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<img .16/<img .33 4 handed - Disguised speculative hand hits flop, but is put to a hard decision <img .16/<img .33 4 handed - Disguised speculative hand hits flop, but is put to a hard decision

05-17-2011 , 07:25 PM
Prehand Description

Blinds:The reason for the strange blinds is that it is in Swedish crowns, translated to dollars. I will write the rest of the post using chip units (1 chip unit=$0.16). Thus, blinds are 1/2 chip units.

Game:The players are a regular game group with about 40h of total play over 10 sessions. It has been a few months since the last session.

Villain: Has a good grasp of the game. A bit on the loose side and has been known to make some emotional rather than rational moves. He started the session winning some, and then got down to a short stack before adding up with another buy-in and won up the second largest stack on the table.

Hero: Has a general loose image (probably the loosest at the table), but has some respect due to a good win rate over several sessions. Hero started this session bleeding away one buy-in using the tactic of going too far with bad hands and then fold. After adding a second buy-in Hero found his game (and a good run of cards) and gathered a large stack.

With the game being 4 handed, the play has been a bit looser that usual, with even a tight solid player playing rather speculative hands.

This hand is from the end of the session, putting all the sessions' winnings on one decision...

1/2 ($0.16/$0.33) 4 handed home cash game

UTG (200)
BTN Hero (600)
SB Villain (450)
BB (150)

Hero is dealt 23

UTG calls, Hero raises to 10, Villain re-raises to 31, 2 folds, Hero calls 31

Standard raise so far has been 3-4 BB. With one limper in front 5BB is high, but in the standard range. Re-raises has not been common. Hero has been winning and tries to mix it up by playing a speculative hand in position. The move punishing the limper with a steal-attempt was more motivated by "implicit odds"-hand waiving thinking that if the bet was called the hand would be disguised.

When Villain re-raises Hero puts him on TT+ with emphasis on the higher pairs. Since Villain has a very large stack Hero mumbles "implicit odds" to himself and calls. Hero thinks he has a good read on Villains hand, at least putting him on high cards meaning that a low card flop will miss his hand. If anything dangerous comes on the flop, the hand is over.

Question: This play from Hero is probably -EV?

Flop (67) 2 3 8

Villain checks, Hero bets 50, Villains goes all-in for 400, Hero?
<img .16/<img .33 4 handed - Disguised speculative hand hits flop, but is put to a hard decision Quote
05-17-2011 , 07:49 PM
Good luck dodging all the outs he has at this point.
<img .16/<img .33 4 handed - Disguised speculative hand hits flop, but is put to a hard decision Quote
05-17-2011 , 08:00 PM
lol snap call
<img .16/<img .33 4 handed - Disguised speculative hand hits flop, but is put to a hard decision Quote
05-17-2011 , 08:01 PM
you dont call 3bets with 3 high if you do not intend on getting all in on the flop when you flop 2 pair when you're 100 bbs effective.
<img .16/<img .33 4 handed - Disguised speculative hand hits flop, but is put to a hard decision Quote
05-17-2011 , 08:02 PM
4 handed, I don't mind the steal attempt pf. That said, once raised, you have a horrible hand to call with. I'd primarily fold, but if you think the villain is raising you light and thinks a 4bet would have to be the nuts, raising isn't a bad play.

On the flop, call. Is AK really trying to blast you off your hand? Against a FD and OP, you're a 54% favorite.
<img .16/<img .33 4 handed - Disguised speculative hand hits flop, but is put to a hard decision Quote
05-18-2011 , 01:16 AM
I knew that the pre-flop play probably wasn't something I should make a habit, but still wonder if (maximum possible) implied odds of 1:20 could motivate the action. My understanding was that with deepstacked NLH this is the kind of situation a loose player must exploit?

On the flop, I reasoned like ADHDeezNUTZ says: If I don't call here what flop could I possibly have been waiting for? Possibly one without the flush possibility, but then maybe not.
I sense a very strong hand that really doesn't want me to draw. I don't think he has the flush (and AKh is the only made flush hand that fits pre-flop actions).
Thinking high pair (with emphasis on higher pairs even more than I was thinking pre-flop) I was really only worried that one of them was a heart giving him too many outs for the call to be +EV. I focused my analysis on: How probable is it that one of his pair cards is a heart? Can I reduce that probablity for the call to make sense?

I called after a few moments pondering. I reasoned that if he had a heart he wouldn't be so afraid of the situation to go all-in at this point. I mentally took this argument and made it reduce the "has one heart"-probablity enough to make the call at least a little +EV. I admit that the irrational "i hit my sneaky hand and i must play it" maybe was a factor, but most of it was the reasoning above.
<img .16/<img .33 4 handed - Disguised speculative hand hits flop, but is put to a hard decision Quote
05-18-2011 , 01:32 AM
You can't make preflop plays like this, hit the flop and then not call for 100bb.
If he has AKhh or some other flopped flush, well you deserve what you get for calling 3bets oop with 3-high.

Boat up on the turn, ldo.
<img .16/<img .33 4 handed - Disguised speculative hand hits flop, but is put to a hard decision Quote
05-18-2011 , 01:48 AM
Beat your self up later but now call and be happy you have a shot. You decided to take one don't give up now. He probably has a lone A, K, or Q of hearts to go along with a a pair although he could think you are drawing and have an overpair with no heart as well. Wouldn't be surprised either way.
<img .16/<img .33 4 handed - Disguised speculative hand hits flop, but is put to a hard decision Quote

      
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