Prehand Description
Blinds:The reason for the strange blinds is that it is in Swedish crowns, translated to dollars. I will write the rest of the post using chip units (1 chip unit=$0.16). Thus, blinds are 1/2 chip units.
Game:The players are a regular game group with about 40h of total play over 10 sessions. It has been a few months since the last session.
Villain: Has a good grasp of the game. A bit on the loose side and has been known to make some emotional rather than rational moves. He started the session winning some, and then got down to a short stack before adding up with another buy-in and won up the second largest stack on the table.
Hero: Has a general loose image (probably the loosest at the table), but has some respect due to a good win rate over several sessions. Hero started this session bleeding away one buy-in using the tactic of going too far with bad hands and then fold. After adding a second buy-in Hero found his game (and a good run of cards) and gathered a large stack.
With the game being 4 handed, the play has been a bit looser that usual, with even a tight solid player playing rather speculative hands.
This hand is from the end of the session, putting all the sessions' winnings on one decision...
1/2 ($0.16/$0.33) 4 handed home cash game
UTG (200)
BTN Hero (600)
SB Villain (450)
BB (150)
Hero is dealt 2
3
UTG calls, Hero raises to 10, Villain re-raises to 31, 2 folds, Hero calls 31
Standard raise so far has been 3-4 BB. With one limper in front 5BB is high, but in the standard range. Re-raises has not been common. Hero has been winning and tries to mix it up by playing a speculative hand in position. The move punishing the limper with a steal-attempt was more motivated by "implicit odds"-hand waiving thinking that if the bet was called the hand would be disguised.
When Villain re-raises Hero puts him on TT+ with emphasis on the higher pairs. Since Villain has a very large stack Hero mumbles "implicit odds" to himself and calls. Hero thinks he has a good read on Villains hand, at least putting him on high cards meaning that a low card flop will miss his hand. If anything dangerous comes on the flop, the hand is over.
Question: This play from Hero is probably -EV?
Flop (67) 2
3
8
Villain checks, Hero bets 50, Villains goes all-in for 400, Hero?