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1/2: AK 1/2: AK

03-20-2013 , 01:18 PM
I would much rather bet/folding the turn vs check/call, but I prefer check/calling to check/shoving.

I don't mind calling the turn here; I actually expect it to go check/check on the river a fair amount of the time against standard low-stakes villains.
1/2: AK Quote
03-20-2013 , 02:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grima21
The only thing we are ahead of is KT or a bluff. We are 35-45% against 2p. We are 25% against a set. We are 22% against a straight. We are 13% against the made flush. I'm not sure where we have any "sick equity". Even if we "make" our straight on the river (hit a T), we have no idea if its even good (although he would have to playing some pretty low clubs to even have the flush). I think you have to b/f this for $45-50 on the turn. If you check and he bets $55, AP, you have to put him on a bluff or fold. You don't have the hand equity to justify the call the 30% pot call if you don't have some bluff in his range.
Check/Call is totally standard for me against a decent player. On the villains' side, I'm totally betting this turn if you check with things like QT, AQ, etc. because it's such a scare card. It's just a standard opened pot, and what looks like a c-bet, I'm not exactly putting you on a monster here if I'm the villain. I might even think I'm value-betting AQ.

Hero easily has 30% equity or whatever, and we want to keep bluffs in his range. I totally agree that villain will often shut down after you call this turn.

Jesse
1/2: AK Quote
03-20-2013 , 03:03 PM
We only started the hand with 100BB and V with a big stack probably has a wide PF calling range on the button.

He is likely raising 2 pair+ on this wet flop with you as the aggressor and a relative short stack. So we have the best hand OTF and the Qc isn't the greatest turn given that it can only improve V's hands we were ahead of OTF. That being said, we have decent equity regardless of his holding and big stacks in position sometimes like to "represent hitting a scare card" and bluff/semi-bluff raise. It seems like I'm the only one, but I sort of like a small turn bet with the intention of calling a shove.

CRAI would be the next best option IMO. I think if we c/c, we are in a **** spot OTR if no club falls and if it does, he is very likely to not pay us off.
1/2: AK Quote
03-20-2013 , 03:05 PM
I think I play the hand the same way.

I think on the turn I'm just hoping Villain offers me a good price to continue with our 12 nut outs. We need around 3:1 to continue and we're not quite getting 2.5:1. The problem is that I think our implied odds probably suck. Although, our Ace outs might also be clean / good; but, if Villain already has a flush/straight then we lose some outs. I think I fold.

ETA: Hmmm, maybe check/folding is to weak given our show of weakness / fact our hand could be good / too many nuttish outs. But what are we doing on the river if we whiff? Check/folding? Otherwise, if we're thinking of calling a bet, doesn't that make the turn call not a slam dunk?

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/2: AK Quote
03-20-2013 , 09:06 PM
hmmm, tough spot. Let me just say that I think it's unlikely we are ahead here, and calling the turn just to fold a brick river is awful and calling just to hit one of our outs is awful, especially when we could be drawing dead and have no implied odds. Villian would have to be a proven floater for me to consider calling down or capable of turning something like QT into a bluff. Also worth noting that we have the ace of clubs so him floating something like AQ or AJ without that card is unlikely. I think a <half size pot bet is an interesting play if he doesn't raise without a flush, which most opponents wouldn't so we get to realize our equity for a cheap price, then we can check/decide on the river, mostly check fold if we don't hit.
1/2: AK Quote

      
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