7-handed 1/2

V is a MAWG who just sat down, no history, $180 stack.. He is sitting to Hero's immediate left

1 UTG limp ($500, young bad-ish player)
Hero ($600) raises $16 in CO with TT
V (BTN) calls
Rest fold

Flop ($37): J 8 and some other low maybe 5 or 4
Hero cbets $25, V thinks for 5 seconds and throws in a green chip

Turn ($87): 7
Hero checks, V checks

River ($87): A
Hero ???

HU we should cbet close to 100% but I'm not sure if this is the right spot.

Is flop bet spew against straight-forward guys with our hand? Is turn a double barrel? Can we bluff the river? I thought V's flop call indicated some high spade flush draw so I don't think I have much fold equity. My bigger concern is the spewy flop cbet.

C bet is good. I´d bet the turn for sure if we had the T. Prob. spewy to bet here. For sure check/fold this river to any reasonable bet.

NH Sir.

I'd check fold river.

I think I'd bet the turn if we had the 10 but since we don't I like the turn check .

C-betting here 100% of the time vs. an unknown.

I'm bet/folding the turn for $60 here and bluff catching check/calling the river on non-spades and non-aces.

There are more draws than Jx in his range. Gotta bet that turn for value.

MAWG is loose passive and bought in less than full stack. You have some showdown value, and he doesn't bluff river. Check/fold. His Jx will check behind. May be worth him winning with Jx to get to see his cards. If he checks behind, say "your pair of Jacks is good" and if he has that or a flush, he'll show first.

If you believe that he has many draws in his range on the turn, then I don't see how check/calling the river is a good idea. Spades are obviously bad. But if any of his many draws are Ax, Kx, or Qx with a spade, then I'm not loving any of those cards. Another jack stinks, so does anything else that pairs the board really. Also, we don't have the exact flop, but there have got to be some OESD's or gutshot +spade hands that can catch a card we won't be able to see coming. Also 87, 89, T9 are still in there, and some of those are already beating us.

What are you expecting to beat when you check/call? On what river cards?

After we're called on the flop, and a 7 shows up to complete the OESD, I think the board is sufficiently scary to a MAWG who bought in short. If he breathes on the pot, I'm folding. And I doubt we are significantly better than break-even against his range on the turn, so betting is just a so-so idea

Check/fold River.

Straight draw got there on the turn, flush draw got there on the river. With 2 over cards on the board, the only hands we are beating if we check/call are bluffs with air. I don't see any V betting with air here.

I don't think we can rep the straight or flush by betting. Betting will fold out all V's air hands. We will get raised by a flush and called by a straight or a bluff-catching A/J.

Readless, I'm on the fence about the flop and river. I'm usually c-betting, forcing him to spade-check.

River, I think a $45 bet gets a good number of folds. We know he wasn't on the nut spade draw, and we assume he didn't flop a flush. I don't think he calls with a bare 10s or lower, unless he had it with the jack. Scared jacks should fold, since everything that beats them just got there.

If we bet, his Ks raises, Qs calls, and everything else toys with folding. Not a terrible spot for a half-pot bluff...

EDIT - thought dave's post was regarding turn, not river. Comments removed

C-betting flop is fine. I bluff river here a ton, probably 2/3 of the time, and usually around 33-40% of the pot. Goal is just to fold a jack or a rivered ace. If you think he was drawing on the flop, then, of course, c/f, but his line is as consistent with a jack as it is with a flush.

Heh. Missed your comment. But that'd be a terrible suggestion if I'd been talking about the turn, so I'll bet it was... Colorful

Barring a definite physical tell (eyes flick to stack, hands clench over stack), flop c-bet is 100% standard. V's range has way too many hands that we currently beat that can out-draw us.

River is a likely check/fold imo.

If he's not turning things into bluff I'd bet ott and c/f all rivers. If he will bluff missed spades and you can't tell if that's the case on brick rivers or if he's betting Jx, then I'd just c/f ott, it's just a result of being oop but he can't really mess up the rest of the hand.

Clarkmeister!

Hence why I said "non-spades and non-Aces."

Why is another Jack bad? If we were already behind Jx then we are still behind. Another Jack actually makes it less likely he has a Jack in the first place.

If he did hit the open-ender then there is a good chance he will raise us on the turn and we can safely bet/fold. He's not raising the turn with worse than TT and he's probably not tricky enough to raise the turn with flush-draws rather than the flop.

Yah, K's and Q's suck but that's poker. Our hand is a bluff catcher on the river. But that doesn't mean it doesn't have value on the turn.

I like playing Devil's advocate, so here goes. First reason not to C-bet is that you're out of position. You can probably gain most of the info that a C-bet gives you by simply paying attention to him after you check. Does he look strong? Did he immediately glance at his chips? Does he lift his cards for a spade check?

Second reason not to C-bet is that 1-2 players love suited cards, making him more likely to have called you with some garbage suited hand that now has you crushed. Again, checking and watching him will give you as much info as a c-bet.

Third reason not to C-bet is that if he's like most 1-2 players, he'll check it all the way to the river if you have him beat and would be unlikely to call any bet from you. If he's on a flush draw (which I realize you technically are beating on the flop), he's likely to call all the way down if he's like many 1-2 players. So you get value when the flush doesn't hit, but you inflate the pot for him if it does. Either way, your fold equity is nearly nil.

I realize that some will disagree with this analysis, but I thought I'd try to make the case for not c-betting in this situation.

On the turn we're up against made flushes, made straights, a multitude of draws to either and/or both, any J, and a batch of overcards with flush draws. I don't know what our equity is against that range, but I feel like it's gotta be like 53/47 or something really close.

Plus we'll never know on which river cards we realize our 53% and which we pay off 47%.

I just can't see bluff catching on this board. Maybe if we could beat a J I might be on board. usually a guy will bluff a missed flush draw when there are only 2 suited cards on the board. I don't think you'll find too many villains who are going to make a play here with KsQd. If villain chooses to draw and believes you dont' have a flush, then I'll bet a finger that he puts you on AJ. He's not going ot try and push you off two pair after he failed to represent the flush on the turn.

Bluff catching is for situations where the guy might actually bluff.

Heads up Cbet is fine otf. It gets value from the draws and forces under pairs, overcards and 8x hands to pay to peel.

If bottom card of flop was a 5 v has a few more flopped oesd combos in his range. But even with this and giving him all reasonable broadway FDs and Ax FDs and reasonable Jx and even excluding all sets and throwing in some 8x and under pair peels we are a dog to villain's continuing range otf once he calls. Dealing just to the turn we are 45/55 and 40/60 to the river.

When the 7 hits ott we are now 35/65. The 7 doesn't help our range so there is no bluff value. The number of flush combos are heavily outweighed by Jx straights and a few 2p combos. Checking turn is good here.

I'm with Mpethy OTR. Specifically this card, the As, eliminates a ton of villain flush combos and is an overcard to most Jx.

His check back ott makes straights unlikely removing all NFD from his range leaves him even more Jx heavy OTR than earlier.

I like turning our hand into a bluff here to fold the Jx. Although I don't see many Ax villain will be folding. Even though we are repping the flush now he will be calling with Aces up. But Jx is a substantial portion of his range now an worth bluffing at. Bet 1/2 pot.

Agreeing with Mpethy that once turn checks through you can bluff a 4th spade a ton. If you size it correctly you can profit often. Sometimes people will chase a low flush only to fold it since you obviously have a better one. It's not a strategy to go crazy with but when done well can be very effective.

I must play in radically different games than you, because I would expect two pair to call here close to never. I have seen $10 bets on this river fold two and three players of real hands, simply because they don't have a spade.

It's very possible from what I've heard of Vegas regs. But in my games when they river Aces up in this spot they're calling a fair amount and with some elasticity so I would lean toward sizing a little bigger than you suggested. But I still believe it's profitable.

Edit: my bad. I composed my previous post with several interruptions. I forgot by the time I got to the river that the river was the 4th flush card not the 3rd.

I agree our FE is much greater.

So are we bluffing ALL spades otr? Bet size?