3pm Weds afternoon, 1/2, 8 handed

Table has been very tight since I sat down 30 mins ago, most hands are finished PF or after Cbet on flop. None of the Vs have chased their draw/ calling with junk so far.

Hero (£500) - Opened 2 hands on CO and BTN so far, folded after getting resistance. Joked about how tight the table with player to my right.

V1 (£450) - Spanish mid 20s, have not gone out of line, but called with A7 against my BTN opened, and called BB 3bet with AK. He got lucky, turned a 7 and took a good size pot from BB.

V2 (£27) - My friend to my right who always buyin no more than 25bb. Good player but yet to be convinced it is -Ev playing short forever.

Hero has AA in BB

V1 opens to £10 UTG, MP called, folded to V2 and he jammed £26.

I feel it is more profitable underrep my hand by flatting to allow V1 to 4bet, since his opening range is very strong UTG on this particular table. So there are 2 plans

1. If V1 4bet, I will 5bet jam
2. If V1 flats, I will bet big on flop + turn

What percentage do you need to think V1 will 4bet in order for plan 1 to be profitable?

I don't think it's likely at all that V1 4bets here. I also don't think you should. I think you're right that it is more profitable long term to keep both players in pre-flop and take it down post flop. So I would call here to keep both players in and hide the strength of your hand. V2 didn't have any folding power post flop if he flatted here, so he has to shove. The real action is with V1 and why take a chance that he folds with 2 raises to his original bet, especially with the table being so tight. Calling here is the right move.

If V1 does 4bet, then maybe you do shove with a 5bet but doing so gives your hand away so there is no reason to raise without shoving. I think the chances he does this though are extremely low. I think he calls after you call and folds anything lower than QQ if you raise, and probably should fold unless he too has AA.

Stacks are too deep here to be flatting OOP.
We are giving him the right to call with almost any two decent cards here with some great IO and position.
I would 4bet.
If the open and the jam was bigger (so that we had >8-10% of our stack in the middle pre flop) then I could get behind a flat more (esp if UTG is likely to 4bet) but as played, I would 4bet to ~60 here and then plan to stack off post flop on most run outs.

You need to have seen V1 3bet/4bet light in order for plan 1 to work. It sounds like you're hoping V1 will 4bet without any evidence he will. I don't think V1 will 4bet without an absolute monster.

I would 4bet because cold-calling an UTG raise and all-in 3bet already looks incredibly strong. A 4bet could be viewed as an isolation move against V2. You also want to get as much money in as possible early because AA typically only gets worse over multiple streets against 2 players.

4b small to like 65. Then you can bet 120 otf and shove turn kinda line.

I never understand why people want to chase out players when they have AA. Super easy flat imo.

It's not "chasing people out". It's called value.

4bet to 70.

We don't want him to have great implied odds on top of what will be great immediate odds. He has shown that he can get to the flop with weak hands in reraised pots, so give him another chance to do it. Also, you will cooler him when he 5bet shoves on you with QQ-KK, AKs.

If he flats your 3b, you can bet 3/4 pot on flop and 3/5 pot on turn to get all in.

You don't need to shove pre-flop. You don't need to pray for someone else to raise. Just play your hand.

If you can get 10% (15% is better) of effective stacks in pre-flop it's very easy to play an over-pair post-flop. Therefore I don't know you're focused on your plans.

10% is $45. 15% is $67.50.

If you don't want to raise then don't do this: I will bet big on flop + turn

With an SPR around 10 play your aces very cautiously post-flop.

Every posters with 100+ posts so far have gone for 4 bet 60-75, I am not going to argue considering position + IO + SPR.



After the hand all the other Vs on the table said result would have been the same had I 4bet, which prompt me to open this thread.

Yup. Money was going in no matter what if he had KK.

LOL at the V who snapped your 5 bet shove. even with KK

Disagree with this for this hand in particular. If hero 4 betted, there's a chance villain flats with KK . That QJx flop would have been a total action killer lol

Not saying if 4betting or flatting would have been better here, but villains always say things like that when they get "outplayed"