Villian is a spewy LAG. Played a big with him a bit before. From what I can remember he is an auto bet when checked to type player. Making big bets when opponent obviously are not folding. ATC's. Not sure about what he CC's with, but range is definitely wide.

Hero is new to table. Card dead tonight.

1/2

Hero ($475) opens AQ in EP to $15 after a limper. LAG (covers) calls on button and BB calls.

Flop: (44) Q44

Checked to hero who bets $35, LAG raises to $135, BB folds, Hero should be thinking what???

Cbet is slightly big on this dry-ish board. We want to target weaker Qx and medium PPs.

"Spewy LAG" is not enough to decide whether he's capable of turning his air into a bluff or a hand like spades into a semi-bluff here knowing you never have 4x, and QQ rarely ever in this spot. He knows you can't stand enough pressure with AA/KK/AQ (which is what your cbet reps) and his raise size is telling you to make a decision for your entire stack right now.

Without more reads, I'd assume a 1/2 LAG is not really good enough to make such a play without 4x so I'd fold.

I really like the LAG's play in this spot. You should be uncomfortable with your entire range here (excluding QQ ofcourse). What makes it a beautiful play imo is the stack sizes.

"Why did I buy in for 230bbs when I'm new to the table and have little feel for the dynamics?"

Generally I'm happy to play a big pot with Top top here, but being soooo deep gives me pause (but I suck at deepstack anyway)

Call it down given description.

c/c flop

If he autobets when checked to, I might start the hand with a check, planing on x/c 3 streets. Our hand will look like 99-JJ, maybe KQ at best, and villain may try to fire the river as well.
As played, given description, i'm still calling down. Because of card removal, he has one A4 combo (Ac4c), and several 4x combos (64cc, 64hh, 45cc, 45hh, 43cc, 43hh). Way more fd combos + some total air that will continue to barrel, because "Making big bets when opponent obviously are not folding"
Description on BB might be relevant, him being a fish might cause villain not to raise with a 4 to keep BB in the pot

Your hand plays pretty face up when you call the $135 which is why I like check calling the flop. By c/c you get at least another street of value out of your opponent if he has 55-jj. By your description I don't know if higher pockets are really in his range more likely some kind of flush draw. As played I like calling it down but be ready to make a turn decision if he puts you in if a spade hits.

Grunch.

You should be thinking...

"Would this player raise the flop with a weaker Qx?"
"Would this player raise the flop with a flush draw?"
"Can this player show up with 4x here?"
"Would this player slow play 4x on this flop?"
"Is this player capable of air ball bluffing in this spot?"

I would guess (without every having played with this player before) that the answers to these question's are...

If he truly is betting 100% of the time when checked to, then c/c is the right play on the flop. Now you have some decisions that need to be made.

Are you folding if a spade doesn't come on the turn or river? If the answer is yes, then you need to fold now. He's betting the turn. Don't waste your money if you're folding the turn to pressure. If no, then you've committed your stack. He doesn't know that yet, but your interest now needs to focus towards how you collect the most money from the widest range.

What we are interested in collecting money from TP, FD and air. If he has air, he may or may not bet the turn if we call. He'll fold to a raise. He'll bet the turn if he has TP as long as the FD doesn't come. He may or may not call a raise. If he has the FD, he'll check behind on the turn for the free card. He will likely call or shove over a raise.
Given these scenarios, we collect the most money with a raise. The bluffiest raise is a shove. If he has a FD, he's getting odds to call anyway. He can also talk himself into that hero has a FD and call with TP.

If he's a lag he's going to be putting pressure on you and this is a great flop to do it. I would call it down. Also how did you play before with him???if your a nut peddling nit and he's raising you here I would fold.

1. I don't know.
2. Definitely
3. Definitely
4. I don't know
5. I don't know.

Edit: My gut says he has a 4 or a flush draw the overwhelming majority of the time.

Have you ever seen him over play one pair before?

A hand I rememeber went like this. Bunch of limpers, he raises, limpers call. pot $50, flop: 778dd, biggest nit in the world bets $5 from SB (If you knew him you would know his range here is 88,77), bunch of callers and Villian makes it $50 or something with an 8.
For sure he goes ape **** with flush draws. That said, never seen him with $500 infront of him.

His range is super wide. For sure he can have K4o here for example.

Deleted

Well, I decided I was ahead quite a lot and I should call the flop with the plan to call down unless a spade came. As I called I kind of remembered that this guy had bet sizing tells on later streets. Would bet small with his crap hands and big with big hands. Not really sure if a flush draw on the turn is a big or crap hand in his mind. Anyhoo. Turn was a T and I checked. Villian tanked and gave me the old Hollywood, frowned and sighed, and he bet $200. I asked him if an overpair was any good. He seemed confident that he had the best hand so I folded.

If I could have done it over again I would have just folded on the flop. There are more combinations where he has a 4 and I am drawing dead than flush draw combos.

Wait... you called the flop and folded a brick turn?!? NOOOOOO!!!! Why? Based on your last post about him raising to $50 with an 8 on 877, I wouldn't fold this hand. You're telling me that he also has combo's of weaker Qx here too. You can't flip flop man, gotta go with your read.

This is a horrible line especially against a LAG. If you think he has the 4 on the flop fold, if you think he has the flush draw you have to expect a LAG to shove turn a high percentage of the time which is why it is probably better just to re-pop it on the flop (I doubt he is ever showing up with a weaker queen here). Once you decide to call the flop you have committed yourself. Your hand is very unlikely to improve and it is better to get the money in now while you are good so that in case he does not shove turn he can't escape with his stack on a blank river.

I think only a fool would ignore new information like this and changing your plan is ok imo.

Hard to tell if the holywood/betsize makes this a fold but I don't blame you for folding the turn.