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1/2 Bottom Set - Do We Get it in Here? 1/2 Bottom Set - Do We Get it in Here?

08-02-2011 , 12:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yodachoda
Here, our all in equity is 40%. If our hand is 40% equity or higher against villain's all in range, then we can play for stacks with Q10 here.

Against

AJs,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d,KQs,KdTd, Kd9d,Q8s+,Td9d,9d8d,AQo,KQo,Q8o+

We are 44.083% equity, so we can stack off with Q10. Again, I think this is a reasonable range for an aggro player. A nit might only have AQ, KQ, and 55 though.

So getting all in isn't a huge huge money maker. Like I said, we will lose the hand more often than we win. But it has higher expectation than folding.
Again, I'm not saying I'm all right about poker or you are all wrong. I'm not going to comment on your comments regarding your poker life, as I don't see their applicability to this hand.

I bolded some hands I find incredibly far-fetched for calling our shove. Q8(9)o/s in a raised pot calling our 80bb shove seems incredibly hopeful.

You have also ignored any 5dXd combos which will decrease our equity as those hands are ~49% vs. our hand. We also left AQs/o out of the range (I think I'm not sure why you have Q8+ and KQ if AQ is included...dunno).

You constructed a range I find fanciful to be BREAK EVEN for this move. That's pretty crap man.
1/2 Bottom Set - Do We Get it in Here? Quote
08-02-2011 , 12:59 PM
Another range: I added only ONE bluff, AJo. I added more flush draws.

55,AQs,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad4d,Ad3d,Ad2d,KQs ,KdTd,Kd9d,Kd8d,Q7s+,Td9d,9d8d,8d5d,7d5d,6d5d,5d4d ,AQo-AJo,KQo

We are 45.745% equity. Again, I'm assuming villain raises draws on flop because an aggro player understands that's often the correct play. Everything changes if we're up against a known tight passive nit.
1/2 Bottom Set - Do We Get it in Here? Quote
08-02-2011 , 01:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yodachoda
We are 45.745% equity. Again, I'm assuming villain raises draws on flop because an aggro player understands that's often the correct play. Everything changes if we're up against a known tight passive nit.
So in the widest range you are able to come up with this move is slightly -EV?

You are also ignoring sets, the possibility of us shoving and getting 2 calls (and being DEAD 95% of the time in that case), etc.

I'm not sold.
1/2 Bottom Set - Do We Get it in Here? Quote
08-02-2011 , 01:03 PM
I don't think Q7 or Q8 or Q9 is getting it in here
1/2 Bottom Set - Do We Get it in Here? Quote
08-02-2011 , 01:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by abgtr
So in the widest range you are able to come up with this move is slightly -EV?

You are also ignoring sets, the possibility of us shoving and getting 2 calls (and being DEAD 95% of the time in that case), etc.

I'm not sold.
Huh? With 45.745% equity it's slightly +EV, not -EV. I ignored QQ and JJ because of preflop action. Remember, there's always the chance of a bluff. I'm pretty much ignoring bluffs except the AJ. I don't think this range is too optimistic.

Anyway man, it's impossible to do this kind of analysis at the table unless you have a laptop with pokerstove and ask the table to give you a few minutes. That's why I just use SPRs. It ensures you can't make a huge mistake and it's a good way to guide you. SPR of 2 with TP decent kicker is good enough for me here.

Also, let me add that the flush and straight draws are mostly what make Q10 a stack off. If there was no flush draw, I'd agree with folding Q10.
1/2 Bottom Set - Do We Get it in Here? Quote
08-02-2011 , 01:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yodachoda
Huh? With 45.745% equity it's slightly +EV, not -EV. I ignored QQ and JJ because of preflop action. Remember, there's always the chance of a bluff. I'm pretty much ignoring bluffs except the AJ. I don't think this range is too optimistic.

Anyway man, it's impossible to do this kind of analysis at the table unless you have a laptop with pokerstove and ask the table to give you a few minutes. That's why I just use SPRs. It ensures you can't make a huge mistake and it's a good way to guide you. SPR of 2 with TP decent kicker is good enough for me here.

Also, let me add that the flush and straight draws are mostly what make Q10 a stack off. If there was no flush draw, I'd agree with folding Q10.
Except that
Quote:
Originally Posted by Noobie Newbertson
I don't think Q7 or Q8 or Q9 is getting it in here
1/2 Bottom Set - Do We Get it in Here? Quote
08-02-2011 , 01:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yodachoda
Also, let me add that the flush and straight draws are mostly what make Q10 a stack off. If there was no flush draw, I'd agree with folding Q10.
Shockingly, I got that the presence of FDs increases the equity of QT in this spot.

I'd like to add that a ton of FDs have terrific equity in this hand as any non-NFD is likely to have at least a gutshot straight draw or bottom pair. All NFDs have at least one overcard to our pair, giving them pretty decent equity. Against all those hands we are forced to fade ~12-15 outs. Against all other value hands we are wrecked. Even KQ (which prolly never raises but still has us killed).

How can you discount AA/KK/QQ/JJ from SBs range? Because HJ raised SB is always folding?

You are making up ranges to fit getting it in, not getting it in based on ranges.

The ranges of both of these villains is exceedingly strong and QT is toast. I'm not going to continue arguing about this, I see we won't agree.
1/2 Bottom Set - Do We Get it in Here? Quote
08-02-2011 , 01:19 PM
Clear shove spot just fade.the outs today what are u a wackjob advocating this being a good spot to stack off with q10 yoda u mook
1/2 Bottom Set - Do We Get it in Here? Quote

      
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