7pm on a Monday

V: MA Asian guy, maybe around 40 years old, playing on the tighter side. Stacks ~250 eff. He has just sat down and I have not seen him showdown thus far.

Hero raise UTG to 12 with 99
V calls in UTG +1
everyone folds

Flop (23) K27

Hero leads 15
V calls

Turn (50) K

Hero leads 25
V calls

River (100) 3

Hero? If we bet do we bet for value or as a bluff?

I don't hate the turn bet, as the extra K showing up makes him holding one less likely. Once he calls though, I am done with the hand.

If he can double float on a dry board and bluff the river, more power to him. I'm check/folding against all but the laggiest players (against whom I am likely check/calling).

I think you needed to make the decision on the turn. If you bet the turn, you have to bet that river. Otherwise if he is capable player, you check on the river, its most likely he bets with a range you can beat. If you are check/calling, its best to bet out and fold to a raise.

You never have to bet. You've gotten called twice on the driest board in history when your range includes AK. Just c/f. If he's calling you down with 3rd pair, you're going to make a lot of money off of him later.

Small blocking bet on the end. Hopefully it will look to him like a suck bet and he will just call with any of his hands.

Obviously folding to any raise.

A check just invites him to bluff (if he is so inclined) with ANY hand.

Worst case here is a guy that will go bonkers and raise a blocking bet with air. But those guys are rare!!

This board is Sahara dry and he's called twice on a paired face card board. What bluffs does he have in his range? There are no missed draws he could have.

His only possible hand that we beat is a stubborn PP, and only 4 of those (4s, 5s, 6s, and 8s) do we beat. We lose to all 9 other PPs (though some of them are also pretty unlikely here), as well as a ton of Kx combos.

We can very easily fold here and not worry about being bluffed. He only has 20 possible combos of holdings we beat, very few of those combos call twice on this board, and all of them have showdown value if he thinks we are FOS. If he has 2 combos of bluff in his river range, I'd be amazed.

Check/fold. There is nothing villain can bluff with. Well played.

Bet 30%-40% pot. V could have a 7, 22-66, 88or bluffs in his range all of which you beat and only a few combos that beat you. Checking here open us up to being bluffed with two napkins.
All combos that you beat can either call or fold in this spot.....most combos that beat you is likely to raise.....Sets and Kx
If you are raised on the river it becomes a fold


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i could see either a blocking bet or a check/decide, it's probably a check/fold though unless you have some reads on this guy.

Pre is good.
Flop is good.
Turn is good.
Now c/f.

If V has a sticky 7, then he's going to check back the river. Without history, c/c a river bet is pretty bad, IMO.

Thanks for the input guys. I appreciate the insight. I decided to bet as for value on the river, but I think it was too thin and I don't think many combos that I have beat make it to the river let alone call.

you valueown yourself because he probably calls TT-AA but will checkback TT-QQ.. tight asian eh, that's a unicorn

you get value from what, 88?

c/f is best