Here has been at the table almost an hour, no solid reads on anyone yet. Main villain had been absent most of that time but just returned about 5 hands ago. No history but seems to be a typical mid20's, asian, hoodie wearing foxwoods 1/2 regular.

Effective stacks are $250, villain covers with $800ish.

Villain opens to $12, folds to hero in the BB who calls with Ad4d

Flop ($25) 8 - 9 - T with two diamonds.

Hero check/calls $20 on the flop

Turn 8c

Check/Check - If he's strong he has to bet this turn strongly. If not, he will check or bet small. I was planning to check/raise any bet that was at or near 1/2 pot sized.

River 3s

Hero bets $55

Thoughts on all streets appreciated. Specifically I'm wondering if I should have led the turn. I also feel like my "check/raise a weak bet" plan was kind of iffy

this is why you need to fold pre ainecal

the odds of calling him on the flop are not there so you should probably be better donking out, than c/r'ing the flop without knowing if we have FE (where is villain's position)?

I don't like calling this raise pre OOP and HU with only $250 effective. If you want to maximize FE, I would probably be c/r this flop to $80 and shoving all turns but that is going to be a high variance play and you are flying blind since you have no reads on V.

I prefer betting my bricked rivers when IP after scare cards hit (overcards to board) and V checks to Hero indicating some level of weakness.

Congrats if V folded here but I have a feeling he called you down because your line doesn't really make sense and looks exactly like a bricked draw.

If you are calling this pre, you need to lead flop or c/r flop.

As played, I might have bet turn.

As played, what do you represent? I wouldn't fold any pair+ here to your river bet.

c/c flop is essentially telling the other guy that you have a draw.

Most V would bluff catch wide in this spot on river.

I wanted to check raise the turn, but it didn't work. But that told me that he was probably super weak against this straightened flushening paired board. All broadway hands are still in his range. Only QJ, and AT can continue, both should have bet the turn. Pocket pairs smaller than 7's are still in his range too, and I figured he'd fold those too.

It's really hard from him to call the river without a monster, a ten, or an 8. And nothing he's done so far narrows his range that much. A slightly less than PSB bet/fold on the river has to show a profit. It just has to.

PF: I don't like calling here with A4s in a heads up pot, OOP. Also, what position is V in? If he's in a later position, he may just be trying to steal meaning you're less likely to make any money if you hit a flush.

F ($25): Heads up. SPR is 9.5. I don't like a passive line here; we can't just call with our suited Ace, heads up, out of position, and just hope we hit our draw. I'd play this aggressively. I'd check raise to $80 and bomb the turn; this could represent all sorts of hands the V would be scared of that are reasonable for you to call out of the BB: 88, 99, TT, 98, T9, 67, QJ, AT, AdJd

T ($65): As played we just called the flop, so this V probably thinks we don't have two pair or a set, becasue we would probably raise the flop. In his eyes we probably have a draw, TP, or some sort of combo draw. I think checking is fine, as played.

R ($65): This pot sized bet doesn't really make sense if I was the V. Look at it from his eyes. We played this passively on an extremely wet board and then we fire pot on the river. I guess, an 8 may play the hand like this, especially if had a hand like A8 with a flush draw. Honestly, I'd probably just check here and hope A high is good.

which is also why plan of c/r turn isn't great

Correct, and all with SD value against busted draw.

For sake of simplicity, we'll just call it a PSB. In other words, you would need V to fold 50% of the times just to break even, and more than 50% of the times to make it profitable.

Why do you think it has to be profitable?

you are ahead of a sizable portion of the range you are targeting to bluff
of the hands that you aren't ahead of, a sizable portion of that range will call you b/c of the line you took, which looks a lot like what it is.

Totally totally totally disagree. This is exactly what I was thinking about when I made the bet.

My range looks like a busted draw, but could be a pair+ draw. Also, there is no reason for him to discount an 8 from my range. 78, 97, JT, J9 are definitely in my range. We have no history, so to him, I'm a typical 1/2 player who can easily show up with 86, A8, or a very passively played AT.

This is an AWFUL bluff catching board for a bare 9, ace high, and small pocket pairs. The only thing he beats is diamonds, and I haven't narrowed my own range to him that much.

@Below Zero

Never checking the river here. Just never. No chance of winning at show down with Ace high. All weaker hands would stab at this river after I check three times.

^^^In all due respect, Idontworkhere, you posted this hand asking for advice. IMHO, you are being a bit disrespectful when you write (3) "totally" in front of "disagree". Richard Parker is only giving you his opinion.

Your line looks like a busted draw, which it is.

Edit: Well it looks like you got this all figured out Idontworkhere. I'm sorry I responded.

With all due respect, gentleman, if we're splitting hairs, I didn't ask for advice. I asked for "thoughts". And this being a "discussion forum", I consider it my right to participate in the discussion.

So if the consensus here, is that my hand looks like a busted draw, fine, point taken. However, I don't think I'm out of line if I ask the group to elaborate on their response by going through the exercise of construction the hero's range from teh villain's perspective.

I think that exercise reveals that Hero's range has alot of 8's and pair+ draw hands along with busted diamonds that can beat Villain's bluff catchers. I think that deeper analysis shows that Mr Parker's analysis is erroneous, and that this is in fact a vile spot for bluff-catching. Furthermore, if Villain was actually strong, I think we would know by now.

So Villain can't call with bluff catchers, is wildly unlikely to be strong, and his passive line thus far doesn't suggest to me that he's going to call down with something marginal like JT.

That's why I believe a bet/fold on teh river must be profitable.

Discuss

You might get him to fold a better A hi I guess. Not much else.

it sounds like he called your river bet with pocket 5's and you want everyone to justify the bet and you will not take no for an answer.

if you wanted to take it down, bet 120 into 65 or jam it. then he can't call without the nuts.


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/

You can disagree all you want, but you can't project your own thinking process into your opponents.

What's more likely? Him thinking about all those hands that are in your range or him simply putting you on a busted draw?

Why on earth is this an awful bluff catching board? What is awful is trying to tell a weak story in 1/2.

honestly, this is a fairly typical reverse float. but you should probably bet less, like 1/2 pot. if he's going to call, he's going to call a PSB or a 1/2 PSB, if he's going to fold, he's going to fold to both.

you're targeting bigger Ax hands, which there are many.

i disagree with a lot of people who say his line only looks like a busted draw. a set on this board may c/r, but you're going to fold out everything except OESD and FDs. hell, you probably fold out AA vs some Vs. granted, thats exactly what we want to do, so you should be c/r the flop...

i think if OP posted this hand from Vs perspective and had a hand like JT, QT, any Ax, a lot of people would probably say to fold because the V (ie OP) would have a lot more 8s, better 2 pairs, FHs than he does busted FDs

as for pre, fold... only way i call this is if i'm closing action and there are like 3 callers. we're targeting Flush over Flush, and HU that just isnt going to happen a bunch.

Of course, I don't mind.

Of course it isn't out of line, but it's a pointless exercise.

Not really. The exercise revealed that somebody would probably troll you and say "move up where they respect your raise (range)."

Or his passive line simply means that he's rather wide.

And of course he's folding all his non-SD value hands, and that's probably how players who think like you do win these hands.

The fact that you kept on throwing out bet/fold makes me think you have no idea what you're saying.

Isn't it pretty obvious that you can't bet/call?

No, the title of the thread is "WHEN" to bet/fold. Not "JUSTIFY" my bet/fold.

Results



Thanks for your sarcasm

Again, you are simply projecting your own thinking into villain.

Question should be: what do you think most V would think about our range in this spot and why?

Fold pre and c/r flop ainec.

If bluffing river I think a small sizing to target folds from better A highs or an overbet to $100ish to target folds from Tx and overpairs are the best. A standard 2/3 to 3/4 sizing will have about the same fold equity as a small sizing would so might as well bet small if you're going that route.

Thank you.

To the owners/administrators of 2+2, please shut down the entire LLSNL forum. Every question on every hand ever played has been answered.

Everyone except hero is a level 0 idiot trying to make a pair and put their chips in. Play accordingly.

the results don't matter at all. If you are doing this 100 times, one result out of 100 is nothing. How do you know you would have still won with an ace if he had KQ, KJ, or SC's.

it's hard to make an accurate analysis on this hand without reads on V or most important, his position on the table.

Well, it does look like you won't be here long.