Quote:
Originally Posted by BigSlick2006
Make it $80-90 to go...I would rather take down the pot right there than mess around going multiway with Aces.
You don't want to think about it this way. As long as we raise enough to pot-commit ourselves on the flop, we gain EV from each additional caller that comes in - because no matter what they hold, our hand is a huge favorite! Yes, we'll win a lower % of the time overall, but we'll win
far more when we do.
Our goal here is to raise enough to pot-commit ourselves, but not much more - because we're gaining so much equity with each caller. If we assume we'll get 1 caller, a raise to $80 will make the pot $265 with $195 behind - great, this is an SPR under 1 and we can shove without regret.
Can we do better?
If we assume there'll be more than 1 caller, even a 2x raise to $60 gives us a low enough SPR to shove the flop blind (pot will be $225-285 with $215 behind). I actually kind of like this play, because it gives the villain sitting on $150 an opportunity to make a bad fold OTF for his last $90 given pot odds. (Remember, we're shoving there no matter what, so give your opponents opportunities to make mistakes.)
Bottom line: bet only as much as you're 100% sure at least one person will call. If that's $100 or $120, great. If it's only $60, no biggie. Because more callers = more Sklansky bucks.