I've been playing pretty tight.

Villian folded to one of my flop raises on a Ax6s7s board where I had As5s when he cbet.

Villian (~$700)
Hero (~$550)

Hero has: T 2

Preflop:

EP calls, MP calls, Villian calls, I call because I killed it.

Flop (~$40):

Q 6 2

Checked around to me, I bet $20 to try to take it down, Villain calls.

Turn (~$80):

8

Villian bets $35, Hero raises to $115?

My thinking is there's no way his hand can stand a turn raise, because if he had a Q he would have lead the flop because it's a limped pot and his turn bet is pretty small relative to the pot (less than half pot)

I think its spewy. The turn lead is going to be 2 pair quite often, either 86 or Q8 (I wouldn't assume he bets a bad Q on the flop), and most people don't like folding 2 pair.

Hero raises: EV = $115*%Vfolds - $115*%Vraises + (implied odds at river - reverse implied odds at river with effective stacks at river $310 and a pot of $410)*%Vcalls.

What is your plan if he just calls? I assume you will fold to a big donk bet on the river, but push if he calls the turn and checks the river?

Villain's range for completing the small blind that hit this flop and/or turn enough to take his line: AQ (not everyone raises the SB with this hand), KQ, Q8o+, Q2s+, 62s, 68x, 66, 22, 3s4s, 4s5s, As2s, other odd spade draws, complete air, some unusual air or pair less than top pair with no draw (although air and low 1-pairs are less likely).

The spade draws probably call, as do the pairs + straight draws. Two pairs call. Sets and top pair + back door flush draw might raise or might just call. The upper end of the top pair range might call or fold depending on the player - I've seen many live players in a spot like this go way too far with top pair weak kicker. The fact that you are playing tight might be lost on a curious calling station who thinks that everyone is bluffing him all the time. The very weak top pair hands might fold. The unusual air, 1-pairs lower than top pair with no draw, and the weakest draws (i.e. a gutshot only) will fold.

I haven't worked out all the combinations, but lets just guess that he raises 20%, calls 30%, and folds 50%.

EV = $115*.5 - $115*.2 + (implied odds at river - reverse implied odds at river with effective stacks at river $310 and a pot of $410)*.3

= +$34.5 + (implied odds at river - reverse implied odds at river with effective stacks at river $310 and a pot of $410)*.3.

Personally, I don't think going for the ~+$35 EV on the turn when he only raises or folds is worth the risk of seeing the river about 30% of the time with very little show down value, and less than a pot-sized bet left in effective stacks.

I suppose you could play with the numbers to make this appear more positive EV, and I supposed you could argue that even $1 +EV is worth the risk of your stack on the river since in the "long run" you will still make money. But my preference would be to fold on the turn to the donk bet instead of raise (or call) because there are just too few hands in a live session to fight this hard for so little money.

only attempting this if i am one hundred percent sure that this opponent typically b/f with his marginal hands. so pretty much one of those opponents that likes to "see where they are at" in a hand, and when raised will typically muck in a second.

if i'm not sure of that then this is more spew bc the whole point is that your opponents don't fold often enough, so no reason to run random bluffs

what are you trying to rep with that raise?

Since its a limped pot and I bet the pot, I'm trying to rep two pair on the turn. If he flats the raise, I'm done with the hand unless a T or a 2 non spade comes.

He did seem like the kind of person who would bet fold, and his turn bet very much felt like a weak feeler bet by a marginal hand.