Here's two bluff hands I made today, thoughts? Is my FE high enough that these river bluffs are +EV?

Hand 1

I raise preflop against a limper to $10. 3 callers including villain in the BB. I have AQ. Flop comes J62. Checks around. Turn is 7, checks around. River is 3, BB bets $10, one fold and I raise to $35. The button is still active behind me.

Hand 2.

I raise in the SB to $20 with KQ against a loose passive limper. It's a $5 straddled pot. Straddle and the limper calls. Flop comes J65. I notice the SPR is only ~1 against the straddle and don't think my c-bet success rate is high so I check. Checks around, turn is 2, checks around. River is 7. I bet $20 into the $60 pot. The goal is to get 33-44 and ace high to lay down.

I am not an expert in estimating fold equity, but hand 1 looks like you are lighting money on fire.

Hand 2 looks good. I think you get a 45, 85 to fold as well

Really? I thought 1 was better than 2...Don't both villains lay down anything except the A or K here? Villains weak river lead seems like the 8 or 9 type hand doesn't it?

I guess people play a really weak tight passive type of game where I play.... So usually its a K or A of diamonds that leads out most of the time there. Maybe people value bet thin where you play? I doubt it though.

No. IMO, live you are getting called by nearly any diamond, possibly mid-top pairs and unbelievably a single Ace. There is not enough money in the pot, and $30 just doesn't seem like that much actual money for a donkey (they don't think about bet/pot relationship)

Yeah, villain is getting 2:1 on his call, I'd probably call with J or higher based on your line, donks would call with an even larger range, possibly down to 8.

Edit: I feel like I should explain myself a bit more so I don't look like an idiot. Most A, K and possibly Q are going to stick some kind of a semi-bluff/value bet on the turn, after there are 3 diamons otb, for the fe, if nothing else. That bluff looks super weak because of the sizing. If you bet huge, like an overbet, to $55/60, I would probably believe that you turned the nuts and wanted to see if I could catch up with my J or Q, but as is I really don't like that first bluff.

Are you playing in a vacuum. Nobody can put magic numbers on these things. You know you need to be thinking about villain types, ranges, your image etc.

Seriously? That's your bluff line?

Raise pre, check, check, raise 2/3 pot.

Raise pre, check, check, bet 1/3 pot.

How do you manage to keep your BR?

hand 1 i think you will have a low success rate at making people fold flushes. i think realistically you get folds from flushes maybe 8-high and below. heads-up this might work. with this many players it's burning $ imo

hand 2 i just c-bet against 2 opponents. if straddle hit and calls his stack then so be it.

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when it comes to stabbing at uncontested pots OTR, one thing to remember is 1/2 plays so passive, even bad players are often just checking down their 2nd pair no kicker type hands. but with no more cards to come they're never gonna fold to a river bet unless they're pretty nitty. so i'm only ever stabbing at pots with air OTR when the hand is 1 or 2 opponents.

Hand 1 I think is really read dependent. Villain just donked $10 into a $40 pot; what does that mean for him? The nuts, please pay off my small bet? Or, I've got a very weak hand that might be best, please don't raise me cuz I'll probably fold? Against typical regulars, methinks you fold out everything but the A and perhaps the K a fairly high percentage of the time, so I don't think I hate, but it is read dependent (and obviously it helps if we have a I-only-bet-the-nuts-on-the-river image). We make quite a bit of money if this works > 50% of the time, and I *think* it probably does, no?

I honestly think checking through multiple streets and raising/stabbing rivers is rarely going to work. Earlier streets are better imo, but by the river no one is going to fold anything, it's 1/2.

my bluff line is: pot/pot/shove.

I'm broke

Get a better image.

Also I have only seen such line used by very bad players overplaying their bottom two pairs, or always a bluff.

Not too many hands can be bet that way, too hard to balance.

I need to practice merging my range for a triple pot barrel.

F**k triple pot barrels in low limit live. They rarely work. The only question is whether we should mix up a river check with the nuts rather than always betting them. If we are caught slow playing the river with our nuts (that's what she said), our opponent might assume that's how we always play the nuts and give us action the next time we three barrel thinking we are now bluffing. I think there are enough situations where it might be +ev to check the river nuts, and, oh I forgot, no one is paying attention in low limit anyway!!!

Question is not whether you should check river with nuts, but rather you should bet more often on river with nothing.

Lol. Hand 1 you hate money, hand 2 you hate money, where do you play Yoda? I love money and would love to take it off your hands. Both hands are just a c-bet and win too. God this is so ridiculous you say to get 200bbs in that other thread and you want to take these lines?

sseriously, no one can stay as uneducated as you in this environment, therefore im calling it:

Troll.

Yoda is supposed to be super wise but is actually just a tiny green troll.

Hand 1: Should just be a simple c-bet and take it down on the flop. I've seen players call with literally any in that spot on the river

Hand 2: A little more reasonable because you are OOP and that really might be the best way to win the pot. But I would have probably led out on the turn instead of the river.

edit: Just read the responses guess there is some hate. The interesting part about this is how often in a 1/2 game is there nobody claiming a pot on the river when everyone whiffs. I know that most of the money will be made in valuetown, but the river could be a good spot to think about bluffing since no one is worried about your "story" to make it a reasonable bluff, they just know they whiffed.

Agreed. In certain situations, it makes sense to river bluff. Situation A, however is not one of them.

yeah, but it doesnt matter what your story is a lot of the time.

it does matter when their story is 'i have a flush' and you start trying to bluff them off it.

I'm not sure why everyone thinks our "story" sucks on hand 1, cuz it actually makes perfect sense for anyone paying attention. We raised with a big A , whiffed the flopped so we checked four handed (not a horrible play, IMO, but whatever), have given up any hope of bluffing on the turn and let it check thru, and then hit our four card bingo card in the river and we're raising our nuts. Against typical regulars who we play with on a day in - day out basis, I expect the K to be folded face up a decent amount of the time here, let alone anything less. Against unknown droolers who aren't paying attention, our success rate obviously won't be that great. So, read dependent, IMO.

IamNear - what's your problem? There's lottsa different contributers on here at lottsa different levels of play, including beginners (I'm one myself). I've only read like 3 of your 32 posts and each one of them seems to have an overly harsh tone.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Hand one you gotta bet the turn to set up a larger bet otr. I think checking twice then repping the nuts is hard to do here.

Hand 2 it all depends on whose in the pot. Your laying pretty good odds for any mid pair to call.

In both hands I'd like to see a bet ott and a follow through on the end. Its a tough sell to check it down then rep big imo.

That said only you know whos in the pot and what there willing to call w/ or how light etc.