In 2016 I had confirmed

AA vs KK 8 times....Won 4 and lost 4
KK vs AA 11 times...Won 2 and lost 9

Ive had KK vs AA on back to back days. Having it in back to back hours would make me want to throat punch someone. Sucks balls.

Bip!,

What are the odds of set over set? In 2016 I played 1477 hrs. Ive counted several times at random times and get about 40 hands per hour in my room. Lets call that 59000 hands.

I was on the right end and wrong end of set over set 4 times each. Is that about right?
8 set over sets in 59000 hands?

Bip, what are the odds of you updating your P&G or Winrates thread with your 2016 giraffe?

GlikesgiraffesG

Odds of hitting a Bad Beat Jackpot where...

a) AAAKK qualifies (holding pocket aces)
b) TTTT qualifies

I like giraffes too! Lol

.. but sadly 0% chance.

So you're saying there's a chance?

GreadingcomprehensionismystrongsuitG

Well I managed to best my previous mark by snagging KK vs. AA twice in less than two orbits, losing both naturally. Puts the confirmed instances at something like 25+ to 4 against. Yay variance.

After getting:

(8) AA vs KK and (11) KK vs AA in about 1500 hours in 2016 (confirmed at showdown)

Ive only had (2) AA vs KK and (1) KK vs AA in over 650 hours so far in 2017.

Hey Bip! What are the odds of this happening?

A flop comes all one card. In this case its TTT. Someone has the case T
The very next flop come all one card again. The same card again. TTT. And the same player has the case T again. Odds of that please?

I'll take a crack at this one. I'm 10 years removed from any statistics education so bear with me.


We take as a given that the first hand already happened, so the odds of it happening again on the very next hand:

two things needs to happen. First, the flop needs to come TTT, second, a particular player has to have the Case T in his hand.

Flop coming TTT: (4/52)(3/51)(2/50) = 0.00018 (0.018%)

odds of the case T being in a particular player's hand given that the flop is TTT: 1-((48/49)(47/48)) = .041 (4.1%)

odds of both happening: (.00018)(.041) = 0.000007415 = 1 in 134,850


the odds of the next 2 hands playing out like that back to back (where the flop can be any XXX, not necessarily just TTT) would be 1 in 1.3 billion or so.

Kinda rare then?

I dont have such a sick one as Mike, even though i dont see this very often either. Last week a guy got AA versus KK 3 times in the span of like 2 hours, and the same villain had the AA all 3 times.

Local casino offers free lottery tickets daily. What is the value of each ticket?

Each ticket gives you 5 random numbers between 1-99.

There is a weekly drawing of 4 random numbers.

If you match 2, you get $50.
If you match 3, you get $500.
If you match 4, you get $20k.

(multiple winners will split the 20k, or if nobody wins it carries over to 30k next week, 40k the week after, etc... but I think just figure one winner at 20k to make it easier on you, and it'll be close enough to satisfy me)

Odds of winning the big prize is 5c4/99c4 = 5/3764376 = 0.00000132824 or 1 in 752,875

Value of a ticket (before taxes), if we assume you'll win 20,000 if you hit the top prize =

(50 x 5c2 x 94c2 + 500 x 5c3 x 94c1 + 20000 x 5c4) / (99c4) = (2,185,500+470,000+100,000) / 3,764,376 = 73 cents

odds i made an error above?

This feel close to correct but isn't it just:

(50 x 5c2 ÷ 99c2) + (500 x 5c3 ÷ 99c3) + (20000 x 5c4 ÷ 99c4) ?
And if that's the case they are worth roughly 17c each I think.

5c2/99c2 is picking 5 numbers of out 99, drawing 2 and calculating the odds of hitting both. Which is quite different than picking 5 numbers out of 99, drawing 4 and calculating the odds of hitting exactly 2.