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1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set 1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set

12-01-2015 , 06:57 PM
Hero just gets AA cracked to V who rivers a gut shot with K2. Hero rebuys for $300. V Israeli tourist dude. Israeli has around $230. V2 MAWG knows the game a little, definitely not a bigger but by no means a grinder. $320. Probably takes the game seriously but not for a living.

EP raise to $10. V2 calls, V1 calls, Hero BTN 88 calls. 4 players to the flop.

Pot $43
Flop K108 rainbow

EP Checks, V2 bets out $50. V1 calls. Hero??


At this point, I think V2 is strong. He could have K10, or 1010. I doubt he has a draw like J9 because I seen him check call with flush draws folding when he didnt get there. V1 I am not worried about at all. He seems pretty fishy which he probably has something like KX.


So shove? Flat? Raise? or by some miracle fold?
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-01-2015 , 07:55 PM
Raise to set up a shove on the turn. Stacks are to shallow to be worried about set over set.
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-01-2015 , 09:24 PM
??? So mubsy, make it 150$ and jam any turn.
even if you want to be mubsy and say he has KT or TT, there's 3 combos of TT and 9 of KT. Even if he only calls pre with KTs it's still a 50/50 chance you're ahead of him. Play for stacks.
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12-01-2015 , 09:30 PM
Call. No need to scare them away in position.

Raise is fine too.

Luxury first world problems compared to the one really severe problem you have in your poker mindset...

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1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-01-2015 , 09:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stupidbanana
??? So mubsy, make it 150$ and jam any turn.
even if you want to be mubsy and say he has KT or TT, there's 3 combos of TT and 9 of KT. Even if he only calls pre with KTs it's still a 50/50 chance you're ahead of him. Play for stacks.
I'm going to nitpick. If villain's range is {KTs, TT} then there are only two combos we are ahead of on a rainbow flop, so we're ahead 40% of the time.

If that's his range then folding is still wrong, though.

OP, Why can't V1 have K8, T8, or even Kx? Also, just because he didn't bet a draw once doesn't mean he never will.
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 05:11 AM
V2 range is not TT KT. He has AK/KQ too maybe even KJs. Once EP checks V2 knows his risk of being up against AK+ is much reduced so he can bet large with top pair+ to isolate fishy V1 and get value.

I don't hate calling but V1 can have a lot of straight draws here, both OESD and gutshots, so if he can put more money in with them now I think we should make him do that. Because a load of his gutshots contain and Ace I think a fish can gii on flop or at the least call a raise.

Vs V2 we might like to shove to make our hand look like a semibluff with QJ, something trying to get a fold and therefore more likely to get a call from his whole range. How would that affect V1?

V1 can have AQ AJ QJ J9 and be happy to gii. If he has KX or TX (particularly AT) be could be bad enough to call a raise but might fold to shove.

However, if we raise and V2 shoves that may well get V1 to fold his weaker pairs and lose us value. But V2 won't shove with his weaker KX and maybe not AK either. He wipp probably fold KQ and worse, call AK and shove KT+ So our raise gets us against a tighter, stronger range but one we're still ahead of.

I'm not totally clear what is best out of call and raise but, keeping it simple, we clearly can get value here and now by raising and V1 can be drawing frequently. Therefore raise to $150, call any shove and shove all turns should do it.
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 05:23 AM
Also +1 to you needing to get a grip on your negative attitude/MUBsy thinking. You have a set, effective stacks are 150bb. If you aren't happy to gii here your fear is crippling your game. I mean what would you do with same action on a Q98 flop? KJ8, T87, Q87, QJ8, 987, 876? Your set of 8s isn't the nuts on any of these and in fact some of them are a lot more dangerous for your hand than the flop in OP. You're still going to have to play them one way or another otherwise what is the point in calling 88 preflop?

You can't just wait for an 88X flop or 8xx. It is poker, you'll lose sometimes with very strong hands but it is still worth playing them for all the more frequent times V has worse and you take his stack.
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 06:15 AM
Raise flop and shove turn. You might lose AK, but you're going broke against bigger sets so no matter how you get in vs KK/TT who cares. You're not losing KT to any turn card, any like I said AK is somewhere around 50-50.
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 07:52 AM
I think I like raising to about 125-130. It builds the pot enough for a turn shove and allows us to get away from our hand if an A or 9 falls. I don't think I can get away if a Q, J or 7 falls. Raising 150+ seems to pot commit us even though we may not be getting proper odds to call when the obvious draw gets there.

Contrary to OP, I think that V2s bet makes a lot of sense for a draw. He's never isolating V1 here when V1 is ip and hasn't acted yet. He could be a K I guess,, but I don't generally find decent villains over betting pot in EP with a fish behind them when they're strong. I doubt it's two pair or a set because he's losing too much value.

+2 to the MUBSy thinking killing OP's game.
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 08:11 AM
A bet AND a call in front of us?!?!? EUREKA!!

Only 150 BB deep?!??

I have on thought on my mind.. How can I get all of the money into this pot?

$125 now.. The rest on the turn..

If I lose to KK or TT, or KT that spikes, or even QJ/J9 then so be it.

I'll take my chances with sets all day long!

Sorry you got crushed by KT sucking out!
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 10:56 AM
What is with people not wanting to raise with flopped sets on wet boards lately?

Freaking raise. $150 and shoving all turns.
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 11:21 AM
Never, ever fold. 100% raise with a bet and caller in front of you. At least one should come along. Shove all turns.
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 12:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND
What is with people not wanting to raise with flopped sets on wet boards lately?

Freaking raise. $150 and shoving all turns.
no-brainer imho
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 02:37 PM
Okay just making sure if anyone could fine a hero fold. V2 had 1010.
I end up shoving, V2 shoves V1 calls

Thanks!
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 03:11 PM
There are places and times where the concern of set-over-set should enter your mind, but generally only when very deep and on very dry boards.

With these stack sizes, board texture, and action, this is not even close to one of those times. Sorry for the cooler.
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 03:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kansaisupra
Okay just making sure if anyone could fine a hero fold. V2 had 1010.
I end up shoving, V2 shoves V1 calls

Thanks!
Ugh.. No shame is getting stacked..

Reload and keep getting it in with sets. Long run you will crush it.
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 04:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kansaisupra
Okay just making sure if anyone could fine a hero fold. V2 had 1010.
I end up shoving, V2 shoves V1 calls

Thanks!
Folding will lose you much more money on the long run.

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12-02-2015 , 06:26 PM
Unavoidable cooler.
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 08:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aftrglw
I think I like raising to about 125-130. It builds the pot enough for a turn shove and allows us to get away from our hand if an A or 9 falls.
Please don't try to "get away" if an A or 9 falls.
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 08:20 PM
gg next hand. If it was T 5 2r and we had 22 and 1k in front Id think differently.

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1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 09:11 PM
I think making it $125ish and shoving all turns is a good option to get value now and price ourselves in OTT if someone makes a straight.

I think calling is a decent option as well. The Isreali probably shoves OTT (unlikely to have a draw based on flop sizing)and we can trap V2.

For me it mostly comes down to what I think V2 has. If he is CC'ing pf with KQo,KJo type stuff then he has more TP hands than straight draws combination wise. Often based on his body language, how quickly he called the turn, we can deduce if he has a draw or a made hand. If I think he is more likely to have a made hand I am definitely just calling to trap him OTT.

If we raise OTF and V2 has TP, it should be a pretty easy muck for him if he is any kind of a hand reader. V1's overbet OTF is strong and a raise from us is always going to be 2pair+. Letting him off the hook when he is basically drawing dead >50% of the time would make me very sad.

Just kinda thinking out loud here really.

Edit: Got the V's mixed up but too lazy to edit, rethink the hand.

Last edited by kookiemonster; 12-02-2015 at 09:16 PM.
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 11:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Homey D. Clown
Please don't try to "get away" if an A or 9 falls.
You're right. It's an automatic raise, shove turn. I miscalculated V's IO earlier and thought we were giving him better odds on his call by committing to a turn shove than we actually are
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12-02-2015 , 11:35 PM
Id like to hear some peoples thoughts on raising vs shoving as my initial thought was shove vs most here.
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12-02-2015 , 11:47 PM
From the description of V1 I think he is good enough to get away from TP, therefore I'm calling OTF, expecting him to bet out OTT and trap V2, then I can shove and get all the money. The board isn't so wet. I think it's worth the risk.
1/2 Caesars Palace: Bottom Set Quote
12-02-2015 , 11:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rmthawk64
Id like to hear some peoples thoughts on raising vs shoving as my initial thought was shove vs most here.
Think it's just that shoving folds out more hands than calling does, and we want to set ourselves up to play for stacks...
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