Villain: late 20s to early 30s black man; TAG but borderline spewy ($250)
Hero: mid 20s asian man; TAG ($700)

A bit of history: villain opened AJs in EP and open folded it to my 3 bet. We agreed to show each other so I showed him my KK.

On to the hand: Villain opens $7 in EP. Two callers. Hero is on the CO with AK and squeezes to $33. Folded back to villain who calls, the other two fold.

Flop: 542 ($83)

Villain donks $25. I put him on AK/AQ, 99-QQ. Given how I have two overs and a gutshot I have to call. Hero calls.

Turn: 9 ($128)

Villain checks. I have showdown value. Hero checks.

River: 8 ($128)

Villain bets $25. Now I'm feeling much less confident. Could very well be a blocker thin value bet from a hand like TT JJ. I am chopping with AK and beat AQ though and given the ridiculous pot odds this must be a crying call right?

If this range is truly as strong as 99+ then I think check on turn is fine but if his range is wider his check indicates he is scared so I might bomb it on the turn if he's good enough to fold smallish pocket pairs and won't chase straight draws (which all have us beat right now).

River is probably a fold. Need to be right like 14% of the time so if he can value bluff with a flush draw then this is a call.

BTW, when he bets flop I don't expect him to have a naked AK/AQ hand very often. More likely he has a pocket pair trying to find out where he's at or a flush draw (mostly pocket pairs).

I would think he has you beat. Donk bets are often weak...but seems this guy is pretty tight given yalls hand history. It could be a blocker bet with a 6 or a FD..its unlikely though.
You said u have a gutshot and two overs you have to call. Well you dont have to call, raising is a better option..your repping a big PP. You showed KK earlier. You could always fold the flop too. He most likely has a medium PP.

Yeah I guess I over-estimated my showdown value here. Probably better to raise flop to $85-$100 then shove turn.

I don't like a raise on this flop because villain can easily justify a call by putting you on a flush draw like AKss. A raise on a rainbow flop is much more believable.

i think the decision here is OTF.

any idea on his EP open and 3! calling range pre? does villain like to donk low boards? does villain's sizing relative to his hand strength?

normally a spewy TAG is someone who can't fold TP or overpairs, he showed he can fold AJ to a 3! so he has more pairs than Ace high hands here. his donk bet looks more of a blocker after showing him your KK.

we have 2 options, raise flop or call flop to bet turn if checked. i choose the later for less variance but will give up if I don't hit A or K your call OTF basically turns our hand face up.

ap, fold..you cant rep anything now based on flop and turn action.

Well the thing is I've shown him KK before and like neverloses said his range is pair heavy and the small donk is probably a blocker. I'm sure if he tries to put me on a range I have way more KK+ than AKss.

We would never check KK on the turn.

Turn is the time to bluff at it but checking is correct.

We are dead grass-fed ground beef on the river.

Yeah shoulda just folded but pot odded myself into a call. He had JJ. He was blocker betting.