1/2, 6-handed, $200 deep ($175 with the relevant player here)

Preflop:
UTG/HJ straddles to $5
CO limps
I raise to $20 from BU with KdKh
Folds to CO who calls

Flop ($48): QsTs3d ($155 behind)
CO checks
I bet $35, intending to jam remaining $120 into $120 on ~any turn (not sure what I’d do on an A or spade turn — thoughts?)
He raises to $75
I don’t see how I can ever fold here with $80 left so I just jam, expecting to get called by TPGK, and really just losing to QT, 33, perhaps TT. (Would have expected a raise from QQ, AA).

Thoughts?

Yup, just gii.

Not blocking FD/J9, blocking KQ/KJ. Have outs to QT.

Pre - I'd raise to at least $25 with a straddle and call.

You are blocking KJ which isn't good since it reduces his bluff combos. You unblock spades though which is good, but query how many low stakes Vs c/r their flush draws in general. (Few.) I am inclined to discount his draws, so his range is maybe one combo of nfd, AQ, QT, 33, TT, QQ (lol yes), AA. Plug that info ppt and we're doing all right but no need to go crazy with spr this high:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

36,630 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QT3

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
KcKh	38.36%	14,052	0
AQ,As5s,QT,AA,QQ,TT,33	61.64%	22,578	0

.

I just call or fold flop. You bet quite large otf and still got raised. (Which I think is an argument for betting on the larger side, actually, so you can feel confident to let it go if V raises you big anyway.) The problem is the sizing; can't really let it go quite yet since he could be going bananas/"see where I'm at" with top pair.

I think a jam just gets called by better most of the time. I mean is he limp/calling pre and raise/calling it off with AQ - best case scenario? (I'm assuming since you didn't mention it you have no reads on this player which would help.) Also +1 to at least $25 pre.

I'm rusty due to the shutdown, but I tended to respect raises at these stakes. I would proceed with caution. Sucks not to have any info on V.

the check min raise here should be super strong, feels like 33 for sure

i feel like FD's and SD's would just jam to generate some folds,

Having said that i don't know if i could get away from the Over Pair either, it's a really annoying spot but maybe we could exploit him here for his sizing ; I'd much rather get it in vs a jam than a min click here

for those of you that don’t like downbetting or checking back flops with TPTK+ HU, this is partially the problem with betting 2/3 OTF.

Just GII. You’re laying yourself a good price.

Yup. Like we could size our flop cbet small here, and even if he checkraises us, we can see a turn card before deciding if we want to pile all of it in. Now we’ve kind of just forced our hand and we have to get in our overpair pretty marginally.


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Don't overthink this, this is a standard stack off given pot was straddled.

I like your jam, though agree you should think about what sizings could be better for the initial bet

Also $20 is a little small for attacking straddle and 1 limper, 25-40 would be much better imo.