1/2 9 handed. I had about $120. Villain had around $200. He was an old guy who kept going on and on about how he had been to Vegas plenty of times, and he would critique everyones play at the table. He was constantly making river "soul reads" and wasn't correct the one time he "soul read" me on a big pot. I had been playing tight the last few hands because of terrible cards or decent cards in poor position.

Hero is dealt AK EP, raises to $10. 3 callers.

Flop is Q710

Hero checks. I think that it was a mistake to not cbet here. Its checked down.

Turn is 5

Hero bets $30, Villain calls from LP. The other 2 fold, its heads up.

River is 10

The only way I can really win this is to bluff at it. Is it reasonable to bluff here, and if so how much? At this point I was pretty sure he didn't have a 10, and I think if he hit a flush he would have raised the turn. I was putting him on a Q, and if I make a huge bet here I really don't think he can make a call with just that.

Do you bet a fd on this flop? If so definitely c-bet.

I expect a 7 or pp from villain, or a weak Q like Q9.

Don't think our shove folds out any Q. I'm shoving if I think he's not hero calling with a low pp and I c/f if he seems to make those calls when my line doesn't make much sense (because to be fair it doesn't unless we are known for check/calling flush draws on this type of flop).

I think I'd really want a little more details on history with villain...when he "soul reads", has he usually been folding? You said he was wrong about you once, but did he think you had the goods and folded to a bluff or did he think you were bluffing and called with slim value?

If your read is that he will fold to a decent bet often enough to make it +EV, then make a decent bet. If he will fold to a small bet (looking like a suck bet, depending on his "soul reading" might be very effective), then a small bet doesn't have to win as often.

But if he is more likely to read you for a bluff, and calls more than he should, then I think you have to check here and fold if he bets...

Hmm... this seems like a pretty bad spot to bluff. You basically rep only a flush which you didn't c-bet with four on the flop. What other hands could you be given credit for in this spot?

I think your check on the flop is fine unless you are planning on bluffing, in which case you need to c-bet the flop to keep your range wide. If you are planning on c-betting and then c/f on the turn if called then your flop check is the way to go since you will almost certainly be getting called/raised on this wet flop.

We rep nothing, stop betting. Don't bet turn. We bet all nfds (and most fds) otf. We bet all Qx otf, and we almost never bet Tx ott.

didn't read it response.... its 1/2, don't bluff.
::reads post::

unless this player is the kind of donk to call your turn bet with nothing but bare kc7x and give up you should stop firing. i think any decent q will look you up if you shove.

read it response... its 1/2 and our line is weak. don't bluff.

If you bluff or not is irrelevant. My question: Why do you have to win this hand and why did you check the flop after 2bet pre? I really don’t understand why do you pot yourself in the position that “the only way to win this hand” will be for you to bluff with air after checking the flop.

AT

if im bluffing, im value bet bluffing, im most definitely not shoving on the river.

but i like betting the flop and turn and river better....

I would c/c flop or bet. As played, on the turn I would have check/raised. Our equity + fold equity should make a big turn raise +EV. As played, I would probably c/c river if the bet is reasonable. Ace high will be the best hand here like 40% of the time or so I think. He probably doesn't have Q-X or 7-X.

you beat a ton of hands here. all draws that didnt have a pair you beat. i might even c/c river if i had a read. its unlikely the guy checked back a Q on this board. its unlikely he has a T, so if he were to bet the river his line doesnt equate to much besides a missed draw so id likely call. sure you get value owned when he was bluffing with the best hand at times but you beat so many missed draws here. KJ J9 any lone club

and it may be possible villain has a Q but its impossible to tell based on position. were the other 2 callers from the blinds? was villain last to act on the flop?

if hes last its likely he doesnt have a Q given hte action. he still may have bet a Q on the flop after you checked, but thats a little less likely then if hes last to act