$1-2, bottom two pair flop decision - Page 2 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

I think villain has AQ or AK a lot of the time here. I like a flop reraise to $120-125, if villain jams then I fold. If villain calls, since we've taken the lead villain will check the turn most of the time, after which we can check for pot control and evaluate river.

The reason I don't like flatting is I think villain is likely to lead the turn and I don't know what our plan would be then.

I agree completely. I felt that I should either fold or shove at the time, and felt that folding >>> shoving. Then I realized that stack sizes could accomodate a smallish reraise on the flop. Not sure if that is good or not though.

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03-25-2012 , 10:45 PM

#27

jack492505

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 3,272

Why wouldn't we know what our plan would be when he led the turn?

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03-25-2012 , 10:51 PM

#28

castlerook

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 100

Quote:

Originally Posted by jack492505

Why wouldn't we know what our plan would be when he led the turn?

Because we have no idea if we're ahead or behind--lots of villains will keep betting a big Ace in this spot, but of course we could be crushed as well.

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03-25-2012 , 10:56 PM

#29

PokerYoungster

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 228

Quote:

Originally Posted by jack492505

Why wouldn't we know what our plan would be when he led the turn?

If I was to flat the flop and V led the turn, I don't see how I could continue with the hand, unless it was a 3 or a 5. I don't see how I could rep a straight if a 2 or 4 came on turn. If a 6-J came, I am still in the same position as I was on the flop. I am ahead of AK and AQ and losing to 33, 55, A3, and A5. If a K or Q came, I am now behind V's entire range. If a spade came, I think he fires again, more than likely 50-75. I am sure if a non spade came he fires 100-125.

The more I think about it, the more I can't come up with a turn card that he checks. I feel he is betting all, but sizing his bets differently based on what turn card comes.

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03-25-2012 , 11:06 PM

#30

jack492505

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 3,272

Of course we don't know if we're ahead or behind, raising doesn't magically change that. You shouldn't play hands in the way that makes them easiest to play. IMO the best line is to flat because that's going to get the most value out of AK/AQ type hands which he might fold if you 3bet here.

If a good turn comes you are in the same position yes. Way ahead of his range.

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03-25-2012 , 11:44 PM

#31

btortori

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 40

I say we call here and call the rest of the hand unless an A peels off. If a spade rolls off and he checks I think a value bet is in line. Against his raising range here I think we have to call. Lots of big aces and a couple combos of two pairs and sets. If he has us coolered so be it but we can just fold this flop.

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03-26-2012 , 12:04 AM

#32

PokerYoungster

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 228

Quote:

Originally Posted by btortori

Did you mean to say "we can't" just fold this flop?

He doesn't have lots of big aces, only two, AK and AQ. This V doesn't check raise with Ax, only A3, A5, AK. I don't even think he check raises that often with AQ.

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03-26-2012 , 12:09 AM

#33

jack492505

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 3,272

You realize its 4x as likely that he has AK as A3 and A5 combined right? And over twice as likely that he has AK as A3/A5/33/55 combined.

And if he EVER raises with AQ its even more of a slam dunk. This shouldn't be such a long thread. If you believe your read is accurate, and it seems plausible all you need to do is decide if you think he folds AK if you make it $150. If he doesn't, make it $150. If he does, call and call every non A/K turn and river.

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03-26-2012 , 12:12 AM

#34

PokerYoungster

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 228

Quote:

Originally Posted by jack492505

Why do you say we are way ahead of his range?

I really only feel he has 6 hands in this range, 33, 55, A3s, A5s, AK and a very rare chance of AQ.

Based on this, there are 1 33, 1 55, 1 A5s, 2 A3s. Those are hands that beat us.

There are 12 AK, and 12 AQ. That means theoretically we are only behind 5 hands and a head of 12, or 24. Is this what you meant by way ahead?

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03-26-2012 , 12:14 AM

#35

PokerYoungster

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 228

Quote:

Originally Posted by jack492505

I just evaluated that. Now I understand, thanks. During the hand I didn't even think of how many combos of AK and AQ there are compared to 33, 55, A3 and A5. Thanks for pointing that out!

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03-26-2012 , 12:17 AM

#36

jack492505

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 3,272

No problem. If you want to focus on one thing to improve your game, think about practicing evaluating hand combos on the fly. Its not that hard and it will give you an automatic advantage against 95% of the people you play against.

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03-26-2012 , 12:24 AM

#37

PokerYoungster

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 228

Quote:

Originally Posted by jack492505

Yes, if I would have been thinking there are 4-5x more combos that I beat than beat me, a call or raise would have been so obvious. This hand has opened my eyes a lot about understanding combos, I will definitely start doing this while playing.

Spoiler:

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