Seriously tho my gorilla in the head math thinks its in the order of 10:1 against not being dealt QQ+ for 700ish hands.

I can do this one. If we say we get 30 hands per hour (you can argue this but I'm gonna use this figure so we get a rough estimate) then that's 460 hands played. We need to figure out the odds of NOT being dealt AA KK or QQ in one given hand, then take the figure and raise it to the 460th power to get our answer.

Odds of being dealt AA: 4/52 * 3/51 = .0045, or (1/221)
Odds of being dealt KK and QQ are the same respectively, so odds of being dealt one of these three hands in a given hand are .01357, or (3/221). So the odds of NOT being dealt one of these hands is 1 - .01357 = .98643, or (218/221). We take this figure and raise it to the 460th power to get our answer, which is .00186, which comes out to 0.186% when converted to a percentage.

So the odds of not being dealt AA KK or QQ in 460 hands (23 hours given 30 hands per hour) are 0.186%.

Bip should confirm this but I'm pretty sure this one is right.

I think Bip will confirm that 23*30 is not 460... He's wicked smart at cipherin'

i got an 800 on the sat. and i somehow think 30 = 20. ok well obviously those numbers need to be changed, but hey, if you play in a slow room and only get 20 hands per hour then those numbers are right!

Just fix it now, instead of raising (218/221) to the 460th power just do it to the 690th. This gives us .00008, or 0.008%. So yeah 690 hands is way way way less likely than 460 hands.

ok, bare with me on this one Bip.

so i pretty much want to use some randomizing feature of the cards to determine when i will have to do push ups while grinding.

i'd like something to come up every 1/2hr-hr, so what would be the best way to determine this?

like, every time i see the A, 25 pushups. or,

every time i'm dealt a PP.

but i can't figure out what i can choose that will come up about every half hour to hour. doesn't need to be exactly within that time frame, but in that ball park.

If i had to guess, i was thinking maybe every time i get dealt a particular hand, disregarding suits, but i'm really not sure and could be completely off.

hope this isn't a derail of the thread

I suggest making it something you wil fold... otherwise an observant opponent MIGHT pick up a tell on you... just sayin'.

[ ] Has a clock on phone with alarm feature

BTW the streak is over. About 3 hands in Sunday night I got KK, raised to $15 and took down the blinds. Overrated.

Got a couple of big pairs Monday.

Think we're at seven sessions without AA though.

Ha well hopefully id be a smart enough to wait until after the hand, and not drop to my hands and knees with AAs and get the clock called on me.

And it's just much more fun to have it random than use and alarm feature, even though that's much more practical.

Every time an A hits the river would be fairly close (1 in 13).

Lol, you actually do push ups at the side of the table every half hour or so? I guess jumping jacks would be too annoying since it might jiggle chips stacks.

A pocket pair comes every 17 hands, which is every half hour at 34 hands per hour.

The idea above about waiting for an Ace on the river doesn't quite work since a lot of hands don't go to the river. A similar idea would be to wait for a particular card in the flop window (or leftmost card on the flop), that would be 1/13, so when you factor in the occasional hand that doesn't see a flop you'd be pretty close to the hourly dealing rate.

GcluelessstatsnoobG

i like that one. i didn't realize the problem with the A otr either. Stats are hard.

I'm gonna try that out tomorrow. choose a random card from a deck at home, and every time that specific card is the "leftmost" card in the deck, thats 25 pushups.

dealers are gonna love this. watch me run good and end completing over 500+ push ups

Today I was dealt pocket aces three hands in a row in my local cardroom. I calculated the odds of this happening as over 1 in 10 million.... And yes, I got paid on all of them. Tripled up on the third one. +950 in 3 hands. ))

That is beyond sick Even online when you see so many more hands, it is rare to get AA _twice_ in a row, and you managed 3! times in a row in live play. That is astonishing

Spam ITT.... Needs Bip's attention

Dead beat thread owner....

Tonight.. Tonight I will be in action

What are the odds of SF over SF?
Are they significantly more if both players have SCs, or if neither do?

Confirmed ::: "semi pro" hard at work no time for insane math problems!!

Don't worry BIP we understand !!

Keep crushing

Depends if 3 or 4 on the board to the SF

Odds that, at any given time at a 10 handed live poker table, you are unknowingly sitting with at least one other 2+2 LLSNL reg/semi-reg poster?

Well, yes, ldo. Kinda looking for odds PF if we see the whole board (given holdings specified), then lets say 3 to SF on flop, and then 4 to SF on turn, or some ish like that.

Parts of the SF vs SF question have been answered ITT before:

Odds to flop SF over SF:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...4&postcount=15
*with a math error... should have been *45, not *90, so half as likely

Odds of royal over SF:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...4&postcount=34
.. no one took me up on the offer to finish the math for the river

BBJ equity guide:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...63/index9.html
Start reading there and it covers odds of losing playing both cards with each suited connector (implying a higher SF) .. and see post #127

Odds of making SF on each street (not helping your question, but related):
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=146

I still like answering these questions and certainly am going to answer:
1) Omaha vs Holdem hands
2) High hand values

... just been busy lately IRL. Bear with me for a few weeks.

I'll have fun with this one

I am going to ballpark the number of LLSNL reg/semi-reg posters at 200.

I am also going to guess there are, on an average poker night, 2,000 LLNSL tables in the English speaking poker market * 9 players each.

I will assume a 2+2 reg plays 30 hours a week and those tables run for 60 hours a week.

So if you are at the table, there are 8 other occupants, then each occupant has a [(0.5 play ratio * 200 players) / 17,999] chance of being a secret 2+2er (* see note below). The odds that none of the other 8 are 2+2:

= (1 - 100 / 17,999) ^ 8 = 0.9564.

1 - 0.9564 = 0.0436... or ~ 1 in 23 chance

*In practice however, there is probably a strong correlation of a 2+2er discovering or being active in 2+2 because of another player in their room. However, this would not be "unknowingly", so it actually reduces the chances of "unkowingly" sitting. Then the real wrench... Vegas... almost certainly it is much more probable to happen in the location a lot of the forum flocks to.

Lol, awesome.

Welcome back to the grind! Sorry, I admit I only read the last two pages. Let me be more specific then, IRT a big beat I took once upon a time.

If both players have only one card of a suit with a four gap (say one has the 8 and the other has the K), what are the odds of SF over SF?