There is a difference between a MW limped pot where fish has invested <10% of stack and this where nearly a third of stacks have already gone in. I think quite ordinary fish try to win big pots with their 2-pairs on 4 straights. Certainly the guys in my game do.

Yes some will find a fold but why are we so concerned this particular V will? He seems loose preflop and on flop and yet you want to assume he is much tighter than normal in 3bet pots in a sort of precautionary principle approach. I'd kind of agree if we didn't have the 2nd nuts in an SPR 1.1 pot! There just doesn't seem to be any room left to play this one cautiously without either giving a free card or risking a massive folding error.

Betting small on turn isn't costless. You haven't stated how you deal with the river after betting < allin on turn either and that is one of my big concerns with the smaller betting line.

What do you do if you bet around half pot on turn and river is as played? You're beaten by straights and flushes and SPR is 0.5! Will you fold that river?

What if V is capable of folding his lower set or two pair on that river? Then you miss that value when you're ahead but have to pay off when behind.

Yeah we can bet 1/3 pot on turn but then V can draw profitably and we still have a significantly < 1 SPR river. Can we fold river then? If we can't haven't we just made it worse for ourselves by ensuring more flushes are in V's range?

I presume our small turn bet is b/c not b/f too?

Yea if we bet small it's to b/c never to b/f, it's better to c/f if folding is the intention.

I think the bet sizing and awkward stack size is all solved if i make the PF 3! $50 pre, cbet $60+ which leaves the turn super easy to play and this thread never gets started.

I went back and stoved some ranges and below are the results
- KK/TT, AJs+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+ we are 69%
- If we add QQ to the above range we are 60%
- And our equity drops slightly if we remove the bottom end if villain's range: ATo/AJo, KTs/KJs, etc.


I think betting 1/2-1/3 pot on the turn and calling a raise is probably optimal in this spot.

- I don't believe villain folds any kind of two pairs
- AK, KK, TT, and QJs I think he ships the flop which is why we can remove some portion of these hands
- QQ/JJ i think folds the flop anyway since even this villain likely know I'll DB most turns
- KK I think he 4b/gets it in PF most of the time as well so I'm actually having a tough time assigning an exact range for villain
- lastly, if villain had a Q he bets the turn... like always
- if he had a flush i think he bets smaller on the river... some of the time.

I don't think I should be folding this hand in this spot

Sure, if you think he folds sets and top 2 most of the time, then it's just a bad value bet. It's still not a bluff.

My analysis is he has probably 5 likely combos of Qs (AQ, KdQd) and those are somewhat less likely because he checked turn. I'm assuming he doesn't have QJ, QT in his range much and they offset the times he plays a Q on the turn differently (or raises flop with QJ). I think he hems and haws with his sets (6 convos) and probably AK (4 combos) and some AT, KdJd and says "you got a Q? I guess you have a Q... OK I call." (Or "can't fold a set! I call!") If you think he folds, then you're right. As Ragequit said, it also prevents us from making huge folding mistakes on the river.

If he only calls 50% with sets and top 2 (5 combos vs. 5 likely Qs), it's still +EV as we have 20% equity against Qx but his other hands are drawing close to dead.

Balerion, re: $200 on river meaning more than calling the 3 bet, I think the river bet is more telling because it's just a much bigger bet on a later street. I think people call 3 bets of $25 more widely than is necessarily wise, but very seldom overship river as a bluff or for thin value. I.e., I think it's more likely that he got to the river with 2 unforeseen diamonds than it is that he's shoving here with less than a Q. I always find myself thinking "how could he have (hand that beats me) here!? He (did X earlier in the hand)...it makes no sense" and then end up being shown exactly that hand that "doesn't make sense."