Villain is a bearded dude who is friends with a guy I know is a bad reg. Villain plays pretty loose preflop, and I've seen him make some loose river calls, but usually when he raises pf, he has a decent hand. I've seen him cbet full pot on dry boards and then show his overpair when no one calls.
Villain has just under 300. I've got about 375.
I raise CO with 33 to 10
He 3bets in the BB to 27 and I call. I call because I think we're deep enough that I can outplay him sometimes, and I think against me, he won't fold an overpair if I hit my set. (I'm sure he could find a fold against a nit at the table).
Flop (54): AK3

Check, check
This check is super suspicious to me. At this point, I thought he might have QQ or JJ, but I was pretty suspicious of KK or AA. I think he bets AK/AQ here, and I don't put many bluffs in his pf 3betting range. I don't know why I didn't bet the flop.
Turn (54): Q
He bets 60.

Hero??

You beat AK and lose to pretty much everything else. 9 AK, 9 sets combowise. Worst set of all time.

If your villain was creative enough to c/r the two spades board with top/middle set, claps for him. But vast majority of time, people will fire cbet on this kind of board, when he bet the turn, it seems like he had JTs something like this. Occasionally maybe AJ/AQo as he didn't want to be raised oop it could be ugly he's against some kind of fd

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you called a 3bet, in his eyes has should put you on something. There's no reason for him to let you catch up if he flopped the nuts. Does he really want to let JT or 78ss get there or something? Never check this back to him. On the turn just call him down, fold if a 4 straight gets there.

Bet flop. As played keep the pot small.

Pre is fine. Pretty borderline though. Insta folding 100bb deep.

Bet flop.

AP, call turn.

If you call the turn bet you do not know if you are a hero or dummy until you call his perhaps much larger bet on the river. You have to be a hero twice and this will cost many chips.

Maybe he does not have you beat but beats you on the river then your hero call still loses.

You can not call. You can go all in or fold. I would fold. My poker experience is limited (I am 22) however this situation seems an easy decision if I only use the information you write.

You can re-evaluate the river if there is a big bet. But AK will have to think it is good and bet. So I don't think you can take AK combos out on the river.

Bet flop. Call turn call River. Maybe shove depending on his sizing.

Don't check the flop with a set...that's just...bleh. Not only do you fail to extract value but you create ambiguous situations like this. Is villain slowplaying a monster or is he just donking the turn because you checked behind? Who knows?

I would call or raise here and reevaluate on river. Villain could have QQ+ (9 combos) but he could also have AK, AQ, AJ, possibly JTs or AXs (if he 3bets wide), or 44-JJ. You are ahead of a lot more hands than you are behind. Villain's flop check could be genuine weakness, then he either improves on the turn or decides since you checked he should take a stab at the pot. Don't fold here.

In fact I'd probably get it in for anything but a T on the river. A J is not nearly as bad as he probably doesn't 3-bet AT unless it's suited, and still maybe not. If you get stacked, you get stacked.

What on God's green earth are you talking about? Folding would be so bad rn.

Agreed here, I'm either calling or shoving. I really wish I had bet the flop though.

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That's what I'm thinking! You could MAYBE argue he has 2 AQs combos and he was trying to induce me to bet the flop, but I really think it's just AK, sets, and JJ that's desperation betting the turn. I think AQs bets the flop if he's even 3betting that pre.

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I just don't think his pf 3b range is that wide.

Okay, so I don't think he's a good enough player to think, "hm c/r would be a good line here." I think his reasoning is "I have the nuts or near nuts against an aggressive kid. Let me let him hang himself." I can see him going c/c and shipping any turn.

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Yeah, I was kicking myself for not betting the flop.

There's no way his 3bet range is that wide though. I had only been playing with him for about two hours, but he only 3bet once and had KK. Even his raising range was big pairs and AK every time he showed (maybe 3 or 4 hands) or went to showdown. I think his 3b range is JJ+, AQs+, AKo

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If you wanna fold, fold to the $60 bet. I'd go broke with a set there everyday. I'm not folding it to 1 opp. I'd bet the flop. You can get 3bet from AK/AQ or just because he thinks he can outplay you (what most likely happened).

The bearded dude I know 3-bets people with J6s. Why do you exclude that? Based on his image he could easily bluff with A5 and such.

Bet flop

Call turn and raising are both fine

You have a set lol

People tend not to show the bottom of their raising or 3-betting ranges.

You didn't specify a read on villain other than he's friends with a bad reg. Oh, and "bearded dude." I assume this means regfish or bad TAG. I'm pretty sure he's not an OMC. Your raise from CO looks like a steal. He could easily be 3-betting that wide, but that's not really the point. If he's even half that wide defending the blinds this is an easy call. We lose to 9 combos of AA, KK, QQ, and that's it from a tight 3-betting range. We beat 9 combos AK. We beat 9 combos AQ. We beat 12 combos JJ and TT. We beat tons of other hands, but these are the ones he's most likely to 3-bet here. Unless you KNOW he only 3-bets {QQ+} this is a call. Even super tight players 3-bet {QQ+, AK} at least in this spot. He would play AK almost the same as the sets. You have to call.

And your hand history with this guy is two hours. That's what, 60 hands? During this time he 3-bets twice, once ever 30 hands, or about 3.4%. We can't take that as his 3-betting range unless he's running exactly average, but that's {99+, AQs+, AKo} for the record. Just because he had KK once doesn't mean that's near the bottom of his 3-betting range.

Moreover, what's your table image? I'm guessing you raise more than most players? Maybe he noticed. Maybe he 3-bets wider in a defend vs. steal situation against an aggressive player. Unless you've got a lockdown read this guy is super tight and super passive, call. If you're pretty sure he really is that tight, *and* he bets big on the river, *then* think about laying down your hand. But it's too soon now. You checked the turn, which means he's got his whole 3-betting range still with him. If you'd bet the flop, he'd have folded out his weakest holdings and you'd have an easier decision.

Oh, don't get me wrong. I was NEVER folding the turn here. The question was do I gii on a safe river. I definitely think you're right about his 3! range though. He could just have me pegged for an aggro kid and loosened up a bit against my LP raise.

As played, I shipped. I think it was a mistake, but I don't think it was a huge one. He doesn't put anymore money in the pot with JJ anyway, but I might have gotten away from a river bet. He actually took a few seconds to think before calling. He turned over KK and said, "I was worried you had Aces."

What to do on the turn was your key question...

So what was the river card and how much did he bet? Or did he check? I think shipping is probably not a mistake but it depends on the exact action.

Shoving the river is good on most cards. First let's look at all rivers but T, J, and spades. I don't think most villains can get away from the hand with {QQ+, AQ+}. We don't know if AQ is in his 3-betting range but some of the time it is, so we say maybe he 3-bets the suited combos (2 combos). So we figure when he calls we lose to 9 combos of QQ+ and beat 11+ combos of AQ+. Even if it's just AK, there's plenty of money in the pot to ship it.

If the river is a non-spade T or J (particularly a T) you might not want to shove, but still call.

But If it's a spade, get it in. You have more spades in your range than villain and he might even fold a set on a spade river if he's nitty enough. And your line check/check bet/call bet/shove would be very consistent with a flush hitting the river.

As for his comment about worrying whether you had AA, he probably was a little worried, as nobody wants to lose their stack in a set over set situation, but if he's the least bit intelligent he knows he has to call and it's not even close. From his point of view, you're just as likely to have QQ or 33. Plus you checking behind the flop with AA would be even more insane than checking behind with 33. If I were him, based on your betting action, I'd put you on QQ. None of the other hands in your range make sense due to the flop check and later action (except maybe JTs).

Anyway, I think you played the hand fine, except for checking the flop, which is just...well we've been over that.

urite I just didn't know how to post it because I didn't want to reveal that I shipped the turn. I wanted to know if I should call turn call river or call turn fold river (depending on the river).

River was another A, but I had already shipped at that point.

I think you're right about the river spade.

Thanks for all of your help with this hand. I'm a teacher, and this will be my first summer of playing full-time. Trying to work out the kinks in my game. Much appreciated.

Ah, okay. For future reference I think you could post the hand as you did, then underneath, put something like

A) Call, Fold, or Shove Turn?

B) If I call turn, on which river cards should I get it in?

I like to do this in my own hand histories to be very clear about the information I'm seeking.

And I think shoving the turn is also okay, for the same reasons listed in my previous post. It's a bit of an overbet so he might not call quite as often with the two pair hands, but there's enough money in the pot it's okay if we're a little behind.

Calling and then shoving the river is likely better, as you keep more of villain's range in.

Sure you're welcome. I am also a former teacher (mathematics) just starting to grind live full time, though I've played millions of hands online, so we are in pretty similar circumstances.