$200NL 9 handed

Effective stacks 150BB
UTG VIL Raises to $10
1 fold to Hero in MP w A Q Calls
Several other callers to flop

Flop Q 4 2 Pot ~$50
Checks to Vil who bets $10
Hero Raises to $35
Folds back to Vil who raises to $80
How do you proceed??

Read - Vil is fairly nitty and certainly positionally aware. I'm definitely putting most his range as AA-QQ,AKhh, AQhh,AJhh,KQhh... discounting hands like QJhh,QThh,44,22 because of him not often playing them UTG for a raise. I would say that his pure bluff% (JJ-55,AhKx and such) is probably in the less than 5% range.

His perception of me roughly is probably that I have QT+ 60%,Draws 30%, Random steals w equity (63,A3,A5, maybe KhJx stuff) 10%

Would villain really bet $10 into $50 on this flop w/ AA/KK/AQ/sets? If I'm raising(and I'm not always raising here), I'm prob raising bigger on the flop, say 50-70. As played, I'm calling and reevaluating turn.

What do you say he can't have 44-22 because he wouldn't play them in early position but yet you say he has 55 as a bluff? If he's playing 55 surely he is playing 44,22. Also if he is so nitty as you claim how are you even giving him a bluff range? Nitty tight players don't 3bet bluff on the flop.

Honestly I 3 bet this preflop. Also I probably would rarely raise the flop because it's one of those spots where we probably blow him off of all the hands we beat and he calls/raises with everything that beats us. What was your intention of raising the flop? What hands are you trying to get value from? According to you he has a tight range so we really shouldn't be ahead of much of his range (according to your reads) so basically we are turning our hand into a bluff.

I probably just fold to his 3bet on the flop as played.

Nitty positionally aware villain open from EP? I fold.

Why raise the flop? Unless you wanted to play for stacks. He only continues with such a narrow range, I think.

Based on your read and range of V it's a fold. Ever seen him make such a small cbet before?

Facing a 1/5 pot cbet with active players behind w/ TPTK on a two flush board, I'm always raising. I like your size too, for this very reason. It's easy to get away from.

As played I'd probably fold.

Just curious but if that is your read on Villian, why call? If that's your read, I'd fold pre or 3bet fold.

This the exact scenario to go broke on. His over pair, vs your TPTK. Unless you flop the nuts, your going to miss the flop completely 2/3 the time, and when do you hit tptk, you could be still behind.
If you hit your Ace, you worry about AK, or V has KK or QQ, your unlikely to get more money out if an Ace hits.

Folding preflop.

+1

Don't like the flat pre. Either fold or 3bet. As played, call flop and evaluate turn. Probably calling shove as played.

I flatted flop. J turn, he open shoves... I folded

OP thinks his range is: AA-QQ,AKhh, AQhh,AJhh,KQhh

So there's 18 combos(C) that crush us, 3 we beat, and 1 we tie.
Simply based on your perceived range for his flop 3bet we should fold.

I generally think people's ranges are wider than we perceive them, but if you're confident that's his range, than this is a must fold.

I missed his $10 bet into $50. Competent players doing this usually means super ****ing nuts. Noobs who do this usually have a weak hand and think they should cbet but don't really have the courage to do it properly.

*edit*

What does open shove mean? He flips his cards face up and shoves? I thought "opening" was used only in the context of preflop action.

I always say open shove when the first person to act shoves into the field on a given street, or I suppose also preflop when the action folds to a player and they shove.

I could be wrong, I like the way it sounds though

I can't remember the last time I saw a small bet/3B line from a non-maniac on the flop without a set or better to be honest.

The first thing I thought of when I read the Villain cbet $10 was that he could be strong here. Based on your description, he doesn't seem like a super weak player. So when an UTG raise from a positionally aware opponent only cbets the same amount he raised preflop, what is he really doing this with? JJ? AK? If he's a decent player, which your description is insinuating, he's likely not doing that with those hands. This is similar to bad players trapping by checking postflop with their monsters.

I will sometimes try to encorporate this similar sizing with my nuttish hands on the flop to sometimes induce raises from my more aggressive opponents because it looks so weak, or to get really light calls from players who hate folding.

In regards to his perception, how did you come up with the assertion that this player is thinking at this high of a level, plus that he's weighing your range of hands? I think you might be overthinking this, especially at live $1/$2. Just my opinion from what I have experienced.

Also, why raise the flop? What hands are calling us that we beat? I can't think of any.

As played, fold to the 3bet OTF. He's almost never cbet/3bet shoving with a hand AQ beats. If he somehow had showed up with AQ/KQ, you hit the absolute 1/10 bottom of his range scenarios. Everything realistically is crushing you here.

This. So much.

Have to agree with this. A raise to $50 is never truly getting called by this particular villain by a hand that we beat.

Exactly.

^easy to quote based on results huh?

Well, that was my take. You don't have to like it I guess.