Situation: My local casino poker room consists of a lot of older players, many of whom are loose passive. 95% of players in this room do not 3! pre w/o AA/KK.

Villain: 40ish WG, winning player. He wins because he plays better post-flop than most of the players and is very comfortable folding to aggression even with fairly big hands (and he's usually right to with this player pool). His pre-flop strategy is super exploitable. He raises ~35% of hands but gets away with it because few players play back at him. I've seen him raise T7o UTG+1, 84s in MP, etc. Clearly he is very wide.

I've probably played 30 - 40 hours with him and our last session was very telling. So far I've picked my spots on deciding to 3! him light as I've been learning his game. For example, last session he raised UTG + 1 to $10, got 3 callers (who I knew had weak ranges), I made it $65 w/ ATo in SB, all folds. An hour later, he raises UTG + 1 to $10, folds to me in SB w/ KJs, and I 3! to $35 for value. He thinks for about 10 seconds and folds face up AQo (wow!)

So that got me thinking. If he is raising 35% of hands but then folding all but the top 3%, I can obviously print money in the short-run by auto 3! him (I don't mean literally every time, but just ramping it up drastically). But should I? Right now, his suspicion odometer on me is medium to low and so this allows me to make a profitable steal every 90 minutes or so and take down some good dead money. Based on some table talk he does, he seems to think my 3! range is something like TT+, AK, AQs. But if I ramp up my light 3!, this may cause him to play better by opening less and defending my 3! more.

Should I continue to be fairly selective with my 3! and enjoy the easy steals I get, or should I come out of the shadows and engage in a regwar where he'll know I'm loosening up and see who can best adjust? I do think I am a better player.

Joey it’s hard to make a comparative static analysis because the dead money/fish between you and the Villain will also adjust their play if you start 3b more against the Villain. Part of what makes your playbacks EV+ is their limping. They will tighten up preflop and let you and the Villain slug it out.

I would recommend playing back at a frequency that won’t alter the limp/fish dynamic very much.

You can sheer a sheep many times but only skin him once.

Yeah kick up the 3 bets but keep yourself below 100% so a) your 3-bet frequency doesn't get so over the top that everyone starts to notice, b) you block some of his continue range, and c) you don't get caught showing down T5o. If he sees you show down complete garbage after a 3-bet even once the game is over.

Don't try to completely steamroll the table with aggression because even the nittiest rock with cataracts will eventually tilt and look you up.

lol wut

Even though the math says 100% 3-bet is profitable given villains open/defend range I'm saying not to go all the way.

Assuming he doesn't adjust, 100% 3-bet is profitable.

Don't give the guy "you read like a book" any reason to adjust.

"Stealing" $40 $50 an hour - even if it's "only" once an hour - makes me jealous, there's nobody in my games who can regularly and consistently add to my stack like that. (Usually they bust out first.)

The big thing is to not overdue it. Once an hour is probably the highest frequency I would do it. A decent player is going to adjust if you do it more and start 4 betting you.

Pay special attention to his raise %. If all of a sudden he's not raising 3-4 times an orbit, he's trying to trap you.

+1. Keep doing it, but learn when villain is close to his breaking point and either dont 3 bet him light at that point in time- or make sure you are at the top of your range with a premium when you go after him.

Its an amazing spot to be in, when your image is such that you can 3 bet with KJ and get him to pretty much instafold AQ faceup so you take it down pre rakefree. Dont ruin it, by overdoing it.