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1/2/5: Bottom set, tough river decision 1/2/5: Bottom set, tough river decision

07-17-2022 , 07:25 AM
1/2 - 500 eff

UTG straddle 5, LAG V opens 20 MP1, LJ HJ CO and Hero on BTN with 2♦️2♠️ call.

Flop (100): 9 ♣️8❤️7♠️

Checks around

Turn (100): 2❤️

Checks to HJ who bets 30, Hero raises to 110, V now cold calls OOP, HJ folds

River (350): K❤️

V announces “all in” (375 eff) after 7-10 seconds of thinking
1/2/5: Bottom set, tough river decision Quote
07-17-2022 , 08:48 AM
If the villain is a true LAG, this is a fold. LAGs don't bet into people on the river who are showing a lot of strength with air. The problem is that extremely few 1/2 players are LAGs. LAGs struggle at 1/2 because the average rec player didn't come to the poker room to fold. They get looked up a lot, which means that hands that a tough player will fold get called by the standard 1/2 player.

Readless, I'd go with the old saying that if you didn't lose a lot of money with a set, you played it wrong.
1/2/5: Bottom set, tough river decision Quote
07-17-2022 , 10:26 AM
He has all the bigger sets (not kk) all the straights and like every flush. If you weren't behind ott (not saying it's likely, just possible) you are behind now. Even kings up c/c this river a ton.

I probably tank fold.
1/2/5: Bottom set, tough river decision Quote
07-17-2022 , 11:01 AM
Noob perspective:

5-handed and first to act, is V really going to check both flop and (especially) turn with a made straight or set? I mean, say he has JT. Maybe he checks it on the flop, but is he checking turn with a flush draw coming in? He should be very concerned about it checking through again, and also is a LAGgy player like that looking to trap on multiple streets?

He could very easily have backed into a flush. AJhh or whatever could certainly take this line, though again, is a LAG checking twice, even out of position with 4 guys behind?

On the other hand, this is a weird spot to stone-cold bluff, though if he *is* bluffing, say with QJ, Kh is a great card to do it. But, as someone else said, is he going to bluff into someone who just raised the turn? He'd have to be putting you on some sort of big draw, which doesn't make sense because he should be interpreting your raise as a value/protection bet.

Bottom line, I discount him having a straight or set, so the question is -- does he have more flushes or missed draws by the river?

Is his brief tank deciding whether to bluff or give up? Is it trying to determine sizing for value? Or Hollywooding with the nuts?

This looks a lot like trying to make it *look* like a bluff to me. I think this is a reluctant fold.
1/2/5: Bottom set, tough river decision Quote
07-17-2022 , 03:00 PM
People underbluff the river in 1/2. This is correct behavior, because most 1/2 players call down too much. Unless this player has already seen you make a couple of tough river folds, he wouldn't have reason to bluff you here. His primary semi-bluff on the turn just got there on the river. Just fold. It is precisely because most of your opponents would not fold in this case that you should fold.

One important point: Never let people know you made a tough fold. If you do, you're going to be given more and more swell opportunities to make tough river decisions. Sure, it does mean that you'll occasionally be bluffed into when you have the nuts, but how often do you really have the nuts? Top pair with a decent-but-not-top kicker is a lot more common, and you'd rather not be making a lot of tough river decisions with those. My favorite thing to say in this situation is, "You might think you're bluffing, but you're not. If I could beat a bluff, I'd probably call you." Then I shrug and throw my hand in the muck.

@AceDeuceSuited: You did say you're a noob, so I assume you'd like advice. There's no way he has QJ here that isn't hearts. That would require him to have bet out on the turn and then call a big raise with only a gutshot. I put T9 -- top pair plus open-ended -- in his range a lot more than QJ. In a tougher game than 1/2, he might have converted that hand to a bluff, but doing so in 1/2 would be a significant leak, so he probably didn't.

Last edited by Zag24; 07-17-2022 at 03:01 PM. Reason: Punctuation
1/2/5: Bottom set, tough river decision Quote
07-17-2022 , 03:30 PM
this is a tough spot because I play in games where someone with two pair will be doing this and then other games where its gonna be A5hh A6hh J9hh every time. it feels like he has way more value hands here versus bluffs. not being results orientated but on these types of broads multi way I play these hands like plo and just pot control to get to showdown. ap I would nit fold and find a better spot.
1/2/5: Bottom set, tough river decision Quote
07-17-2022 , 10:08 PM
We folded.

Villain shows Q♠️T♣️.
1/2/5: Bottom set, tough river decision Quote

      
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