Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
The turn bet is awful. Check the river.
Is this because you think UTG2 is going to have AA/QQ/TT/KJ fairly often?
OP has up to 15 outs when villains hold hands like J
J
and A
5
, and should be able rep KQ/QJ fairly credibly given the action. Sure, you can say that this is bloating the pot and it will get him into some weird spots since he hits a straight on the river and can still can be up against 19 combos of higher straights/boats/quads. But that doesn't happen every time. Sometimes we get two better hands to fold and take down $150 with nothing.
I understand that you can make a case against the turn bet, but to say it's awful would imply that it has a strongly negative EV. I really doubt that the EV of the turn bet is going to be -95 when we combine fold equity with our hand equity, unless we think UTG2 is trapping with a boat or quads on the turn a very high percentage of the time.