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1/2 deep can we ever fold 1/2 deep can we ever fold

05-26-2013 , 11:17 PM
Hero (900) @ table for 8 hrs. Villain is a very old man, appears to be in his 90's. has been on quite the heater calling a ton of raises PF (750). previously he check shoved AQ on a JK9 board and rivered his flush against a young girl holding JJ. Ive seen him limp reraise QQ preflop and correctly value bet middle pair in a 200 pot. His play is unlike the typical tight passive stereotype of old men. he is quite creative and crafty with his play

Hero OTB dealt 89, Limps to villain in CO who makes it 15 ( he does this roughly 3x per orbit on avg), I make it 40. He calls

FLOP (80) 10JQ

Villain looks at me, coughs, and checks table hard, like he actually slammed it
Hero checks behind to appear weak, hoping villain will fire turn

Turn (80) 6

Villain checks again, this time more normally
Hero bets 65, villain goes all in and tells me "i got this one sonny" very arrogantly


Now clearly any club gives me the winner if i don't already have it. But my question is, how often does he not have AK here? hes jamming 650 over my 65 dollar bet. He is capable of having K9 here even given the PF dynamics. If i didn't have a club draw, this would really lean towards a sigh fold. I just feel like theres a good chance im ahead right now and if he so happens to have a straight i still have outs. Im weighting villains range towards QQ JJ 1010 AK AA AQ K9, J10 Q10. what do u we do here?? thoughts on all streets appreciated
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05-27-2013 , 12:12 AM
Fold. I can't believe he makes that play with anything other than AK. He's banking on you having a set and not being able to fold.
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05-27-2013 , 12:12 AM
Why play suited connectors if you're not going to bomb away when you hit the straight (even the bottom end) or flush? Getting those hands are the reason we play suited connectors

As played...I would just call his $15 bet pre, no need to bloat the pot yet and if he re-raises your $40 do you really want to continue with a most likely dominated hand? See a flop for a reasonable price of $15.

OTF, why check here? There are several hands he can call you with that you are ahead of and why let him have a free card at a possible flush draw?

OTT, do you think Villain would slow play AK or K9 OTF and OTT when there are flush draws out there (unless he has ) Seems unlikely given Villain seems to be aggressive. You've mentioned he has previously check-jammed on a flush draw and you feel you are well ahead of most of his range here with your straight.

I just can't see how you don't call his jam here, but maybe I'm way off base in overvaluing a made suited connector hand. Interesting hand to discuss I hope there is more input

Last edited by 702guy; 05-27-2013 at 12:13 AM. Reason: forgot something
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05-27-2013 , 01:02 AM
dont make it 40 pre, as played cbet flop, shove turn.

also folding here would be so terrible.
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05-27-2013 , 05:12 AM
This is never ever a fold to me, as we beat to much of his perceived stack off range here. I would also flat here preflop, but mixing it up with a 3 bet in position i think its fine from time to time. Exept the check on the flop i belive you play the hand great and you have a well disguised monster wich is underrepped by your flop check.

We beat all kinds of two pairs and sets here, plus combo draws, flush draws and so on. In my view folding here would be pretty terrible. If he really has AK here its a pretty sick cooler, and i dont feel to bad about it afterwards.
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05-27-2013 , 05:19 AM
you 3bet him with SCs, (why not i guess), but why o why did you check the flop? you realize there are probably 20 bad cards for your hand?
as played, snap it off obv. never fold.
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05-27-2013 , 05:20 AM
another point, i could pretty easily avoid going broke in this spot in a single raised pot, but impossible avoid it in a 3bet pot.
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05-27-2013 , 07:56 AM
Yeah I am calling pre for sure.

That's a really bad flop check. Bet 100% of the time.

As played anything but a snap call is a slow roll.
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05-27-2013 , 08:10 AM
this IS a BEAUtiful hand!
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05-27-2013 , 09:45 AM
i dont see the reasoning for 3betting pre. bet flop. as played, id probably just sigh fold and wait for a better spot. how can he not have AK here?

eager to see how this one turned out. results?
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05-27-2013 , 10:00 AM
Villian had 9h8h. Only joking that would be sick.
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05-27-2013 , 10:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wewa925@yahoo.com
i dont see the reasoning for 3betting pre. bet flop. as played, id probably just sigh fold and wait for a better spot. how can he not have AK here?

eager to see how this one turned out. results?
lol i saw the hand, it was pretty sick, villain had K4 and got there. you´d made a bad laydown, sir, never underestimate the spazz out factor...
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05-27-2013 , 10:11 AM
To everyone saying call.......what hands does V do this with that we beat?
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05-27-2013 , 10:23 AM
The only reason you checked on the flop was to induce a bluff. There is a good chance it worked here as Villian may have a set or a flush draw and puts you on nothing. Don't really see how you could check the flop here. So many cards could hurt you. The good and the bad of it is Villian would not expect it either.
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05-27-2013 , 10:38 AM
Pf - Love the 3bet to mix it up

OTF - Bet pretty much 100% of the time. Very likely he has connected in some way and you definitely want to charge him if he has, say, a K in his hand or 2 hearts. 2 pair and sets are also never folding, most likely check-raising and you can just get it in right there. Even if your opponent didnt have a draw such as a K or hearts so many cards on the turn can kill the action and have you scared you're behind. I think your thought process of 'check to look weak hoping villain bets turn' works much much better on dry boards

OTT - I agree with everyone else here. Must call. How likely is he to check-raise THAT big with AK or K9? Also, you mentioned he did that move with flush draw + gutter previously. Also, as you mentioned yourself, you have checked the flop which disguises the strength of your hand and you did it to look weak and thats probably exactly what he thinks, making it even more likely he does not have AK or K9 AND you have the re-draw.
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05-27-2013 , 10:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by g00t4life
To everyone saying call.......what hands does V do this with that we beat?
In my opinion most likely a combo draw such as Ah9h or a pretty strangely played 2 pair. I say strangely cause id expect 2 pair to just lead big on turn but c/r is definite possibility.

Bottom line for me is, would he really c/r THAT big with AK or K9? Player dependant but most of the time its a no. And in this hand he has the club draw to bail him out if he's wrong, but i would call even with no re-draw.
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05-27-2013 , 11:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by g00t4life
To everyone saying call.......what hands does V do this with that we beat?

After the flop check in particular from Hero, i belive V is possibly shipping this turn with all his sets, probably all his 2 pair combos and also his combodraws of flushdraw+gutshot for example. That is a large amount of hands that we beat with our straight. Folding here is just terrible at these stakes in my opinion, giving our V all too much credit.


I personally have seen several decent players ships 200-300 BB reraise allin with 2 pairs on wet boards like this countless times, sets is 100 percent stacking off. We just own V stack off range here, thats the reason for me that we just cant fold.
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05-27-2013 , 11:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sauhund
lol i saw the hand, it was pretty sick, villain had K4 and got there. you´d made a bad laydown, sir, never underestimate the spazz out factor...
that wasn't the hand at all. your either mistaken or just attempting to ruin the thread.
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05-27-2013 , 11:35 AM
My reasoning for 3betting preflop was the fact that

A) he was on my right and opening a super wide range of hands

B) he was never getting 3b by anyone at the table

C) if he had AA KK or even QQ he was coming back over the top and I could easily get away

D) as experience has taught me, suited connectors are great hands to 3b as opposed to like a KQ A10 because theyre so disguised. I was looking to play a big pot w villain without him having any idea of where he was at.
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05-27-2013 , 11:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buttermilk
that wasn't the hand at all. your either mistaken or just attempting to ruin the thread.
i just wanted to show wewa....@yahoo.com not to be results oriented. not ruining this thread, wasn´t my intention.
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05-27-2013 , 11:50 AM
Why are you 3b pf and then checking the flop? Bet flop, bet turn, gii.
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05-27-2013 , 12:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Omar Comin
Why are you 3b pf and then checking the flop? Bet flop, bet turn, gii.
I should've included more HH with villain. Ive seen him flat raises pf and fire turns when original raiser didn't cbet. I just thought I could make it look like I missed. about 80% time when I flop a monster I bet hard. I just wanted to make it look like I wasn't too confident. Regardless of his holdings or mine, his 650 over shove of my 65 reps a lot of confidence on his part. I don't see him putting this much pressure on me if I bet flop and turn
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05-27-2013 , 12:40 PM
results?
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05-27-2013 , 01:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buttermilk
I should've included more HH with villain. Ive seen him flat raises pf and fire turns when original raiser didn't cbet. I just thought I could make it look like I missed. about 80% time when I flop a monster I bet hard. I just wanted to make it look like I wasn't too confident. Regardless of his holdings or mine, his 650 over shove of my 65 reps a lot of confidence on his part. I don't see him putting this much pressure on me if I bet flop and turn
His shove is either a lot of confidence or alot of non-confidence. If he thinks he has the nuts, why not bet smaller and entice you in? I love it when I find a guy that will over bet the pot like this. You lured him in with your weak check. He now thinks you don't have a good enough hand to call his bet. Time to collect on what was a good move against an over aggressive opponent.
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05-27-2013 , 02:04 PM
I think I'd rather just flat preflop. We're deep so we're fine with keeping our implied odds high, plus we're also cool with having this go multiway.

When we 3bet preflop and flop the 3rd nuts on a board which could smash a lot of second best hands plus draws against an aggro opponent, plus SPR is a reasonable 9, I'm kinda guessing we're committed. If that's the case, I'm probably just pot/pot/shoving and never consider slowing down unless the board gets ugly (and there are actually a bunch of cards that turn this board ugly). Although, I'll totally admit I rarely play this deep and I'm sure I post better than I play.

I'm pretty sure the weak check back on the flop, plus the fact we've even picked out 9 outs against non-dominating flush draw hands that happen to be beating us, make this an insta-call on the turn.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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