I really feel the pain of not playing live recently in hands like this:

Horseshoe Tunica $1-3
$170 effective (Villain covers Hero)

Reads: Villain is a young-to-middle-aged African American man. He seems to be playing a lot of pots preflop. I recall seeing him make one or two bluffs. I saw him fold a flush to a river check-raise on a paired board.

In our only significant hand together, I raised KQ from the HJ and cbet a JTx flop with two . He donked really small on the blank turn which was fine with me, and then bet about half pot on the river. I folded and he showed the A saying something about ace-jack.

Table image: Since the last AA hand I've lost a little on the aforementioned hand, won a couple of pots with the cbet, and still folded a lot.

Preflop
A A - Hero in BB

MP limps, Villain limps, SB completes, Hero raises to $12, limper folds, Villain calls, SB folds.


Flop ($25 net of rake, BBJ, and tip -- $168 behind)

976

Hero bets $20, Villain raises to $65, Hero ???


Just the sort of situation I dread playing aces 85x deep, but let's be positive and say it's a super-common situation for me to learn from.

My read is that Villain probably isn't raising that much (though he likely would raise smaller) with sets or straights. Any two pair is certainly within his range, let's say any 97 or 76 and only 96 suited.

I also think a lot of draws could be in his range -- maybe as wide as any 98, 87, or 86, possibly some other stuff like T9, 65, Ax, etc. But consider it open for discussion how much we should discount these.

Just to have a range to Stove, I put in:

TT,66*,AhQh,AhJh,KhQh,T9s,96s+,87s,76s,Td9s,Th9c** ,Th9d,Th9s,97o+,87o,76o

*Since my read is he's not playing sets like this, usually.
**T9o is within his range, but perhaps top pair+gutshot wouldn't be a hand he'd play aggressively, so I only picked the heart backdoor draws. Also I intentionally omitted 65.

My equity vs. that range is 46%.

Virtually any turn card except maybe the A is going to be hard to play OOP, so I'm laying horrible implied odds no matter how I look at it.

Probably just fold and figure if he's playing a draw aggressively, well, that's the right of position, right?

If you feel that is his range (I would personally include sets - since why wouldn't you raise a set on this board (drawy), then shove for value. If he is aggressive (which I take from the range you give him), this is an easy shove. From nits, I would consider a fold. Calling is worst option here imo.

Agreed. But I also think the range I give him may be too optimistic for a player I'd term semi-aggressive.

I left one element out of my read: I did see him chase a flush draw to serious action on the turn, to a bet and an all-in call (actually a raise to $2 more), getting 3:1 because he "felt like gambling" or something he said. His hand was basically face up after he asked whether the $2 more reopened the betting, so I don't think he was counting on implied odds.

Back to our hand -- bet-folding AA on one of maybe the wettest 15% of boards imaginable seems super-exploitable, but I'm not sure how many players in a $1-2 game are exploiting it. TBH when he raises here I pretty much think he has exactly 2 pair, but I tank and convince myself combo draws are in his range too (and they might well be).

Earlier that day at the Horseshoe next door I felt like people were jumping all over my cbets and I often worry that this is the case with semi-competent players against me in B&M. So that may be impacting my reads.

this is a bad spot, but it would be not as bad if you raised to 17-20 instead. as played...i shove but don't really like it.

I realize it's B&M, but there's only $8 in the pot. Funny enough, the difference between $1-3 next door and $1-2 here really does make the game play a little nittier. If I make $16 more I expect to take down the dead $8 -- not terrible, really, but surely I can play AA more profitably even OOP.

Then again, I might make it $17 to go laying 4:3 and get 4-way action. Gotta love B&M.

i don't know the tunica games, but in CT and AC, I'll almost always get called by 1 or 2 people in this spot. that's for 1/2. and i don't have a wild image or anything. If your table doesn't tolerate that kind of action, then fine, but I'm always surprised at how much action people will give you playing live.

i hate to obsess over pf, but you have 3 limpers...just make it 18. and if they always fold to that, start raising to 18 alot more

EDIT: wait im confused. is this 1/2 or 1/3? title says 1/2, but the OP has 1/3...

Durrrr, I made up my own template and then forgot to change it. This game is in the Gold Strike $1-2 -- a significantly tighter game than the Horseshoe $1-3.



Yep!

Don't think I buy what NLHE:TAP says about BB bluffs, though. They say to bluff hands with little equity because you could have seen a free flop with SCs, suited queens and jacks, etc.

But that's if you expect to get limp/reraised off your hand. So few players L/RR, never as a rebluff, at $1-2 that it's pretty safe to raise Q4 here if and only if the game is playing pretty nitty and people are folding to my EP raises, right?

But good point, i'm not SURE I'll take down the limps at $17 to go, so this is definitely a case of recalibrating to live play.

it's fine to fold...when you do don't sweat it coz if they are never folding when you have the exact same situation in reverse you win

You know when someone is having a night you are, I am targeting you for extra special "attention".

I am curious about your experiences in Tunica. I only get to play there now and then, and only on weekends. I only play at the Gold Strike, and have found it to be very loose. If I open for $15-20, I usually get 1-4 callers. I have always thought of the games there as loose, but maybe I have just been at the right tables?

I'm checking the flop here, and since he limp-called as opposed to cold-calling he is much more likely to have something that hit this flop like a pocket pair or SC (even though he doesn't have implied odds for the SC but hey this is 1/2) than high cards.

I would check/call and probably fold later on if it seems like he wants to get all his money in especially if the draws get there.

Wow, the flop seems a bit early to take a pot control line but I guess it does have the merit that it keeps me out of this particular problem. Seems like it loses a lot of value the other ~39 of 40 times he doesn't flop two pair or better, though.

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The more I think about this, it's wishful thinking to put all those draws in an unknown's range. (Hopefully not just ROT here....) There are regulars against whom this should be a pretty clear call, but that wasn't the case here.

Bet/folding the flop is weak but anything else pot-commits me. If multiple people start taking shots at my cbets, or if the same player does it more than twice, then we'll start adjusting ranges accordingly.

The only reason I would check this flop is to induce a check-raise.

Is your range well defined for your opponent here? He could be easily trying to push you off your hand here. You arent even 100 BB deep, I'm shoving here as well.

Makes me feel better that several thinking players are adopting this line.

As you've no doubt surmised, he had two pair (specifically 97o). I tanked, shoved, and didn't draw out.

A regular sitting next to me reacted by saying, "C'mon, man, what'd you think he had? Can't you tell he had two pair?" And I stammered something about a wet board*, lapsed into introspection about that hand as well as getting effectively stacked with AA previously at the same table, and left the casino three hands later thoroughly convinced I was the fish in this game.

Still not convinced my range is accurate, but at least I'm not convinced I was the sucker here either.

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*DO NOT justify your hand reading like this at the table. Very very very bad habit, shame on me, etc. etc.

I would respond "but I had aces" and let them tell you exactly how they would play a big pocket pair.
I don't think this player is messing with you or "finding out where you're at" - his range is all the suspected draws (pair+oesd, fd+gutshot) and the made hands you worry about. Seems like the type of player who would call with a hand like KJ or A9o. I mean, look, he is overlimping in position, hoping to get lucky, instead of attacking the limper with a raise. I know preflop =/= postflop but it is somewhat telling.
That said, I think you can do any of the 3 things, including calling. Usually the plan when calling is to "bomb a safe turn" since your equity goes up drastically on blanks and plummets on 5 or T.

lol this is such an EZ shove

if you're not shoving here...pls stop playing poker

reason: I'm in tunica right now...just played the 1-3 at Horseshoe tonight...pretty weak imo

Thanks for the comments.

Well, good. The action taken at the table still authorizes me to play poker.

Upon reflection, though, against an unknown I think this is a bet/fold. Some decent-to-tough $1-2 players are raising draws here, but not enough to assume unknowns are. If he's one of those decent players, I'll pretend I had AK and say, "Nice hand."

Once I think people are taking shots at my cbets, I'll stack off all day.

Dude PLZ shove this hand.