Quote:
Originally Posted by BignutzOnerz
Any more info on villain? When you say he's tight do you mean he's only ever showed up with reasonable hands, or has he only ever shown aggression with the stone nuts? Does it mean he's only calling your MP open with 6% of hands?
To fold here we need to be fairly confident he's never 3-betting you pre with TT or QQ. This might be true if he wants to play those hands against you in postion, but I highly doubt he's flatting queens every time here to a MP open.
I'll break down what I would assume his range could look like, but this is with limited information. You should do this yourself as you have a better idea of what he could have than I would.
First we'll start with the value part of his range that we're losing to. That's 8 combos of QT and 6 combos of sets assuming he folds 22 pre. So in total V has 14 combos of value we're losing to.
Now things he bets for value that we're ahead of. 6 combos of AQ and we'll give him 5(out of 7) combos of AK assuming he 3-bets some of the time (this is the kind of stuff where your read will be much better than mine) totaling 11.
Now if he is SUPER tight, as in NEVER 3-bets AK, AQ, QQ or TT pre and then never raises his bluffs here, a fold here is actually good. We're winning 41.5% of the time against this range. However, if we give him 1 or 2 combos of QQ and 2 combos of AKs that he 3-bets pre, this fold becomes bad as we're winning roughly 54% of the time and if we GII on the flop we're making slightly more than double our money.
So my advice to you is to take the time to range him fairly precisely on pokerstove and figure out whether or not this is a fold.
Thanks for this breakdown. I still need to learn how to do this type of analysis - it felt close, however empirical evidence is obviously better than intuitive reflection
I do believe villain would be 3betting AK, QQ, and would flat 22, Q10.
When I say tight, I mean very strong showdown hands. By end of session, I saw one pretty loose/bad showdown hand by villain where he had limped otb with 105cc in a family pot. Other than that, ranges seemed appropriate, and in any type of pot where he grew that action he was showing down nutted hands (sets, two pairs, etc).