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Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet?

08-18-2019 , 12:39 PM
1-2 SPread Limit (max 100 per street). Holdem.

All villains and hero have 400+ in front and cover every street.

Villain 1 - Young white guy, body builder. Playing aggressive Though not a maniac. UITG +2

Villain 2 - middle aged white guy, calling station. Mid position.

Villain 3 another middle aged white guy Hijack, pretty reasonable, tight player

Hero - On the button.

Villain 1 raises preflop to $7, villain 2 calls, villain 3 calls.

Hero looks down to see 8h6h and decides to call. Blinds fold. ($31)

Flop comes 9s-7s-5c giving hero the nuts.

Villain1 bets out $15, Villain 2 calls villain 3 folds.

Hero raises to $65 to protect his hand. Villain 1 hesitates and then calls. Villain 2 folds
(176)

Turn is a 2 of diamonds. Villain 1 checks. Hero bets 100 (street max) to protect. Villain 1 snap calls.

River is 5s completing both the possible flush and full house. Villain 1 insta-bets street cap of 100

Call or fold?
Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Quote
08-18-2019 , 12:46 PM
That sucks, but I don't even think we can fold given pot going into the river is $376, so we only have to be good 17.4% of the time and we probably are with the nut straight.
Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Quote
08-18-2019 , 06:01 PM
Villian 1 played the hand like a big flush draw. It would seem to me he’d be more aggressive with a set unless it came in on the turn.

I’m not good enough to fold a straight in a big pot, though, so I’m always calling here
Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Quote
08-18-2019 , 07:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluto
Villian 1 played the hand like a big flush draw. It would seem to me he’d be more aggressive with a set unless it came in on the turn.

I’m not good enough to fold a straight in a big pot, though, so I’m always calling here
I'd snap fold if it was a real bet
Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Quote
08-18-2019 , 07:31 PM
given the odds offered, I don't think we have enough flushes and full houses in our range to fold the nut straight
Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Quote
08-18-2019 , 07:33 PM
I don't have any experience with these spread limit games, but i'm guessing it reduces both implied odds and fold equity, which makes speculative hands like 86s harder to play.
So yeah, fold pre(?). But again, i don't have any real world experience in this format.
Also, might as well make it 100 on the flop, since that is lost value we can't make up on later streets.

AP, we should have a bunch of full houses and flushes in our range ourselves, so folding the straight here is fine.
Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Quote
08-19-2019 , 12:11 AM
In this case, I'm glad that is this max 100 and is not no limit. I call.

If he boated with 22s then that's just awful
Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Quote
08-19-2019 , 03:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
That sucks, but I don't even think we can fold given pot going into the river is $376, so we only have to be good 17.4% of the time and we probably are with the nut straight.
I don't know about that. Given what we know about the player pool and tendencies, I think V1 is probably bluffing less than 5% of the time here.... if that. It just happens so little that we can probably make a correct fold here.
Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Quote
08-19-2019 , 01:04 PM
I call.
Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Quote
08-19-2019 , 01:20 PM
maybe im crazy but i think i fold pre, this hand is RIO city
Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Quote
08-19-2019 , 02:27 PM
Edit: Just realized the flush hit, too, so V is betting into a flush / full house board. This might be a fold, and I probably fold at the table.
Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Quote
08-19-2019 , 06:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ashtona
given the odds offered, I don't think we have enough flushes and full houses in our range to fold the nut straight
I don’t mean to put you on the spot, but can you break this down a bit? I’m trying to learn how to range hands, and statements like this confuse me.

How does having flushes in our range affect whether we should or shouldn’t call?
Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Quote
08-20-2019 , 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluto
I don’t mean to put you on the spot, but can you break this down a bit? I’m trying to learn how to range hands, and statements like this confuse me.

How does having flushes in our range affect whether we should or shouldn’t call?
So we can calculate based on the size of Villain's bet relative to the pot the % of time we have to call to ensure that betting with any two cards is not immediately profitable for Villain. This is referred to as Minimum Defense Frequency (MDF) in NL.

https://upswingpoker.com/glossary/mi...frequency-mdf/

In this case our MDF is 376 / (376 + 100) = 79%. This means we must call or raise 79% of the time, otherwise V profits by betting his entire range. Now I haven't gone too deep into the combinatorics of Hero's range (and it would be impossible to do so in real time) by the time he reaches the river, but I doubt we can fold 86 and worse and still meet this massive MDF. Thus, folding would be exploitative on our part but would expose our own range to being massively overbluffed.
Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Quote
08-21-2019 , 05:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ashtona
So we can calculate based on the size of Villain's bet relative to the pot the % of time we have to call to ensure that betting with any two cards is not immediately profitable for Villain. This is referred to as Minimum Defense Frequency (MDF) in NL.

https://upswingpoker.com/glossary/mi...frequency-mdf/

In this case our MDF is 376 / (376 + 100) = 79%. This means we must call or raise 79% of the time, otherwise V profits by betting his entire range. Now I haven't gone too deep into the combinatorics of Hero's range (and it would be impossible to do so in real time) by the time he reaches the river, but I doubt we can fold 86 and worse and still meet this massive MDF. Thus, folding would be exploitative on our part but would expose our own range to being massively overbluffed.

Thank you for responding!

So, if I’m understanding this, if I do a quick determination of the MDF, and it’s a large number, I should be looking for ways to make a call, unless it’s truly obvious I’m a dog in the hand? Like, if I have top pair, but there’s three to a flush and four to a straight on the board that hits my opponent’s range.

From a practical standpoint, how does this differ from using pot odds? I should be calling if the pot odds are right, and my opponent benefits every time I make a decision for the wrong price.
Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Quote
08-22-2019 , 09:15 AM
Fold pre, but as played, just call.
Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Quote
08-22-2019 , 09:40 AM
Can’t raise its spread limit.
Worst possible river card..do I call the big bet? Quote

      
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