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wierd spot 1-2 NLH deep

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01-17-2018 , 03:32 PM

bhtong

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 137

Villain is a competent TAG I also Play TAG , this may seem like a very easy post, but I am really wondering if this guy is bluffing and if I should find a call here.

Villain (1000) straddles to 5
Hero (500) opens 88 to 20 UTG+1
Button (200) calls
Blinds fold
Villain raises to 80 in his straddle
Hero calls
Button folds

Pot (183) Flop 7

Villain ships it all in

Hero? What can he have, is he bluffing with AK or possibly 66 here. If he had an overpair wouldn't he want to get some value here? Obviously Hero should probably fold here, but what can Villain have that makes sense here?

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01-17-2018 , 03:46 PM

Garick

Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,516

He has about 1/3 AK, 1/4 66, and 5/12 monsters that are hoping you'll level yourself in to a call, imo. Depending on dynamics, those ratios change a lot, though.

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01-17-2018 , 04:57 PM

djcl86

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 62

That's definitely a strange line by the Villain. I totally agree with your line of thinking, that overpairs would want to get some value and wouldn't open over-bet shove on the flop. I don't know that I'd want to risk 210 BBs to find out if he is bluffing, but man I'm sure tempted to call here.

You said the Villain is a competent TAG, do you play with him/her a lot? Do they ever overbet pots like this? Or are you basing the "competent TAG" on a few hours of sitting at the table with them for the 1st time? If Villain is an unknown player for the most part, it's probably a fold.

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01-17-2018 , 05:01 PM

Gillingham

adept

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 932

I would fold instantly think he has a better hand that is ahead now and he doesn't know how to play/ is scared of seeing turns and rivers

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01-17-2018 , 05:04 PM

brianatca

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 162

Fold and wait to flop then nuts then stack them when they do it again.

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01-17-2018 , 07:57 PM

Katman

adept

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 708

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garick

He has about 1/3 AK, 1/4 66, and 5/12 monsters that are hoping you'll level yourself in to a call, imo. Depending on dynamics, those ratios change a lot, though.

Based on this breakdown, this is actually a close call.

Probably should fold pre to the 3-bet though.

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01-17-2018 , 09:07 PM

Nogyong

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,801

He has about 4/12 AK/AQs, 2/12 66/88, and 6/12 pocket pairs JJ+ or higher.

I don't think he takes this line with 99/TT or sets.

He was probably thinking about jamming good flops preflop.

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01-18-2018 , 12:28 AM

EVZStreaming

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 124

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogyong

He has about 4/12 AK/AQs, 2/12 66/88, and 6/12 pocket pairs JJ+ or higher.

I don't think he takes this line with 99/TT or sets.

He was probably thinking about jamming good flops preflop.

I agree with this that he had JJ or higher, no chance he has 88 considering you have 88

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01-18-2018 , 12:48 AM

Nogyong

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,801

Quote:

Originally Posted by EVZStreaming

no chance he has 88 considering you have 88

There is exactly one combo of 88 and six combos of 66

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01-18-2018 , 12:54 PM

#10

shorn7

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,495

Could he do this with A6, 65, or 64? If so then I think we have a clear call. My gut tells me he has specifically AA or KK most of the time though. I put the chance of him having a str8 or a set at a very low %.

With no other info though, it is tough to call 200 blinds off just to see.

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01-18-2018 , 01:05 PM

#11

mustberigged

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 87

Usually just fold. Sometimes they have a random 6x but most of the time have you beat.

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01-18-2018 , 01:10 PM

#12

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,772

Just fold. Don't show, but try to get him to. It does look a lot like AK/AQ, but it could be anything, and a lot of anything beats 88. Let's hope it happens again when you have a better hand to call with.

Of course, it would help to know how often he 3bets? How often does he 3bet his straddle? How often does he straddle?

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01-18-2018 , 04:38 PM

#13

Nogyong

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,801

OP: The main question you should be asking yourself is "is it profitable long term to be calling this large raise pre-flop with 88?"

A lot of people would argue that you should not call a large raise with a medium pocket pair pre-flop unless you can expect to win between 10 times and 20 times the size of the amount it cost you to call. I actually think the number is somewhere around 14.

In this particular case, the size of effective stacks was 500 and the size of your call was 60 so the most you could possibly expect to win when you hit your set is 500/60 = 8.33 times the size of your initial call.

Here are a couple of links discussing that concept:

https://www.cardschat.com/set-mining-poker.php

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/3...g+applied+odds

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01-18-2018 , 07:11 PM

#14

Dubey

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,844

fold pre to the 3-bet.

on the flop, it's probably close to a break-even spot. It's a fold because even if it is profitable, it's not by much, and the equity of having a reasonable stack going forward and not having to rebuy or be tilted for punting a stack is probably greater than your EV of calling in this spot.

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01-18-2018 , 07:40 PM

#15

Nogyong

veteran

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,801

Maybe it's something like this...

Equity:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

11,880 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 7

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
8d8s	41.42%	4,873	96
AdKh,AcKc,AsKs,AhKd,TsTc,KsKc,JsJh,KhKd,JdJc,AsAc,AhAd,QcQs	58.58%	6,911	96

Pot odds:
420/(183+420+420)=41% (i.e. possibly break even play on this one occasion)

But we become extremely exploitable if we start making these kinds of hero calls.

They can just raise us with JJ+ and jam any low flop knowing we stack off with all of our preflop calling range.

If you're some kind of sick well-bankrolled baller maniac whale who always plays extremely deep with the same people, maybe there is some metagame reason why you would want to snap call here once for advertising reasons.

But more likely they will start isolating us with AJs+/TT+ and large raises preflop and it will probably end in pain and suffering.

Last edited by Nogyong; 01-18-2018 at 07:56 PM.

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01-18-2018 , 08:00 PM

#16

venice10

Referee

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 25,855

Fold the 3bet preflop. Then you won't put yourself in the situation where you have to make decisions like this.

Split once wrote an thread about how to decide when a decision is close. He said he then looks at if you made a mistake in your assumptions, where would the decision move towards. In this case with a TAG, his range is going to be tighter, not looser. That pushes this to a fold.

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