Wow PFunk, thanks for taking the time. I like it.

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He is not a wizard (how many of them play 1/2) but is definitely not a station either based on the description. That betsizing looks really suspicious coming from such a reckless villain. He must have figured V1 missed the flop, and didn't hit a king when he bet $120 into $140 and then overbet the river.

I'd hate to make those calls with 33 though. At least if you have AQ you have some equity in case you're behind a pair. With 33 you're drawing almost dead more often.

The bet sizes didn't make any sense. It also sounds like the player was just betting and betting regardless of what came, and sometimes its a huge giveaway that they are bluffing. That board is super dry too.

V2 trusted his read. Good for him. Its a great call. Not a wizard, just a really good player paying attention, being hyper-aware of whats going on, and noticing V1's illogical behaviour in the hand.

Wow.

Raised big UTG, anything from AA down to crazy suited connectors

This the over bet starts forming his range here.
Likely holdings of
-Over pairs TT+
-Bluffs overcards/gutshots/open enders/total air
-sets

I think he probably bets his 9x or 77/88 more reasonably here. probably his sets too but who knows

Big bet on a big card.
His likely holdings are
-Big pairs AA, Kx and we cut out TT-QQ
(I think TT-QQ still bets just not as big)
-Bluffs overcards/gutshots/open enders/total air
-Sets

Now the board pairs and V1 shoves.

V2 likely doesn't have a monster hand but could have a 6x

-Sure all V1 boats got there, but what could call a shove here? Still makes sense, he could think "I have a boat ill shove and hope to get called"

-AA and Kx are likely kind of scared of the 6x and what could call them if they bet so big. AA/Kx likely bets much smaller hoping to get a 9x to call.

-Bluffs have made it this far, and have no showdown equity, have to make opponent fold


By betting so big on the river he becomes SUPER polarized. He either has a boat or a bluff. And there are WAAAAAY hands in his range that have to bluff than are there sets that filled up.

Would have been super sick if V1 turned his 44s into a bluff and won the pot!

All of this analysis is correct, but defending with 33 is still ill-advised. Hands don't end on the flop. J8o has 30% equity against 33, and a range of 6x- is comfortably ahead (much less 88-).

Of course, there's the possibility that villain's sizing will become more reasonable (or he'll stop betting altogether) if he hits his Jack, so he can exploit based on sizing and action on future streets enough that he can still own him with a pair of 3s. But 1) everything to this point of the post is assuming that he's right 100% of the time that this is a total bluff, and 2) snapping him off here with a totally garbage hand just to show villain how big his balls are isn't a good longterm thing to do, even if it's marginally +EV. He's now taught villain a lesson ... which is exactly not what he wants to do.

Seeing as how basically any hand KT or better is a better hand to do this with (as in K-high on the flop, as in AQ is much better to do this with, as in we would split our ranges into various segments past the flop based on what the turn card is, etc), he might as well make plays with better EV margins and then tank/call his A-high hands on the river and make it seemed like he chased overcards the first few streets, only to catch a tell on villain on the final bet, so that villain has no idea what part of his game to readjust.

Oh, so that's where Dwan got that!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkPXztxVOEA

durrrr would have played better except Hellmuth was constantly yapping "I'm so good, I remember every hand, I play every hand perfectly, etc."