Game is 1 2 2, 5 bring in. Table has been mostly weak-tight, though occasional spastic bouts of crazy lagginess (like 4-way all-ins preflop with QQ, KQ, A7 and 55...with the 55 winning).

Hero has ~ 400, villain covers. Villain is more loose-passive and mostly calls with hands, though is capable of bluffing, and has made a few pretty good (for live) laydowns that hero can see. Otherwise, nothing terribly special, seems like an ok, but not strong player.

Hero has 88 OTB

2 limpers, hero raises to 20, folds to villain in MP who calls.

KK5

Villain checks, hero decides to check.

8

Villain checks, hero bets 45, villain calls.

5

Villain leads for 100.


Is this a call? Is raising too thin? Is folding too weak? We are getting ~ 2.3:1 to call, so we need villain to not have a K a little less than 50% of the time, right?

Your odds calculation is wrong, 2.3:1 means the break-even point is exactly 30%.

I'm calling here against most villains I think. Sure, he might have a K but he could easily have 54, 56 ,57, 5A, 99, 66, 77 maybe even A high or complete air.

EDIT: Basically, if villain is capable of bluffing as you said, you have to call here.

why are u raising 20 if your not gonna c-bet this flop

Agreed. Why no C-bet after raising to $20 PF? I'm sure you had your reasons, but if you did C-bet, then filling on the turn makes this hand so easy to play.

I usually c-bet this one, but at the time I was unsure if I was way behind or a little ahead. Paired boards are usually good ones to bluff/cbet anyways, but for some reason against this particular villain I opted to check behind.

As played, call. You're probably good often enough. Raising is just burning money.

I agree with everyone else that you should have bet that flop.