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Your read? Your read?

05-13-2013 , 10:32 PM
Hero just sat down and folded two hands. In the first of those hands Villain called along while two increDIBLY slow villains worked each other all-in, one with top two and one with a set. Seriously like a twelve-minute hand. Villain, a youngish shaved-head guy with a big stack, frankly acknowledged having an open-ender in EMP with 79o.

Hero has 200, Villain covers with at least 750.

Hero has AQo UTG+1, makes it 13. Villain next to act spends zero time thinking, insta-calls. Table folds except for SB.

Flop T44 rainbow. Check, hero cbets 20. After a moment Villain makes it 70. SB folds.

Hero?
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05-13-2013 , 10:33 PM
Pot is 41 on flop obvy.
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05-13-2013 , 10:38 PM
Fold. What can u rep? Ur on a 6 outer at best and if you don't hit the turn you can't call another bet. A call here is just hoping to get lucky and he's got position ott. Doesn't really matter what he has IMO

Plus no reads yet
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05-13-2013 , 10:41 PM
Your half pot bet looks like a whiffed c-bet. This is bad.
Bet at least 30 on the flop or just c/f.
V has most likely put you on a hand like the one you have. He is probably raising with a PP and sometimes a T. As far as live reads go a PP 55-99 makes so much sense with his snap call preflop. Sometimes he does it with hands you beat, but he never calls if you shove and can bluff at his desire on the turn if you call.
Folding here is completely standard.
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05-13-2013 , 10:47 PM
"he never calls if you shove"

do you think I should shove?
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05-13-2013 , 10:47 PM
Yea, I'm def jamming this. Then when villain snap calls with J9o i remind myself 1/2 villains can't fold and they overvalue tpnk.
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05-13-2013 , 10:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia
Yea, I'm def jamming this. Then when villain snap calls with J9o i remind myself 1/2 villains can't fold and they overvalue tpnk.
You mean T9o. But yeah.
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05-13-2013 , 10:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyVee
"he never calls if you shove"

do you think I should shove?
I mean you can't play your hand for value because he never calls with what you beat, and your bluffs won't work very often as you can only rep a high PP or ATs,
Typically V's don't have air that often here so you should fold.

I think c/raise is good for this flop, much rather call a 3-bet jam than 3-bet jam with this hand. But when V has just sat down I'd probably just b/f.
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05-13-2013 , 10:52 PM
*grunch*

V has just shown himself to have silly wide calling range pre and to play draws passively. I fold here and am pretty confident about it. Yes, a lot of his range is PPs <10, but we have zero indication that he'll ever fold them, and there are a lot of 4s and Ts in his range too, that are pretty much never folding for this type of V.
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05-13-2013 , 11:00 PM
"But when V has just sat down I'd probably just b/f."

I'm the one that just sat down.
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05-13-2013 , 11:07 PM
Grunch

Just fold... Doesn't matter what he's got really. At this point you have no read and if he's got what he's repping (4x) then you are basically drawing dead. Some players will raise here with Tx, others with hands like 55-99, all of these hands have you beat. Start to observe this guy so that you can get a better idea of how he plays. I don't see any reason to call off 100bb's with ace high the third hand at the table.
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05-13-2013 , 11:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThaNEWPr0fess0r
Grunch

Just fold... Doesn't matter what he's got really. At this point you have no read and if he's got what he's repping (4x) then you are basically drawing dead. Some players will raise here with Tx, others with hands like 55-99, all of these hands have you beat. Start to observe this guy so that you can get a better idea of how he plays. I don't see any reason to call off 100bb's with ace high the third hand at the table.
Calling was not an option
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05-13-2013 , 11:10 PM
Seriously though even if I was like 100000% sure this guy had 66 right now, I'm still folding... Not trying to bluff anyone off of anything until I know they can fold.
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05-13-2013 , 11:12 PM
THIS!!!!! ^^^
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05-13-2013 , 11:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyVee
Calling was not an option
Oh yeah? Why not? If I'm continuing with this hand ever, it is with the assumption that AQ high is the best hand most of the time. Hypothetically, If I did have an over pair here and decided to continue, it would be by calling, not 3betting. Under the logic that 3bet shipping sometimes folds out Tx, and always folds out his bluffs.
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05-13-2013 , 11:27 PM
Yes I meant T9o.

We have a decent amount of equity here people. We have two overs on a paired board. If villain calls a jam with 55-99 here he is making a mistake.

Don't see a lot of 4s in his range.

And if he is going to pop me with a ***ing pair of tens, I'm going to make him pay the ultimate price.

But, then again, we need to remined ourselves why 1/2 is profitable. And that's bc to a lot of villain's T9 is the mortal nuts here, your hand be dammed.
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05-13-2013 , 11:31 PM
Decent amount? We have 25% if he has a pair, and are practically dead to a 4.

Make him pay the price and watch him snap it off. But we can take pride that it was a mistake against our range, right?
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05-13-2013 , 11:32 PM
FWIW it's Friday at 5:15 pm. V seems quite competent overall, esp. since his stack when I sat down was over 4x the max buyin.
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05-13-2013 , 11:50 PM
Quote:
V seems quite competent overall
Quote:
Villain called along while two increDIBLY slow villains worked each other all-in, one with top two and one with a set. Villain frankly acknowledged having an open-ender in EMP with 79o.
Umm...
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05-14-2013 , 03:05 AM
cbet needs to be larger. avoids inducing any sort of play that is attacking weakness, while increasing your fe against a certain range of smaller pps.

ap, with no more info, just fold. shipping to try and rep an over pair is risky bizzniz at these stakes.
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05-14-2013 , 07:33 AM
Villain had excellent implied odds on his draw in the first hand and saw the river relatively cheaply considering the size of the final pot. Nothing incompetent really.

Is it too soon for results? All points well taken so far but still no reads in the ballpark.
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05-14-2013 , 07:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Decent amount? We have 25% if he has a pair, and are practically dead to a 4.

Make him pay the price and watch him snap it off. But we can take pride that it was a mistake against our range, right?
it is profitable then, isn´t it? i like a jam, although we don´t have a read he can fold yet, we also don´t have a read he is a donk who is gonna stack off with 55-99, right? most of the time i see this play from unknowns, it is exactly 55-99, Tx, maybe even 22, 33, to "take it down as long as i´m ahead". usually they raise/fold. also we are new to the table, even if we get called, we can
1) get there
2) get a nice image of a donk who you better shouldnt bluff.
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05-14-2013 , 08:27 AM
Hero 3-betting all-in otf is betting $117 into $181-rake.
You would be giving villain roughly 2.5:1 on a call though a large portion of his range here is drawing very slim vs. an overpair.

How do you suppose your FE is doing this vs. calling and donk jamming the turn?

I know this is against an unknown. You are also unknown.
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05-14-2013 , 08:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TripleH68
How do you suppose your FE is [3-bet-jamming] vs. calling and donk jamming the turn?.
It never occurred to me donkjam the turn. I would think this would have significantly LESS fold equity, as a less credible representation of an overpair. I mean, if I knew the turn would be a K I might be in favor of this, but I know no such thing. I think calling to see the turn is MASSIVELY -EV.

But maybe that was your point too.
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05-14-2013 , 09:03 AM
Quote:
it is profitable then, isn´t it?
Except that we know that our range is not the range we're representing. Our range is exactly one hand. Just because V doesn't know that and therefore theoretically shouldn't call does not make this play actually profitable.
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