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1/2 AA flop decision

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03-03-2024 , 07:41 PM

Bloobird

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 24,250

8-handed, I'm in the CO, there's a straddle on. Folds around to MP on my right who opens to 12, I look down at AA and pop it up to 35, folds back around to MP who calls.

MP has been relatively tight in the couple of hours I've been playing, not uber-nitty but not getting out of line at all that I've seen. He's on a stack of about 400, I cover.

Flop comes out 987r.

MP checks, I put out 50, and MP relatively quickly raises to 150.

Thoughts? If we're folding here should we have checked back flop?

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03-03-2024 , 08:20 PM

maromb78

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 362

Against a decent player I might make a nitty fold here. I think your bet on the flop is fine. 99,88,89,78, even 10j are all in the range. If he has any on those your basically drawing dead. He's put in just about half his stack at this point so regardless of what comes on the turn your facing a jam. I would just fold and wait for a better spot.

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03-03-2024 , 10:15 PM

donkatruck

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 1,911

I think we can discount KK as that is probably 4-bet pre. If he ever doing this with QQ? Typically not. Even against a range that includes JJ (77-JJ, JT) we are a pretty serious underdog. I guess there's always a spazz factor but unless V has shown spazz/spew tendencies I think we can make money by folding here.

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03-03-2024 , 10:31 PM

Man of Means

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 5,108

Yeah, I think if you bet you probably do so with a read that you're smoked if a c/r occurs and can fold.
Checking can help get you closer to showdown but also make it easier for a snug villain to call a bet or two on the turn and river with a worse hand.

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03-04-2024 , 02:47 PM

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,781

Versus this player, it's a fold.

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03-04-2024 , 03:04 PM

TJ Eckleburg12

Only Gives Out Winners

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 15,148

Heads up, check back flop. That is not the texture AA wants to see.

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03-04-2024 , 06:13 PM

LanceF

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2024 Posts: 8

Just curious what you ended up doing? I think there's a good chance he has 10s in that spot in most cases considering you said he hasn't played much out of line, or another set holding that he wants to get immediate value out of and deny straight draws. Could have JJ in that spot a lot too. Even if you're up against 10s you're still losing ~40% of the time and he's already committed half his stack to the pot.

Tough spot nonetheless.

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03-05-2024 , 03:08 AM

Bloobird

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 24,250

in game, I tanked for a bit and found the fold, he didn't show

thanks for comments all, I think a definite leak of mine is c-betting too often and this may have been one of those spots

feeling good about the fold at least

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