Welcome back!

Ugh, I typed out this long reply and then it got wiped out.

Short version is this: if we raise the flop, we are mostly trying to get called by draws, right? So there are 2 problems:

1) We can get called by multiple draws. Every time a draw hits on the turn, it slashes the amount of "value" we actually get from raising the flop.

2) After a flop raise, we have to play the turn. If a scare card comes--and it's fairly likely (I can think of 20 scare cards that weaken the relative strength of our hand)--we have to decide whether to shove the turn, potentially paying off a draw that just hit, or check back, potentially giving a free card to a draw that didn't hit yet. Either way, it slashes the amount of "value" we actually get from raising the flop.

Again, as I said in my last post: I'm not saying raising the flop is bad. But I do think that people who are in favor of raising here are overestimating the actual amount of value that they are getting from a flop raise in this hand. It's probably positive (in fact it's almost certainly positive), but it's not as much as you think. And because it's not as much as you think, I think there's a case to be made for waiting for a safe turn to try to collect value. The amount of value we pass up on by not raising the flop isn't so much that it rules this out.

There are so few "safe" turns. I want to charge draws. I don't mind taking it down now. I wouldn't even consider flatting flop on this board With this many players.

With so many players, there are no safe turns except 7 or 5. For example, I really don't want Ace 7 getting there.

Nothing that happens ott can change what happens otf. Raising in this hand otf is the same reason people raise AQ from the SB preflop after a raise and some calls. The AQ is airballing the flop a lot and then you're just oop with no hand, but the preflop value is a winning play over time. If your opponents are calling with plenty of hands worse than AQ pre, it's a good 3-bet. Here, a draw calling is good for us. With one card to come, ott, that's when pricing out Vs needs to be involved in the sizing, otf a lot can happen the rest of the hand, I don't price people out otf, just go for max. value. One important thing to note, when we turn a boat, which 8-10% of the time isn't so minimal we shouldn't discuss it, we need to check behind ott and let Vs see their draws for free going to the river, for our line to be really profitable we need to give Vs an RIO situation and letting them draw for free when they're drawing dead does that.



And for guys still talking pf, I would hate the limp if it were a raise to $10, i.e., pre and we called that. 1BB is ideal though for limping, and I would also be limp/f'ing if the raise out of the blinds were more than 1 more BB. So OP got exactly what he wanted when looking to limp.

thanks!
oh yeah forgot about this, idk what % is but 8-10 sounds about right. we have those outs baby

at first you were saying youd raise flop but barely. now your starting to favor the check bak a little more here?
sory, you may not notice but you good players dont really give concrete answers, more of a food for thought answers

few things;

just because villain 1 slowplayed once, does not mean he is going to slow play every time, especailly in a 7+way pot on an incredibly wet board texture.

It just comes down to ranges. I think its probable you have the best hand now, but arent doing super great. As it is, you raise flop to around $60 and fold to a shove. Calling is pretty much out of the question because like you said, there are a ton of bad turn cards/you can get value now.

Important thing to note: be careful w the illusion of having "great odds to call". It's not really about how great your odds are preflop, its more about how big is the stack to pot ratio going to be post flop and what kind of bet sizing are villains using.

Example: if an UTG villain raises to $10 UTG and gets 6 callers and you're on the button w JTs, you should fold(or raise, but probably fold).

Why?

well think about the pot size post flop. assume the blinds fold(even worse, they call). Now the pot is $70 and your stack is(we'll assume 100bb) $190. What happens when you start facing $50-60 bets on the flop 7 way? You have no fold equity/opportunities to steal the pot/push your equity, and thus your forced into a situation where you just cant call/play your hand profitably post flop because of the low SPR.

Now, this absolutely changes when the trend at your table is to bet top set $15 into $70, in which case, flatting IP is nuts because they are making such horrible bet sizing mistakes post flop, giving you incredible implied odds. This is just something you need to be aware of at the table and being sure you know which villains are playing like this.

Hope that helps!

Vernon, man. I almost always agree with everything you say but I can't agree with this.

In regards to your points:

1.) By just calling, we're allowing so many more players a chance to potentially improve and draw out for a much cheaper price. Even if our value is slashed when they make they're hand on the turn when we raise, isn't the value from raising the flop still considerably more than when we let this go through on the flop with a much smaller pot, giving so many more players the chance to improve? I mean overcalling 4 players.. I don't like it. I feel like we're slashing our hand's immediate value by just calling.

2.) Well that's a part of poker. I'm fine with having to make a tough decision if we have to, but the turn can brick as well. Deal with the turn when it gets here, maximize what you can control on the flop right now.

Btw, just read your COTM sticky on the front page. Good stuff!

I thought I was clear about raising the flop, and I never said a small raise.

This is about checking the turn IF we turn a boat. There are times you have a nutted hand and just bet/bet/bet but there are times you have a nutted hand and need to let a worse hand see a free card because you'll stack him if he hits it. I remember one hand I had AQ and flopped AAQ and I bet and 4 guys folded. There was only 1 A left in the deck, only 2 Qs left in the deck, what was I targeting for value? I was so nutted I should have checked and let small-mid pp's turn a boat and stacked them. So if OP turns a 7 here, check it back, and let whatever draw is out there river his gin card and give away his whole stack otr.

seems you were very clear i misread. no1 said anything about a small raise!! i dont think

Grunch:

Preflop: totally fine.

Flop: raise for sure. Tons of worse hands will call from all over the table. One thing to think about is what kind of board V1 slow played his set on. He might slow play with no draws but this board has tons of them. I'd be surprised if he slow played here so I'd expect to see more made hands. He's really the only one I'd be hesitant to get all in against.

Response regarding CMV hate:

I think his point is that there's a really good chance you're only getting draw value for one street due to not knowing what you're fading and also because there are better hands out there that could stack you now. This is a spot where you can choose the street you give for free and can really mitigate your risk. I would still probably raise flop here, but his point is valid. You're not really losing TONS of value because they're calling that bet on both the flop and turn but probably not both.

Well, it's probably nigh-impossible to calculate but in such a big multi-way pot, I would say some V's are drawing dead and/or drawing very thin (i.e. people with lower end of the straight draw, smaller flush draws, smaller two-pair, etc etc etc). Why are they drawing so thin? Because other people have their outs.
I intended this actually as an argument to raise, rather than call, because V's are over-estimating their chance of hitting so you will be able to get more money OTF than OTT (when it comes in a lot less than expected).

I'm saying raise OTF now to throw your money in good.
If we just flat and the turn is a "brick" (i.e. non-suited overcard), we may be throwing in (all) our money bad thinking we're good, whilst not getting much value from other weaker hands such as draws and single pair. I think that's why people are saying there's really no safe turn besides the Full-house completing cards.

Those advocating calling OTF, do you think there's a possibility the other 2 people in SB and BB could raise with a weaker hand than us, raise an incorrect value, and let all villains draw? Also, calling would almost certainly let SB and BB come in, making us 7-way to the turn, but raising (may) make it <5-way instead? Which still isn't great, but better. I just feel that when I have a semi-vulnerable hand I want to have control of pot rather than see how the wind blows.

Getting the one street of draw value would be better to get OTF than OTT, because I think villains will still be thinking "there's still 2 cards to come! my chance of making a flush is roughly a third, I call!" rather than "only 1 card left, 4 cards already out... hmm do I feel lucky, punk?"

I have not read the entire thread as it was pretty long but I did read the first page. However, before I read others' opinons I developed my own and here were my thoughts.

Pre-flop: I do see guys doing this but personally, I VERY RARELY limp in a pot. If I am in I am usually raising. I am not saying EVER but the times I don't are very particular V's at table. In this hand, I would prefer a raise for a few reasons: ONE- we take the lead and control of the pot. TWO: we probably do not have the best hand at the table but we are certainly in the best position and probably the best player so there is value in getting more $$$ in in this position. THREE: we can KO some of the other limpers depending on our image. (Maybe raise to $12-$15 here). FOUR: most will not be able to put you on the hand you have if you raise here. FIVE: for me, I can make better reads based on how people respond to me rather than allow them to take the lead and figuring out where they stand. The downside of raising to $15 is that the SPR is going to be funky and low now and others have the opportunity to set mine profitably due to inflated pot. I think the benefits outweight this and thus I would opt for a raise pre-flop.

Flop: Based on your V info and stack sizes I am deciding right here to GII vs. V1 and V2. V1 is really the only one I'd consider having a possible hand that beats us. Everyone else is looking strongly like they are on a flush draw, straigh draw or maybe doing something funky with the same hand (57) or some combo draw of Ax with flush draw. And betting $15 into $28 is a touch on the weak side as is just calling. We limped into this pot and hit one of the hands we wanted to hit. If you are getting involved in this pot and just limping pre-flop, inviting a bunch of others in, and hit 2 pair, you are pretty much alweays going to be in a spot where a draw is also on the board (another reason I like raising pre - to narrow field). So all that said...I have to think I am good most of the time here. I feel like a raise is critical. I think at least $85 total is a good start. Some f the combo draws have a good shot at just shoving here and I am probably committed if they do. Against this table, with the way the action is, I just don't see a set turning up here too often and 68 seems in the same ballpark. V1 is the only one who may have one of these and luckily he has shortest stack. Raise $85-$100.

shove pre they aint got ****

Yes, we probably are. But the reason I'm suggesting it's OK to do this (and remember, I also think a flop raise is fine, I'm just suggesting it's not automatic) is that we can make up that value by either pushing a bigger equity edge on blank turns, or making a big laydown on the turn and being able to keep our losses small. I think the combination of both of these benefits of calling makes it close between calling and raising.

Obviously I agree that a benefit of raising is the immediate value. I'm arguing that the immediate value of raising is not so big that it's clear that those other two considerations are outweighed by it. (Maybe they are, but it's not clear to me--which means either I'm missing something about this spot, or it is close.)

Here are a few reasons why I think that:

1) V1 and V2, once we raise, will either fold to our raise or they will basically have committed themselves if they have a draw (this is because of their stack size). So basically, our flop raise forces them to make a mistake. However, once they make that mistake, they basically can't make another mistake on the turn, because they'll probably be getting straight pot odds to see the river at that point. So when we raise now, we're basically saying, "If V1 or V2 has a draw, I can't win this pot unless they fold the flop, or I fade two cards, not just one." If a draw is seeing both cards, then the "value" of our flop raise is less than we thought it was, because we can't induce another mistake on the turn. (This doesn't apply against V3 and V4 obviously, because they are deeper. We could induce mistakes from them on the flop and the turn. But if V1 or V2 doesn't go away we still have to fade 2 cards for the main pot, which cuts our value.)

So if the goal is value against V1 and V2, we can wait for a blank turn because we can't get actual value on both the flop and turn.

2) If we raise and we get called, especially in multiple spots, then on the turn, we are more likely to make a mistake than our opponents are! We might check behind a scare card that didn't actually hit anyone, allowing our opponents 2 cards for the price of one flop call. That actually negates the value of the flop raise in a lot of spots because it allows Villains to realize their full equity. Obviously on a blank turn this won't happen, but there are a LOT of non-blank turns on a board like this, all of which complete obvious draws and we're going to be tempted to check behind on for fear that someone just passed us.

So if we raise now, we're building a bigger pot where we are more likely to make a mistake (either shoving into a completed draw or giving a free card to a draw that didn't hit) on a later street. That seems bad to me on a strategic level. If I'm going to make a mistake in a hand, I want to make mistakes when the pot is small, not build a big pot and THEN make a costly mistake. That's one aspect of why I think calling is OK: it does lose immediate value, but it means we make our mistake in a smaller pot, and can play the turn better than we could if we raised the flop.

Also, spike mentioned it briefly but I haven't yet. There is a chance that someone is slowplaying a hand better than ours! So let me ask you this: if you think top 2 is strong enough to raise for value here, what hands would you slowplay? None at all? Would you raise or fold everything? What's the cutoff for what hands are good enough to raise?

With this many opponents, the only truly safe cards are non-club 2s and probably Ts, Js, and Qs. Maybe Ks, but people love suited Ks, even K7.

I would not slow play any made hand on this flop with so many opponents.

OK so you're never calling? In that case, what's the cutoff between folding and raising and why?

I'm calling with a draw; probably raise with the right draw. Never just calling with set or straight. I might raise 45 -- that's the weakest hand I would have here.

What about if you had A7s or 88? Fold?

BB covers me and SB has ~$200.

-Buckethead22

Yes, good point. I've noticed that a lot, not all of course, of the villians at my local gambling hall are much more concerned with the absolute bet sizing. Anything ~$100 is a *serious* bet, and one they don't fool around against; it don't matter if it's a $100 bet into a pot of $500 or a $100 bet into a pot of $100. anything less than $50 they are happy to call/overcall against because it's not a *real* bet (even if it's a $50 bet into a pot of $10).

When making my raise this concept was one of the things I had in mind.

Why is that?

Great discussion and thanks to all the posters who chimed in! I feel better that my poker reasoning in this hand wasn't *too* wacky even if others wouldn't play it the way I did.

At this table limping and valuebetting a bingo hand was the way to go, IMO, because V3 was super-loose and sticky and was paying off big bets. I think he folded preflop maybe once or twice an orbit (seriously!) even against raises. Indeed, he later shipped ~250 BB's to me on a turned str8 when he limped in 9-5 offsuit.

In either case, thanks all for your contributions. Here's the spoiler.



Thanks,
Buckethead22

I wouldn't have these hands OTB in a limped pot!