Reads: I was caught bluffing against this villain about an orbit ago. I opened AKo UTG. He was the only caller on the button. Flop came J 6 3 w/ a flush draw. I bet, he called. Turn was the 6, I bet pot, leaving a bit less than a pot sized bet left if he called. I thought 770-1010 would often lay down. He flatted. Turn was the 10 and I check/folded to a shove.

He has limped 89s from EP before.

One other loose player limps from EP, villain limps next to him. Folds to me on the button with A10 and I make it $12. Both limpers flat.

$39 in the pot, $150 effective against villain. Flop comes KQ9 and villain donks for $20. I flat. Turn is the 6 and he bets $40. Hero? Anyone raise flop?

I would just fold flop. A typical villain is not folding this board after betting into it (especially after bet flop - bet turn).

If you had the nut draw, calling flop is fine, but that 10 draw is not worth staying in here - and it is a tough board and line from villain to run a +EV bluff

Folding flop seems insane. We have the 3rd nut flush draw + a gutshot. Against KQ, we are about 50% equity....

The turn is trickier because now his range is stronger...

Fold flop here unless villain bluffs scary flops all the time and even then I would rather fold this without a better hand or the nut draw. Villain's range is wide here and he could be donking hands you have decent equity against, like 98o or a low pair, but those are probably the exceptions. It is most likely that either villain has a better flush draw or has a better hand on flop, but it isn't clear which and it could be both.

A flop raise here isn't out of the question, but only if I have a tight image and good reason to believe villains folds. This isn't a good board for bluff raises because the raise is more likely to produce a shove that hero can't call.

What kind of turn card are you even hoping for??

I don't think an ace helps you, a 10 doesn't help you, a heart may not help you. You're basically hoping for a jack?

Why do you want to bluff a sticky villain?

Never folding flop. Probably peel turn again.

fold

I think this is either a raise on the flop or a fold. Calling may be the worst option and here's why
1) We learn nothing about our opponents hand. He can have everything from an ace to 2 pair to just a dry king (kj, k10) and trying to see where he stands. If you raise you get a lot of those dry kings out and that's +EV
2) He's going to bet turn id say 60+% of time regardless. Let's say you make it 57 to go on the flop, he calls, he's gonna check to you on the turn a lot of the time. Then you can evaluate do I make a bluff on a blank or just check and get a free card. Thus your 37 dollar raise is the same as calling the turn except now you have the lead and control (which is always a major plus)

With all that said - Id probably raise on flop considering your history. You already bluffed once and he saw it so I think he's not going to put you on a bluff again... enter leveling war discussion

I call flop and turn. Sizing seems pretty weak that all your bink outs besides T's are probably good.

:grunch:

Probably want to go to $15 preflop with the two limpers and having the button. $12 isn't bad either, but based on many $1/2 table dynamics it'll still get you 4 callers more often than you want.

Fold flop. He's got you beat. Q at minimum, probably a K with a H draw, or a small H flush already. With the Ah we can peel, don't like it with the T.

Fold turn. Same reasons as the flop. You're way behind here.

Raising the flop isn't a bad idea with the NFD, but pure spew with the T.

NFDs are better to peel than weaker flushes, you got it reversed.