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1/2 - Can I Make this Move +EV OOP? 1/2 - Can I Make this Move +EV OOP?

03-10-2014 , 12:16 PM
$1/$2 Local casino, early evening Sunday.

V1 ($350) late 20s black guy, headphones. Quiet in every way. Played very few hands in 2 hours, patient. I've seen him open to $15 and C/F missed flop vs 2 passive stations, flashing AKs. I haven't seen him make any aggressive moves.

Hero (covers) mid 40s white guy. We are the 2 tightest players at the table by a mile, but I've been more aggressive. I haven't been caught without a strong hand. I've taken down some pots preflop with bigger raises from LP than typical at this table, and have been seen getting 3 streets of value with TPTK a couple of times vs terrible players.

Hand in question: Table has gotten very limpy, many unraised pots.

I limp EP A2 in classic gobbledygeek fashion.

Folds to V who makes it $12 in MP. Folds back around to me. Do I give up (standard) or is this a rare spot at 1-2 to get creative?

His raise to $12 is probably A10+, KQ, and maybe some middle pairs.

I seriously doubt this guy wants to play a pot with me. We are fairly deep and this table is super fishy. And I expect he will give me a ton of credit if I play back at him.

My plan for the hand would be:

1) I expect him to cbet the flop almost all the time heads up in position, so I have to C/C and reverse float in most cases.
2) I don't think he is likely to double barrel me with air. If turn checks through, I fire basically all rivers.
3) Maybe I should be planning to bet the turn myself on most board that miss his range, which might look less suspicious?
4) If I check turn and he barrels, I have to decide based on bet sizing and reads if I think he has a strong hand. If he looks strong, I give up (unless I catch an actual hand, of course)
5) If he fires turn, but looks tentative, I will consider check raising, especially on scary turn cards.


This is just such a rare spot at 1/2, and outside of my normal TAG game. But I feel like there is an opportunity to build a pot vs this rare type of villain and then take it away, so I'm just trying to think it through.
1/2 - Can I Make this Move +EV OOP? Quote
03-10-2014 , 12:28 PM
Rare opportunity to get in a big hand OOP vs one of the best players at the table?!? Ummmm...yeah, I guess so but it would certainly not be +EV.
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03-10-2014 , 12:52 PM
Although these types of hands are 'good' to play in order to gain experience and reads on these types of opponents I'm not so sure that its +EV in the long run unless V range is so small that you can bet at 80% of the deck to get him to fold. Can you even expect to see KQ here?

I think the largest aspect of this 'move' is what is his image of you? Will he call you down with AK on a non-descript board?

I think you need to bet out on Turn if you have any chance here unless you have huge expectations that he will bet Turn for a c/r opportunity. Again, your image will matter here if he thinks you are just trying to steal with your raise.

I would 100% of the time bet Turn if Flop checks through ...
I would 70% of the time c/f River if it gets there with any betting on the Turn unless I improve to a decent hand.

You can use the board against V in most cases ... except when he is using it for flush or straight himself. Hopefully you have an image where you use 2 through T portion of the deck.

All that being said ... I would never call this V with Arag 'hoping to hit' ... it would be with the sole attempt to steal and probably doing so knowing you have one of his outs!! GL
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03-10-2014 , 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrindPokerAllDay
Rare opportunity to get in a big hand OOP vs one of the best players at the table?!? Ummmm...yeah, I guess so but it would certainly not be +EV.
That is true. And, I agree folding is standard, there is no need to get involved.

But "one of best players at the table" is a very low bar here. There was no evidence that he was particularly good, just very patient, and passive. I didn't think he would want to defend a pot against me without a big hand.
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03-10-2014 , 12:55 PM
Against most Vs we can float this, maybe 50% of the time. It is definitely not +EV, but can in the long run encourage more play against us.

The key is folding the 66%+ of the time we don't flop gin, getting as many chips in the middle when we do. Also multiway would be much preferred to HU.
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03-10-2014 , 01:16 PM
Floating OOP is a horrible idea. Also, nits have a hard time folding hands in general. If you want to play this hand tricky to win a pot vs this villain, the best line here is a limp re-raise which pretty much represents Aces. He should discard most of his hands and perhaps call with his medium pocket pairs. Then you just barrel most flops and based on board texture possibly double barrel. (BTW, the best line to take is still just fold)

Limp calling is just terrible.

BTW, I'm not saying the villain is good. However, if he is as patient as you say he is and has only been seen raising AK then he is better than the vast majority of 1/2 players by a long shot.
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03-10-2014 , 02:16 PM
Lac leamy?
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03-10-2014 , 04:28 PM
You must be bored.

The limp is ok.

Fold to the raise.

Move on.

You've made good points. However, I'm not going to attempt it.
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03-10-2014 , 04:32 PM
L/3bet is way better than l/c

L/c is not +EV
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03-10-2014 , 04:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20
I think the largest aspect of this 'move' is what is his image of you?
This is all that matters in order for your tricky play to work. At 1/2 getting tricky is usually a huge no no. The stack sizes are hardly in your favor and overall level of play doesn't line up.

Limp/raise is the way to go if you must and 75% of the time that is designed to take it down preflop. Any piece that connects with your opponent on the flop he's probably seeing all five cards. Hardly an +EV situation.
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03-10-2014 , 05:42 PM
It's the right hand to use as a l/r bluff occasionally(blocker, wheel and nutflush potential), and the rifht sort of opponent. However, to get him to fold pre you will probably need to go to 40, which is a lot to risk to win 17. Thereafter you have an equity and positional disadvantage.

Really, we need to think about the concept of range, and how it is linked to frequency. At a good online table or at higher stakes live, players are analysing you and they know how often you raise in EP, limp raise or 4bet. The EV value of any given 'move' in these spots is usually negative, but it serves to increase your EV when you do in fact hold a monster.

So, standalone, this is gonna be close, probably -ev. If you think it's essential to widen your EP limpraising range to get more action feom this villain, go ahead and make the play.

If you probably won't play that many hours against him in future, just fold.
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03-10-2014 , 05:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hollywade
You must be bored.

The limp is ok.

Fold to the raise.

Move on.
Fair enough. As played, that's exactly what I did. And I was a little bored.

But for some reason, I couldn't stop thinking about this unimportant hand out of my otherwise straightforwardly-played and super-easy session.

Going for a L/RR is a much better idea, thanks to all who suggested that.
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03-10-2014 , 10:36 PM
Meh. I mean we are limping Axs as a speculative hand we hope to hit multiway and extract big value from one of the fish. When they all fold and we are left heads up with the tightest guy at the table hoping he has AK or AQ (which we have a blocker to) I think it's best to just pitch it.

Even 3b here isn't all that profitable IMO against a tight opening range With almost no dead money.

I like that you are thinking about how to exploit observed tendencies. I just think you can find +EV spots to exploit rather than this one.
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