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1/1 Preflop number crunching spot 1/1 Preflop number crunching spot

12-25-2014 , 11:11 AM
So this was an interesting hand from a purely theory point of view, IMO. Detailed player reads are not hugely important other than for assigning some rough ranges but here goes:

V1 is definitely a losing player but the slow kind- passive preflop but doesn't chase too hard postflop of bluff off in bad spots. Makes a lot of blocking bets. He's been slowly leaking chips all night and is down to £25 when the hand starts.

V2 is probably a small loser, possibly a small winner- knows the game and some key concepts but isn't the most analytical thinker. Has stacked off with TPTK on a Q high board after a 3bet preflop, running into an overpair he expected to see. Since then, he's had a rebuy and a double up so is sitting at £300

Hero has a tight (been forced to fold to most 3bets), winning but possibly over-aggressive image (I found some good spots to GII with TPTK vs gambly villains). Starts the hand with £400

Hero is UTG with A K
Hero raises £5
V1 (UTG+1) moves all-in for £25
folds to V2 in CO, who thinks for a bit then raises to £45
folds to Hero....

So, my thoughts here are as follows:

1) Is there a case for calling and seeing a flop? My first instinct is no for the following reason: If we have good equity against V2, we want to see all 5 community cards and therefore should shove so we don't have to check/fold a bunch of flops where we don't pair up.
(I have no solid justification for this, just seems like a good way to avoid lots of bad situations, especially OOP.)

2) Can we eliminate AA and KK from V2's range because he seems to be ISO-ing the weaker player, knowing I open a strong range from UTG?

3) What range are we putting V1 on, knowing he can be getting bored and wanting to spin off his last £25 and double up or go home?

4) Do we need to consider the likelihood we're up against two big cards and a pair and that we will be in worse shape against the pair than usual as a result (dead cards)?

I'll post my calculations on this later but wanted to see how others approach it- happy stoving.
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12-25-2014 , 11:26 AM
Cold 4bets from generic LLSNL villains are very AA/KK heavy. There's nothing about this situation to suggest it's different, so yeah, your assumptions are way off and this is pretty easy fold.
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12-25-2014 , 11:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian O'Nolan
Cold 4bets from generic LLSNL villains are very AA/KK heavy. There's nothing about this situation to suggest it's different, so yeah, your assumptions are way off and this is pretty easy fold.
If he has KK or AA, wouldn't he call, expecting me to reraise a lot (given my narrow UTG opening range, that smashes V1's range)?

Do you think he flats AQ or TT-QQ here?

Do you think he fold AJs or 99, knowing he smashes V1's range too?

(I'm not trying to give you a hard time with these questions, I'm just pretty sure you come to different answers than me and I'd like to understand a bit about why)
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12-25-2014 , 11:36 AM
1. Shoving will get called by AA/KK and probably get folds from other hands. Plus, it's a massive overbet.

2. Definitely cannot eliminate AA/KK from his range.

3. V1's range is pretty much irrelevant at this point. There's 25 Euros of dead money in the pot. We crush V1's range. We're worried about V2.

4. This is completely villain dependent. If you think V2 is betting light here, then go ahead and re-raise. Most likely, he's not. You can fold and get a better read on V2 when he shows his cards. He's showing up with AA/KK the vast majority of the time here.....at least in America that would be the case.
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12-25-2014 , 11:39 AM
What country are you in? I'm starting to become aware of differences in style between English players, German players, and players from Switzerland.
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12-25-2014 , 11:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse123
What country are you in? I'm starting to become aware of differences in style between English players, German players, and players from Switzerland.
Reading, England, UK (hence the Sterling bets haha)
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12-25-2014 , 11:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse123
1. Shoving will get called by AA/KK and probably get folds from other hands. Plus, it's a massive overbet.
I agree, it is pretty huge but if we 5bet, how much can we make it? Standard 3x the 4bet makes it £135, which basically commits us to a shove from V2, so we might as well put it in ourselves and maybe let him think we're ISO-ing dead money

Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse123
2. Definitely cannot eliminate AA/KK from his range.
Obviously not altogether, but doesn't he flat them sometimes for reasons discussed above?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse123
3. V1's range is pretty much irrelevant at this point. There's 25 Euros of dead money in the pot. We crush V1's range. We're worried about V2.
Agree, but if you're doing a complete analysis, you need to know your equity against V1

Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse123
4. This is completely villain dependent. If you think V2 is betting light here, then go ahead and re-raise. Most likely, he's not. You can fold and get a better read on V2 when he shows his cards. He's showing up with AA/KK the vast majority of the time here.....at least in America that would be the case.
As I asked above, do we think he's folding or flatting with all other similarly strong hands?
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12-25-2014 , 12:12 PM
I think he could have TT+/AQ+ or something also and just trying to isolate the dead money for himself. If I had AA/KK I would be more likely to flat and try to get some other callers rather than try to iso but obviously wouldn't be surprising if had QQ+ here
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12-25-2014 , 12:29 PM
As v id call to look strong...
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12-25-2014 , 05:17 PM
I happily toss the cards in the middle and wouldn't think too hard about it. Against any reasonable range we're somewhere between the dog end of a 60/40 and a coinflip, and Shorty could very well have 1 or more of our outs.
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12-25-2014 , 05:33 PM
If we think that shorty has one of our outs, that means that the number of AA/KK combos that V2 can have it 33% less just fyi.
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12-25-2014 , 05:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bulls_horn
I happily toss the cards in the middle and wouldn't think too hard about it. Against any reasonable range we're somewhere between the dog end of a 60/40 and a coinflip, and Shorty could very well have 1 or more of our outs.
In all honesty... that's exactly what I figured and did at the time. But the hands that turned up made me reconsider the ranges involved and it seems like shoving isn't such an awful option.

V1 had Ah3h (yeh, figures, whatever)
V2 had JJ.... presumably he was ISO-ing V1's range cos that is not a value 4bet vs my range...?
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12-25-2014 , 07:30 PM
Good eyes guys yea he does have our out.
Guy min raises to look strong lol nice.
Do we think he figures 2+2 that shorty may have one of our outs? maybe not
Or hed of possibly raised a little bigger
Is $5 tables and our standard open?
Does he want us to fold? If so, holding which hands? 10+ ak?
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12-25-2014 , 07:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by universalpeace
Good eyes guys yea he does have our out.
Guy min raises to look strong lol nice.
Do we think he figures 2+2 that shorty may have one of our outs? maybe not
Or hed of possibly raised a little bigger
Is $5 tables and our standard open?
Does he want us to fold? If so, holding which hands? 10+ ak?
£5 is a fairly standard open- bigger doesn't look that fishy tbh.

If he thinks we fold a lot, then he's beating V1's range with 88 and KQ probably... so could be as wide as that tbh
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12-25-2014 , 10:10 PM
I mean I don't hate a flat but maybe that's a big leak of mine. Its an awfully strong hand, and you are still really deep after the flop, mostly. SPr is kinda ****ed but your flat should look really strong
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12-26-2014 , 04:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch
If we think that shorty has one of our outs, that means that the number of AA/KK combos that V2 can have it 33% less just fyi.
Limiting V2 to just KK,AA is a mistake. He could easily make the same move with TT+, and we're in sorry shape against that whole range, especially if Shorty has one of our outs.

As sexy as AKs is, it's still only ace-high. Shoving our stack in the middle pre with it might be fine in a tourney where everybody's short-stacked, but doing it in a deep-stacked cash game over a 3! is just spew.
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