$1-$2 NL Cash Game

Players:
CO ($400) = Straightforward. He does not bet with draws. But sometimes he bets with the worse made hand.
Hero ($400) = I should be seen as tight-aggressive. I have not been caught getting out of line.

Four players limp.
Hero is on the Button with AK and raises to $17
Four players call.
Pot = $88
5 players

Flop: JT3
Three checks - CO bets $60 - Hero ???

Villain only bets is he hits, so he has a made piece.
If he has only One Pair, he may check the turn. If he has more, I expect him to bet the turn. He has $323 behind.
I have position, two Overs and the Gut Shot.
Is this enough to peel one card?

Please advise

--CM

By our own estimate we have 6 outs with the overs and 4 outs with the gut shot.

Maybe.

Because if our Villain has AT, AJ, KT, or KJ we only have three outs with the overs.

And if our Villain has a set we are paying dearly for the privilege of drawing dead.

If our Villain has JT we only have four outs.

And if our Villain has KQ it's not quite as rosy either.

So take away two of our presumed outs, some might argue to take away more.

And assume if we hit an out on the turn our hand will still be good on the river.

And assume there will be an affordable turn bet if we don't hit our out on the turn (this assumption is probably the weakest one... and the most expensive one because it would not be a great play to call the $60 and fold the turn.

That gives us 6 + 4 - 2 or eight outs twice, for about 32%, roughly.

Pot is now $148.

If we think he is certain to "have a piece" of the flop, our fold equity is probably pretty low.

I personally limit the times I try to bluff a straightforward player off what he thinks is a made hand, unless for some reason I believe there is n enhanced likelihood of success.

Your mileage my vary.

It's close - but here's a thought.

Against a straightforward player, why not wait until we actually have something to put $60 in on the flop?

This spot is high variance at best.

The other alternative, to shove, lets us see both the turn and the river cards, at a high price, which illustrates the variance clearly.

We should try to get the money in "good", and it's OK if we don't win every time our starting cards are pretty.

Against a 2/3 bet that is never a bluff with 3 players still to act, I'm folding. If it was a smaller bet in a HU pot vs. someone who is going to bluff, sure. But not here.

Easy fold. A and K are not pure outs for you, could be high reverse implied odds if you hit them honestly. Plus they’re at least scare cards for a lot of the hands we’re hoping to be drawing against so won’t have high implied odds either.

Plus all those folks behind you, just let it go and live to fight another day. Take solace you’re in a great game where half the table is peeling preflop OOP for 8.5x BB lol

This. Float in position heads up, not 4 ways

Insta fold.

If you haven’t solved this one, it will only take one occurrence of you calling and one of the first two players x/r for you to learn your lesson.

Thanks for the advice.

Is there an amount that we would be comfortable calling this flop for?
Even though our outs are dirty and there are so many people still to act?
$30 possibly?

--cm

Never floating here 20 ways otf

+ONE! Because.....the flop hit so many types of hands!

No, $30 is still way too much to pay to float imo. I would say you can float only if he makes a dumb bet size like $10 or less, something like that where you’re getting direct odds to call to try and hit a Q. All the people left to act behind you is what forces your calling range to be this tight.

$27 Preflop

pf seems too small by about $8-10 bucks

I'm curious as to the reason for the above 2 posts. Is OP suppose to take your recommendation as gospel? If so, are you expecting him to just make it larger in the future with his faith in your recommendation?

I would think an explanation as to why that much would be extremely helpful. I mean if OP is not raising the correct amount, there's a good chance that he doesn't understand why a larger raise is the optimal play.

Winner

I’m not raising AK from 2 to 27.

Are you raising your whole range to $27?

I understand AK wants to play heads up, but I want to get value from my good hands not force everyone out. That to me is a big leak. But maybe I’m wrong and I just don’t understand.

Once you see the flop 5-ways, your good hands aren't that good anymore, unless you hit a monster.

AKo loses 5.6% equity 5-ways on that flop vs typical fish preflop calling ranges (15, 20, 25, 30 %). What realistically happens is that one of those 5 people picks up the most equity.

And someone's leading 3/4 pot into 4 players. What's your plan to get value now?

That doesn't mean we should be going $30-35+ preflop at 1/2 or whatever, but we do need to adjust it for so many limpers. I usually just double the amount of money in the pot as my raise and round it up or down to the nearest $5 based on my table 'feel', which in this case would be $22 rounded up or down (probably up in this case).

Raise preflop is fine. Keep the sizing consistent (ex. 1bb for every limper +2 BB if in poor position) Flop is either a fold or jam based on read from opponent. I would fold unless I believe my fold equity is pretty decent.

I know you probably see all of the vloggers and pros saying "my hand is just too good here" but this situation is different. You have only 4 clean outs and a ton of reverse implied odds when you gain equity.