity. We are only getting 1.7 to 1 on our money, so we would need 37% equity to call? Or am I mathing wrong? Still new to calculating ranges and combining that with pot odds.

The highest pairs would have three bet pre so remove from range

Sent from my LG-D855 using 2+2 Forums

Removed QQ, KK, AA

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

193,050 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 225

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
8h8d	32.00%	61,299	949
34, 55-JJ, cc, 2x	68.00%	130,802	949

How much does Villain straddling on the button affect our decision here? At the time, it was something I was thinking about a lot, but in reality does it really matter so much?

This is obviously a close spot looking at the equity and given ranges. If Villain is ever doing this with a 5, it is an easy shove. If he is only doing it with OESD, flush draws, and stronger hands, it is probably a fold.

It is definitely a fold if he is not someone who raises with draws and only raises with stronger made hands.

Results: I thought Villain's range would be weaker here due to the fact that he straddled. I didn't think he would be raising with a 2, so I thought a flush draw would be the largest part of his range. I shoved, he called and showed TT. We ran it twice and I spiked an 8 on the second river.

You're mathing is perfect.. 1.7:1 is correct.

1. Do you really think V can really have every possible 2?

That includes hands like 92o... 72o... 82s... that's A LOT of 2's. I'll answer the question - no, he will not have every possible 2. And that'll make a huge difference in your equity calculations. Every unpaired 2x hand has 16 different combos. So just consider 4 2x hands: 62, 72, 92, J2... that's 64 possible combos. Obviously blocked on this board, but you see the problem - giving him all the 2's makes your range inaccurately 2-heavy.

2. What about TT+?

I'd eliminate JJ+. Maybe even TT and 99 too, but for pocket pairs, sure, you could consider 22,55-99 in his range.

3. Every club?

Does he really have every club hand? Like 94cc? I doubt that. Again, there are a lot of clubs - 55 in fact (11 choose 2). So your range is too flush-heavy.

4. 43.

Dunno if you can give him all copies. Maybe just use 43s for a 3 random other suited copies and 1 flopped club combo draw.

I think once you work on a reasonable range, it'll be close to break-even if not a little bit +EV. But I think we also have to allow for the possibility of other unexpected hands.. gut shots, overs, air he folds, whatever.

Good point, it is pretty hard for him to have a 2 in his hand if he is calling my raise pre. I'm going to lunch, but I'll work on constructing a more accurate range when I get back.

I think V can easily have any 2 if he always defends his straddle. Has he been defending or is he folding some of them? The raise was less than 4x the straddle, which many straddlers will call with ATC.

I mostly agree, but I'd add a stop-and-go shove as a third option. We can call here with the intention of donk-shoving all turn cards. It's a little FPSey, but I think that might be the best option against his range here. Reasons:

-His range includes overpairs, flush draws, random 2s, random 5s, maybe some 43s's.

-If we jam here, I expect him to call with overpairs, flush draws, and 43s. I expect him to correctly fold the 5s. So we make a lot of money against 6s and 7s, and a little money against flushes and straights. We lose money against 9s, 10s, and 2s.

-If we stop-and-go, we still get called by his flushes and straights if they hit. But if they miss, then he faces a closer decision on the turn, might decide to give up his equity with one card to go.

-If we stop-and-go, and the turn brings a broadway card (particularly an offsuit ace), then villain might abandon his 9s or 10s to our shove.

Mathematically our villain shouldn't fold the turn with hands that beat us. But call-flop,-donk-turn creates an opportunity for him to make an error in a big pot. If we're committed to getting all the monies in anyway, and we think fold equity is very low on the flop, I think it's worth a delayed all-in to see if we add some on the turn.

I hadn't been playing long enough to say for sure, but I don't think he was the type of player to defend with ATC.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

62,370 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 225

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
8h8d	43.55%	26,688	947
34$s, 55-JJ, 6c7c+, 6c8c+, 6c9c+, 23$s, A2$s	56.45%	34,735	947

Here is a more condensed range for him. 34s, connected/one gap/two gap clubs, 23s, and A2s. Against this range it is a clear call, but still pretty close to even EV.

Is this a realistic range? Any other hands that should be added?

I like a shove in this spot. I do agree that V can be defending straddle with ATC and therefore you have to consider a wide range of 2's. That being said, I also feel like V can be bluffing or semi-bluffing. A shove gives him an opportunity to actually fold hands that are beating us, such as a weak 2 or TT-99. Shoving also charges the draws and there are some. I can see him doing this with 2 overcard clubs as well as just a 5. Shove and make him have it.

I think your new range looks a lot better.

I would honestly remove some of the bigger overpairs (results be damned).

You can add some more suited 2's.

I would assume there could be a combo or two of air / weak gut shots. Is there ever some 5x? Maybe.

Like I said way above, I just think that with all the tweaking you do, you'll find it to be at least break even and probably a little +EV.

Not a great spot, but I like the shove.

Thanks for discussing