Villain is a Hispanic male in his 20s. Just another recreational player in town for the weekend with his friends killing time before a night out on the town. I saw him call the river with a pair of aces holding AT after somebody raised his bet. He has a poor understanding of fundamentals, limps in a lot, and calls too much.

Hero has been seen to win some pots and lose some pots. Hasn’t really established a solid image. He’s been the preflop raiser the few times he’s entered pots. Has only been sitting at the table for one hour. A drunk guy at the table makes a comment outloud saying, “Look at this guy, he’s serious.” People at the table here this comment.

$1/$3 Live Full Ring Cash Game @ Wynn

Stacks:
Hero is UTG with $450
Villain is BB with $500

Pre-Flop: ($4) Hero is UTG with QQ
Hero raises to $15, folds around to the BB who says, “All right, I’ll give you action” and calls $12 more

Flop: 354 ($31, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $22, BB calls $22

Turn: Q ($75, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $55, BB raises to $155, Hero?

At this point, Hero has $358 left while Villain has $308 left. When V said, “All right, I’ll give you action” I did not put him on a strong hand. I put him on Ax, high cards, suited connectors, gap connectors, and low to mid pocket pairs.
What is your move after facing the c/r?

he probably has AQ? would he call 15 with 67 suited out of the blinds? probably not. does he bet his flush draws strong? I would probalby tank call, then try to get it in on the river.

Calling turn and most rivers. 2 on river is probably only card I'm folding.

I did not have an opportunity to observe how he plays his flush draws. The only hands I've seen him play with are AT/AJ/ and another hand with high cards so I cannot confirm nor deny whether he bets his flush draws strong.

If you're putting him on AQ and you're going to get it in OTR, why not just 3b OTT to get it in then instead of waiting till the river with the possibility of a scare card coming. At this level, I don't think players will fold AQ here.

What is the range you assign him?

Grunch;

The title of this thread is wrong. It should be "What is the Baluga Theorem?"

Shove the turn, most players at this level are incapable of check-raise/folding here, and there are a ton of bad river cards that kill your action.

Grunch

Shove. If he has 67 or a2 fine. Hes has sets two pair tp and draws way more often

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Ax,Qx,FD's, possibly smaller sets and a made straight

“You should strongly re-evaluate the strength of one-pair hands in the face of a raise on the turn.”

We have top set. How does Baluga theorem have anything to do with this hand?

Shove on the turn. What are you waiting for?

AK

This.

Ok, there's a 2% chance he flopped a straight. At best he's got 6 7 and in the very unlikely event he does, you've still got outs. I mean unless he shows you his cards, I don't see how you could put him on a straight - a club draw is more likely.

He could have Q J here, in which case you're WAY ahead.

And if he has Ax Q here, you're in even better shape.

Set over set, you've got it all but locked up.

I don't see him folding if you shove

Another club or another card that puts four to the straight could scare villain on the river (and us too). I'm shoving now to get more out of his top pair, sets, two pairs, and draws that won't make it by the river. And how can we not be ahead here a large percentage of the time?

I was tired, lol, I grunched everything, including the OP. I just read the title. I kinda assumed no one would be asking about a turn check/raise when they had a set. My bad....

Villain has a super wide range that you crush. Only A2 and 67 have you beat and you still have equity against those hands. I'm shoving all day and expecting to get called by worse. If he has 67, it's a cooler.

Villain's speech pre leads me to believe he may have a big PP and is trapping you.

Having said that, his range is still pretty wide, and he wants to get $ in.

Bet pot on the flop.

When you bink top set on the turn, you should bet pot again so you can bet stacks in.

AP, shove over his x/r.

like what other's said, its time to ship it.

too many rivers kill your action. were you actually considering folding or are you asking whether to flat or jam?

I agree with this line of thinking. I think most of the time villain holds 2 pairs or sets, and we're much better off getting the money in now rather than wait for a club or deuce to help him find a fold. I think sometimes he may hold the nut flush draw; I've seen players at this level decide to raise with it on the turn rather than the flop. I think it's pretty rare that he shows us A2 or 76, and even when he does we get 3.6 to 1 on our money heading to the river. It's pretty tough for him to have AQ when we hold the case queens, but that's also something I can picture here. Once in a while I can see a player thinking that he's "springing a trap" with KK/AA here and not realizing that a turn raise only gets action from a range that destroys him.

As far as numbers go, our shove would be for his last $260, and the pot would contain $640, so he's getting roughly 3 to 1 on a call. The NFDs in his range only give him 4 to 1, but he probably doesn't realize this or care, so that's good for us.

x2 on all of this

lol, no.

_______________________________

On a related note, I was playing around with his range in stove a bit, and I was interested to see that if we give him this range:


AcAd,KcKd,55-33,AQs,A2s,KQs,QcJc,QcTc,76s,AQo,KQo

We have 74% equity.

If we give him 76o, our equity goes down to 58%, and if we also give him A2o, our equity goes down to 50%

If we take the two AA and KK combos out of his range, which I doubt should be in there anyway, our equity goes down to 48%. You could also argue that he's really unlikely to have KQo based on the flop action, in which case, our equity would go down to 46%.

ETA: I somehow dropped 54s and 43s from my turn range for the V. Adding them back in gives us 49% equity. I don't think we should give him all 54o combos, but if we do, our equity goes back up to 57%.

Preflop and flop look fine to me.

I would have bet way more on the turn, a ~PSB. If he's calling a big bet, he's calling a big bet, so make it $75 instead of $55. This also enables our planned shove on the river to not be as huge an overbet.

As played, I'd just shove now. He obviously likes his hand so let's get it in now before a scare card (flush / 4-to-a-straight) possibly kills things. We're ahead of smaller sets as well as overpairs (AA/KK show up a lot here, imo) plus Qx + draw hands. We're only behind flopped straights and against a guy who doesn't understand hand strength we don't really have to be worried that a check/raise on the turn has to be the nuts.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Grunch:

It seems as though he has the Q

Shove, because he isn't folding.

???

villian is pot committed. why not just get it in?

good chance that villian has A2 here since OP bothered to make a thread about it.

but still........get it in. poker is more about luck than it is skill...... and your hand is in a position to get lucky.

I think villain could take this line with a straight, 2 pair, sets, and the occasional AQ. I don't think he'd c/r with a pair and a draw.

If I think villain definitely calls (which it seems like), I just ship it. If there's any chance of him folding I click it back which would probably get him to shove. Obviously never folding and not just calling here either. We're way ahead of his range.

Villain actually had A2cc. He flopped a straight with the nut flush draw. I guess I posted this thread because at this level, a c/c on the flop and c/r on the turn is a very aggressive move and screams strength. I don't think players at this level would make this move with just a naked flush draw. So was wondering if I could have found a fold button even though I have a full house draw to his flopped straights.