New 1/2 table, looks juicy

Stacks: Hero $300, V (silent, old guy) $300, UTG1 (drunk lady) $100

UTG $4 straddle, 3 calls, Hero raises to $24 with AKhh in SB, V calls in BB, UTG1 limper calls

Flop ($84): JT7r (no heart)
Hero cbets $40, V raises to $80, UTG1 all-in for $76, Hero ??

I don't think A and K are outs here so we have only 4 outs most of the time. Bad board to cbet I know, but whatever.

Am I calculating the odds correctly below?

4 outs x 2 = only 8% to hit turn.

$40 to win $280 in the middle = 1/7th or 14% needed, hence fold.

If we factor in implied odds to win Vs remaining $200, its $40 to win $480 = 1/12th or 8% needed, hence call.

Did I do it right?

Check fold

Math wise it's your call amount/total pot (incl ur call) so you have the right price to call immediately against sets/JT if no more bets are made. However your equity requirement is of course misleading bc you are not going to realize it 100% of the time. If you assume zero FE on a shove, you'll need nearly 3x as much equity to shove against that same range which you obv don't have.

So as a one steeet peel its bad and as a shove it's bad. You can try and figure out the implied odds of 4 outing a turn, but you're not going to get to the number you need.

Ya, math is good.

I actually advocate a call. Percentage of the time (very small) an A or K will be good. Other times you will get a free river card.

Not a great spot. But calling is plus EV, therefore showing profit over folding.

Although folding is low variance route.


Your cbet is really bad into 2 players on this board. Check and evaluate. Lots of times Villains will make sizing mistakes or even slow play and give a free cards or good price to call.

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40 to win 280 (pot) + 200 (behind) + 40 (my call) = 40/520 = 1/13 or 7.6%.





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Yeah, but are we ever checking any value hands here? Seems like a super unbalanced spot.

At the table, this is an auto-fold for me.

How are we playing AA/KK/QQ here?

Here's how I do the math at the table based on the assumption that the A and K are no good:

1. 4 outs to the nuts, so that hits turn about 8% of the time (actually a little more). So I'm 10:1 to improve on the turn.
2. I need to put 40 in there, and there's 280 in the pot. 40*10 is $400, so at the very least I need to get on average of $120 in each time I bink turn.
3. If my A or K is no good, that means that V has at least 2 pair, which means if I improve on turn he is at least 10% to bink the river. What that means is that 10% of the time you only win up to 90% of the pot, and 10% of the time he wins your stack. Worse if he has a set. Think that pushes this to a fold if you're sure your A and K are no good.

I always have lag image. Which is nice for getting value, but murders my fold equity. So my view on fold equity is a bit tainted. Maybe you have a lot more fold equity than me.

But I would not be bluffing this flop with any hand besides KQ.

Your SB raising range should be fairly tight so we are going to flop well a huge percentage of time. AK, AQ is about the only hands that doesn't smoke this flop. And both hands have good equity.

A lot of hands are going to be 1 pair hands, that I would rather not play for stacks with. (Turn, River are very likely to make this board extremely scary).

So I would be looking to play for 2 streets of value. But main goal is to get to showdown. Would be checking some of my 1 pair hands.

Betting AK, AQ here would not show a profit for me. For you, it very well could. (Most villains are just playing there cards) But I am never folding out any draw or any 10's. So I would rather check eval.

By check calling we still get realize the majority of our equity, and don't have to play for stacks.

Probably break my range up like this, as my raising range for SB is very tight.

Checking JJ,AA. AK, AQ(Possibly check/raise AA).

Betting: QQ,KK as they block straight draws and villains more weighted to 1 pair hands. AJs, KQo, obviously betting 10's.



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How did you translate 8% to 10:1? Google says 8% is 8/100 = 1/12.5 = 1:12.5?

8% would be 11.5:1. Easy to see with bigger numbers. 33.3% is 1/3, and we all know that's 2:1.

Note, the 8% is an approximation and it's actually a little bigger. In reality, if your A and K are not outs, then V can't have a Q (there's no hand that V has with a Q that is ahead of AK where one of A or K isn't an out). That means that there are 45 cards left in the deck, 4 of them are your outs, so you are 1/11.25, or just about 10:1.

More importantly, at the table I'm just trying to get close enough. Obviously our assumptions are sometimes wrong (maybe sometimes we have A or K as an out, or running A and K, etc.) More importantly, when we hit we some time get sucked out on at the river, or end up chopping on an A or K river, etc. So, I don't worry too much about getting the odds exactly right, and 10:1 makes the math easy. Ignoring the fact that V sometimes rivers a boat is a much bigger computational error than 10:1 v. 11:1.

fold immediately