Hero $1000 - Hasn't done much of anything because I have only been at the table for an hour. I have played with a few of the villains before, but no in particular in this hand.

Villain - Older guy who hasn't 3bet, or raised pre yet. has called a few hands and seems to play suited aces and high cards.

Villain is UTG+1 and goes $15
Mid position calls
Hero CO calls $15 with 66

$52
36A
Check
Check
Hero goes $40
Call
Call

$172
T
Check
Check
Hero goes $125
Only villain calls

Q
Villain leads $275
Hero???

Gross. High on my suspicion list is that he has AA or QQ. If this was a trickier player maybe you could theorize that he checked AK or AQ OTF because he figured everyone would fold if he bet, but I'm not crediting some lol older guy with that. Basically the times that you win are going to be when he turns his hand over and it's some super random thing where you go "wat". Like he has 99, or something.

I sigh call because I don't want to fold when I don't have a handle on how this guy plays and so few hands beat me, but I'm definitely not happy about it.

Shrug call. There are so many combos of AQ and so few combos of better.

Yeah that really sucks but call it off and learn about this villain for the future.


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I was more worried about a back door flush draw with an A like Ah5h or AhJh than AA or AQ

If you put AQ in his range then it's a must call


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Most old guy SB guys aren't raising A5s from UTG+1. The hands you are worried about are AA, AK, AJ and KJ (questionable) which is 6 combos. There are 9 combos alone of AQ.

This is a no brainer snap call.

You need to discount the Ax combos though because check flop is such an unlikely line for some old guy. Also you need to put some QQ in his range.

Like I said I'm calling, but it's closer than you think imo.

Just explo fold

You are seriously putting QQ in this guy's range for x/c two streets on an Ace high flop? Villain has absolutely zero QQ here.

You've never seen someone check call down a high pair when it's blatantly obvious they are beaten and then reveal their hand at the end and give the table a look like they expect sympathy? Happens all the time at my local.

I mean I think QQ is unlikely to take this line, but every holding is unlikely to take this line and he has to hold something. Some random old guy check calling AK or AQ on an Axx flop is even less likely imo. Probably the single most likely hand is AA.

I like betting $150 on the turn when the board gets wetter. Pretty easy call on the river.

It seems there are enough combos of AQ (9) versus Axhh/AA/QQ (14) to make this a call.

I'm discounting any other A/2pr hit before river as I would expect the flush to not make them want to bet out/would have bet out earlier.

I'm discounting KJ as would he really call the flop with that? If yes, take a note and target later.

I understand johnnyBuz's line of thinking, but I'm wondering if you've seen V play KQs in early with a limp or calling a minor raise & playing passively.
Some players hate AQ OOP & won't even play it until UTG+4.
They also don't throw in a $275 blocking bet to a flush board with top 2 pair. Usually.
Are you sure you've seen enough of his play in 1 hour to firm up his playing style enough to fold a set? You've seen what, maybe 28 hands with him.

especially when the flop is wet - i would highly doubt this guy ever has QQ or AA - we might also see a pre flop raise to $20 but that is debatable.

I don't think river is such an easy call with sizing... Axhh is going to be high up in the list of hands villain has. And KJss got there too. If the ace was a heart, I'd feel much better about it... I just feel like if villain has a value hand, stuff you beat like AT/AQ bet less, and bluffs bet less as well (assumptions based on "older guy who hasn't 3bet").

The other thing is, put yourself in villain's shoes with a hand that doesn't have Ah. Are you really going to, as villain, switch from check/call to lead river mode when hero has plenty of Axhh hands in his range. When it looks like I can easily have a flush, and the flush comes, and somebody bets into me, and I don't in fact have the flush - I tend to give them a bit more credit...

So why can't he have any QQ here? seems reasonable to me?

I guess that's why we need to believe we can realize a 15:1 return on our investment with those small/medium pairs.
~28 hands obviously wasn't enough to get a good read on this guy.

5 way to flop, villain calls two streets on ace-high board. $15 pre usually is not QQ...

I would not discount all QQ here, old guy can be pretty sticky and check call a lot, AA is more likely than QQ tho.

It's a close call, only reasonable hand we beat is AQ.

Maybe at 1/2. Old guys check calling QQ for two streets on ace high board when flop goes 5 way is pretty rare to see at any 2/5 game I've played, unless hero specifically has a very bluffy image (still they usually fold and show their cards to their neighbor and say "every time"). And pre to $15 with QQ is even more rare from the OMC type.