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1/2/5 AA OOP in wet multiway pot 1/2/5 AA OOP in wet multiway pot

12-06-2011 , 04:55 PM
The game is playing super deep. I'm sitting with $1500, average stack at table is closer to $2k.

Table is loose passive.

Hero is in BB. Hero has a TAG image. Me opening in the SB/BB screams AQ+,QQ+.

SB is super loose. calls gutshots, overs, ect.

UTG is loose. chases draws too much. Can't let go of top pair

CO is loose, but not crazy. Won't call a 3/4psb with a gutshot. Overvalues TPTK, overvalues overpairs. CO is passive. I c/r'ed him with a OESD on the flop and he called with TPTK IP and checked behind a blank turn.

Pre-flop:

UTG limps (any suited+), 2 limpers in MP (any suited+), CO limps(ATC), SB completes, Hero raises to $50 AdAc, BB calls, UTG calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop ($250)

Jc 4s 6s

SB checks, Hero bets $250, UTG snap calls, CO calls, SB calls

Turn ($1250)

10d

SB checks, hero? I decide to check, UTG checks, CO bets $600, SB calls, hero ?
1/2/5 AA OOP in wet multiway pot Quote
12-06-2011 , 11:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmckendry
The game is playing super deep. I'm sitting with $1500, average stack at table is closer to $2k.
Just curious, how is this even possible? What is the average buyin? That's pretty insane.

I don't play super deep, but here are my thoughts:

Problem 1) $50 raise sets up a tough spot. 1 call sets up an SPR of 15, 2 calls sets up SPR of 10.

SPR is around 6, which is sick 5 handed, but realize this is the same as raising to $10 with AA $300 deep and getting 5 callers.

This puts you in a difficult spot vs randoms that overvalue TP hands etc. This is especially true if there are bankroll considerations that make you really not want to lose $1500.

If you're pretty sure you're going to get lots of calls no matter what you raise, you should either raise even more (I know $50 is absurd, but if they're calling it you should raise an amount that won't get 4 calls), or raise LESS.

Why is raising less good? Because you can easily get away from the hand postflop without being put to difficult decisions for your stack.

Problem 2) Potting the flop to c/f the turn is a bad play here. Again, it's sick to get 4 calls, but if you're not going to stack here just bet like $125 or $150.

I could even argue for a check here to see what happens IF YOU'RE NOT COMFORTABLE WITH STACKING.

If they're honestly stacking $1500 with AJ here, then I guess it changes things, but you have to be prepared to lose $1500.
1/2/5 AA OOP in wet multiway pot Quote
12-07-2011 , 01:29 AM
This game isn't in the US. It's in Asia. Min buyin was $1000, no max.
1/2/5 AA OOP in wet multiway pot Quote
12-07-2011 , 01:43 AM
Might as well pot control the flop, or take a big stab like you did on the flop and pretty much give up on the turn as played.

AA is nothing in this game, and OOP and multi-way, I really don't care much for it.
1/2/5 AA OOP in wet multiway pot Quote
12-07-2011 , 03:46 AM
Yeah this sucks, How surprised were you that you got 4 callers preflop?

I think that you have to raise a lot more OOP with AA to not get owned here. I would make it at least $75. As played, I think that you have to fold the turn. Your hand is just not doing well against two opponents and you have UTG to act still(who snapped called the flop).
1/2/5 AA OOP in wet multiway pot Quote
12-07-2011 , 04:17 AM
What a **** spot. I mean, what turn cards are we actually continuing on anyways, 4x/A?
1/2/5 AA OOP in wet multiway pot Quote
12-07-2011 , 05:03 AM
4 callers pre was lol. I actually verbally said 'what the ****?' after raising 10x and getting snap called pre in 4 places.

I think the best way about solving this hand is a long process of analysing likely holdings, combinations, then finding EV. I'll do a brief analysis.. anyone that wants to build or add to my work is welcome;

Assumptions;
Flop calling ranges;
UTG is on a Fd or has J10-AJ,
CO has J9s,J10-AJ, FD, 50% 44, 66.
SB has gutshot, OESD, FD, Jx and 6Q+, 50% 2p/set.

So on the turn if we go allin;
UTG is folding JQ-JK, calling AJ/J10, any FD.
CO is folding J9, JQ-AJ, FD. calls 10sXs, J10, 44, 66
SB is folding 5q-a5, gutshots, Jq-JK. calling 2p, set, FD, AJ if folded to. Calling OESD if caller in front.

UTG folds 24 combos, calls 18 combos where we have ~15%, calls ~40 combos where we are 80% favorites.

CO folds 27 combos, CO calls 15 combos where we are ~15%.

SB is folding ~150 combos, calls 50 where we are ~35%.

The more I think about it, maybe its a shove.

Edit: Something else that is relevant, if UTG is on a FD of has JQ/JK it makes it ~20% less likely the another player is on a FD or has JQ/JK. For example, if UTG calls with a FD, COs range just became more weighted towards 2p/sets. Its like instead of having sets/2p 34% of the time, its 45% now.

Last edited by tmckendry; 12-07-2011 at 05:08 AM. Reason: more info
1/2/5 AA OOP in wet multiway pot Quote
12-07-2011 , 11:59 AM
Above analysis is how most "thinking" players level themselves into a losing call.

A better analysis would be to provide past HH on player tendencies in similar spots, but even then, I am certain that this is a fold.
1/2/5 AA OOP in wet multiway pot Quote
12-07-2011 , 12:24 PM
Grunch

Ok so i hate the way you played this post flop. I really dont see any reason for the pot sized flop bet. This basically turns your hand face up. I think a bet of $180 would have been perfect to get value from all Jacks and draws while at the same time keeping your range a little wider than, "wow this guy doesnt want to see a turn." The turn is a pretty standard b/f for value and there are no valid arguments against. With the pot multiway and bloated as much as it is you would have heard from sets on the flop imo.
1/2/5 AA OOP in wet multiway pot Quote
12-07-2011 , 12:39 PM
I'd have bet $200 on the flop, I'm actually OK with 250 given the # of opponents and their calling tendencies, this is for value.

I am absolutely betting the turn again. Given stacks and reads I think I just ship it. Sucks if someone has a set, though I would have expected them to raise the flop given the number of players. If someone has JT for some reason, that's just a cold deck, but we have 8 outs.
1/2/5 AA OOP in wet multiway pot Quote

      
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