Quote:
Originally Posted by Grima21
The only thing we are ahead of is KT or a bluff. We are 35-45% against 2p. We are 25% against a set. We are 22% against a straight. We are 13% against the made flush. I'm not sure where we have any "sick equity". Even if we "make" our straight on the river (hit a T), we have no idea if its even good (although he would have to playing some pretty low clubs to even have the flush). I think you have to b/f this for $45-50 on the turn. If you check and he bets $55, AP, you have to put him on a bluff or fold. You don't have the hand equity to justify the call the 30% pot call if you don't have some bluff in his range.
Check/Call is totally standard for me against a decent player. On the villains' side, I'm totally betting this turn if you check with things like QT, AQ, etc. because it's such a scare card. It's just a standard opened pot, and what looks like a c-bet, I'm not exactly putting you on a monster here if I'm the villain. I might even think I'm value-betting AQ.
Hero easily has 30% equity or whatever, and we want to keep bluffs in his range. I totally agree that villain will often shut down after you call this turn.
Jesse